Michael's Mets Ramblings

2004-07-08T01:37:00.000-04:00

Slowly but surely ive come around this season. As the Mets have hung around .500, and the Phillies and Marlins took turns refusing to run away with the division, i've let the thought creep into my mind that we could actually compete this year. Tonight victory pushed me over the edge. One gamne back! The Mets are hot right now, they're playing great baseball, and it absolutely could not have come at a better time. We go into Phili tonight staring at a shot to tie for the division lead and the very real possiblity of going into the All-Star break in first place. Hidalgo is on fire and it's changed everything. We have the no. 5 hitter we've needed all year. The big three(who ever could have imagined we would rightfully refer to Leiter/Glavine/Traschel as the big 3?)are cruising except for a rough couple of innings from Tommy Glavine Monday night. And with the incredible parity in the National League right now, that might be enough.

Even Kaz Matsui has started to pick it up, raising his line to the at least respectable 270/339/411. The 73 strikeouts are alot, especially for a 2 hitter, but the 35 walks and 70 points of isolated discipline are decent enough, especially compared to expectations of his plate discipline. His defense has still been a huge dissapointment, and i'd like to see him at second base, but at least he's starting to get it done at the plate. Speaking of which, i came across this interesting split.

As #1 229/309/355 in 231 AB
As #2 330/382/500 in 94 AB

Ya, it's a tiny sample size, and part of it is due to the last week when Matsui has been hot while abtting in the 2 hole, but it sure looks like having Jose Reyes back to lead off is going to help Matsui at the plate.

Looking through the minor leagues...

David Wright has fallen off a bit in AAA. Of course, fallen off still means he's hitting 321/402/605 in his first 81 at bats. It's looking more and more like Ty Wigginton could become mediocre trade bait. Wigginton has been hot lately though, so he probably has at least some trade value. With all the hype last year and the year before with Jose Reyes, has anyone stopped to consider if David Wright right now is a better prospect then Jose Reyes ever was? Reyes tore it up in July and August last year, he has the potential to be superb at shortstop, the most important defensive position other then catcher. He has also consistently been the youngest player at every level he's played in. On the other hand, there is very little question that Wright has the more impressive AA and AAA numbers among the two, is already a superb defender at third base, and has superb plate discipline, the one skill Reyes most lacks. Reyes was rushed through AA and AAA, he never really earned his promotion to the majors. Luckily he responded with amazing success last year after the first month. Wright's play demanded he be promoted to AAA, and if he keeps it up, his play is going to dictate he is promoted to the majors. Keep in mind, David Wright is less then 6 months older then Jose Reyes. Who do you think is the better player right now? Personally, i think it might be Wright.

Victor Diaz is hitting 293/328/466 with 21 2b and 12 HR. It should be noted that Norfolk is an extreme pitcher's park, with a 953 park factor, second in the International League only too Buffalo's 952. Even still, it's obvious that the lack of plate disciplie is hurting Diaz, with a 17/78 BB/K ratio. As i've said all along wtih Diaz, the guy obviously has the ability to hit for a high average (remember the two batting titles), and he's definately got some pop. If he ever learns to take a walk he is going to be an absolute monster, but i have my doubts he is ever going to learn to take a walk. That probably leaves him as a good, but never great hitter, which certainly isnt the worst thing ever.

Hit Good, Walk Bad. Part II: Craig Brazell is hitting 281/311/508 with 13 2B, 19 HR and a 14/60 BB/K. The difference here is that opposed to Victor Diaz, who is used to winning batting titles, the lack of plate discipline is not hurting Craig Brazell. He's doing what he's always done. Hit for a pretty good average and for power without taking any walks. Except this year he's hitting for alot of power. The guy is tied for fourth in home runs in the International League, while playing in one of the two worst hitters parks. And two of the guys ahead of him (Marcus Thames and Justin Morneau) arent in the minors any longer. Craig Brazell stepped up to AAA, and into an extreme pitchers park, still doesnt take a walk, and he's gotten better. At the end of last season i said that if Brazell could step up to AAA and the park in Norfolk and maintain hsi levels of production that maybe i'd start to consider that he was one of those few guys who can succeed without ever taking a walk. I never considered that he'd make the jump and his power would explode. I don't know if im completely convinced yet, but given the long track record, i sure wouldnt want to bet that Brazell can't keep this up and be an effective hitter in the majors.

Aaron Heilman is struggling. His ERA is up to 4.90. His K and K/BB numbers are still good, but he's giving up far too many hits. After crusiing through the minor leagues the first time, i'm sure starting to think that getting rocked last year and sent down this season effected the kids confidence. Actually none of the stockpile of AAA arms has looked particularly impressive, considering they pitch half there innings in an extreme pitchers park.

Matt Peterson is looking good at AA. 17 GS, 95.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, an 83/45 BB/K and a 1.33 WHIP. Still like to see those walks come down a bit, and bring the WHIP with it, his 95.2/87 IP/H numbers are great.

Justin Huber is hitting 273/379/468 with 15 2B, 9 HR, and a 37/50 BB/K in 216 AA at bats. I look at the Isolated Discipline and the Isolated Power, and the really nice BB/K numbers, and i know i should be happy with it even with the 273 mark, which really isnt all that bad anyway. I just can't help but feel that Huber's prospect status has slipped some, especially because of the defensive troubles. Maybe i just got too worked up over the monster FSL number last year. Those really are good numbers, and you've gotta love the batting eye.

Aaron Baldiris is cruising along in the FSL. 299/383/378 with 11 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, and a 40/45 BB/K. Same old story. He doesn't hit for any power, but you have got to love the contact ability and the plate discipline.

2004-07-05T21:22:00.002-04:00

Ya, i know they have the second best record in baseball. And i know in the last decade theyve won four rings and gone to six World Series. I dont care about any of that today though, because we just swept the Yankees! Admit it, none of you care about any of that stuff either, your just reveling in the joy of having swept the Yankees in Shea. Not to mention being 2 games over .500 and just 2 games back in the division. If ever there was a time to go ona hot streak, this is it, heading into a 4 game stand with the division leading Phillies.

I know everyone wasn't thrilled about that Hidalgo trade becaue i nthe end we wound up taking on a couple million dollars in salary for a guy who, talented as he may be, was struggling badly.

Richard Hidalgo as a Met:

15 G 60 AB 350/409/800 8 HR, 3 2b, 14 R, 13 RBI

Didn't think so. There's very little doubt who has kick started this offense. With Hidalgo on a tear, the Mets 3-4-5 is deadly. Not being able tp pitch around Piazza and Floyd changes everything. Pitchers have to throw Matsui more strikes in the 2 hole because if walking him means potential trouble with Piazza/Floyd/Hidalgo waiting. When Floyd comes up in an RBI situation, he cant simply be pitched around to get to the relatively easy outs that were formerly occupying our 5 spot in the batting order.

So we'll eat 2 million in salary. We're still a New York team. Our focus still needs to be for the future, and we shouldnt be trading away any real prospects. But its the middle of the season, we're in the thick of the pennant race, with the best team ERA in the majors, and we havent even been healthy or really played well yet. So why the hell shouldnt we go for it if we can get a few pieces without trading away pieces of the future? Does anyone miss Jeremy Griffths and David Weathers? I sure don't. The latest rumors have the Mets looking to deal Ty Wigginton for some starting pitching, because of the emergence of David Wright. If we're absolutely sure that Wright is ready, i dont really have any problem trading Wigginton, but im not sure what kind of starting pitching the Mets think they'll get for Wigginton. The guy is a stopgap third basemen. I've said many times,a nd i still believe, that given the time to develope he'll be an average or even slightly better then average MLB third basemen. But for most teams, thats nothing more then a stopgap. I just can't see Wigginton as the main player in a trade for any good starting pitcher. And i'm in no hurry to get Wright up. Let him take as much time as we need. Ty Wigginton is a perfectly adequate third basemen for a competitive team.

MLB Third Basemen: 273/344/450(794) and a 273 EqA
Ty Wigginton: 271/315/475(790) and a 277 EqA and 12.9 VORP (8th of 17 NL third basemen with at least 200 PA)

2004-07-05T21:22:00.001-04:00

2004-07-05T21:22:00.000-04:00

2004-06-28T01:00:00.000-04:00

Could David Wright be our third basemen by the end of this season? I am sure starting to think so. A couple of weeks ago i wrote on how Wright was absolutely dominated the Eastern League, ranking among the league leaders in almost every major offensive category. At the time, i said that i expected him to soon get a promotion to AAA, and sure enough, Wright was soon promoted to AAA. He left the Eastern league 2nd in avg (363) 1st in OBP (467) and 2nd in SLG (619). Oh yeah, he was second in stolen bases too (20) just as a bonus.

In his first 13 AAA games Wright is hitting 347/428/735 with 4 home runs and 7 doubles. i really, really love this kid. Did i mention he's still 6 months shy of his 22nd birthday? Seriously... I really, really love this kid.

2004-06-28T00:09:00.000-04:00

Is anyone else starting to really leave the complete mediocrity of the NL East this year? Despite the Mets best efforts, they just can't play their way out of the pennant race yet. And while im on the subject of feelings, is anyone else starting to really hate playing the Yankees? Don't get me wrong. I enjoy the Mets-Yankees games, but i'm starting to get really sick of having seven interleague games against the best team in baseball every year, while the rest of the division gets those 7 games against an easier opponent. Unfortunately, i can't bring myself to say i want the games eliminated, or even cut down. I watch baseball for enjoyment, and i can't deny that i enjoy the Mets-Yankees games. I reserve the right to change my opinion on this if i ever feel like it costs the Mets a playoff spot.

Speaking of playoff spots, and the Yankees, the Mets lost both ends of a double header tonight to those guys from the Bronx and dropped to 3.5 games back in the division. That makes us 1-3 for the 4 games stand at Yankee Stadium, which is pretty typical (sigh). On the bright side, Richard Hidalgo hit two home runs in the nightcap, so maybe he's starting to come out of his slump. Hidalgo could make a huge difference in this lineup. With Reyes finally healthy and playing, and Hidalgo replacing the ex-Yankees in right field, our lineup should look something like this. Reyes/Matsui/Piazza/Floyd/Hidalgo/Cameron/Wigginton/Phillips. I realize that this will make the 358th time i've said this about the Mets in recent months, and it's yet to happen, but that really looks like a solid lineup. Hopefully moving him out of the leadoff spot will help Matsui, who up to this point has been a huge dissapointment, both at the plate and in the field. I didnt expect big things from Matsui, but 253/327/378 just isnt cutting it. Far from it. The only acceptable part of that line is the isolated discipline is fine, which is strange, considering that was the biggest knock on him coming over. Matsui needs to raise that batting average about 30 points, and add some pop, or he can't be considered anything but a complete bust. Especially since his supposedly stellar defense is far from reported. His range isnt what it was reported to be, his arm is weak, and he hasn't looked particularly sure handed. We really need to move Reyes, his superb range, and cannon arm back to shortstop next year. Matsui will be better off at second base where his range will be greater and his weak arm won't be an issue.

Thirteen games left to the All-Star break. Three at the Reds, three vs the Yankees at home, four at Philadelphia, and three at the Marlins. Then we come out of the break with four against the Phils and two against the Phish, all at home. This will mark our second golden chance to make a serious run at the division, with 13 straight games against the two teams ahead of us. If memory serves, the last time we had one of these, we went exactly .500 (seems to be at rend this season), and ended it right where we started. Thats just not going to cut it this time. Not if we are serious about competing for the playoffs. I can't speak for anyone else, but entering July and in the thick of the pennant race, i'm no longer focusing on respectability. I've got my sites set square on the division.

2004-06-20T18:52:00.000-04:00

34-34 2.5 games back. Does anyone else feel like we've been treading water for a month now? I sure do. It seems like everytime ive update dthe last two weeks we're right at .500 and around 3 games back. Not that im complaining mind you. We're not far from July and the Mets are in the thick of the pennant race. Thats good enough for me. Especially since the only people that have really played well are the top 3 pitchers, the closer and the catcher.

A couple of days ago the Mets decided that the ex-yankee right field platoon just wasn't cutting it, and went out and got Richard Hidalgo from Houston. Let's have a look at the trade.

We Get:

Richard Hidalgo - RF - Age 28
2000 314/391/636 w/ 86 xbh(44 HR)and 56/110 BB/K in 558 AB
2001 275/356/455 w/ 48 xbh(19 HR)and 54/107 in 512 AB
2002 235/319/415 w/ 32 xbh(15 HR)and 43/85 in 388 AB
2003 309/385/572 w/ 71 xbh(28 HR)and 58/104 in 514 AB

The question her is real simple? Which Hidalgo will we get? The guy's obviously got the ability to be a top notch hitter, and he is in the middle of what should be his prime years, but it's hard to know what his real level of play is. Somehow i doubt it's the 2000 campaign, which strikes me as a career year, but after that it's just confusing. He came back in 2001 and was a perfectly adequate right fielder(OPS above .800) but far from an all star. In 2002 he was possibly the worst right fielder in the majors. And then last year he had a huge comeback, and could have been a legitimate all star, almost certainly would have been if he played anything other then corner outfield (or first base), batting over .300 with an OPS above 950. So what Hidalgo havewe seen this year? Naturally, it's almost impossible to say.

April: 364/622/986 - This looks like a Barry Bonds line, except Bonds was even more ridiculous in April
May: 284/281/565 - Well, that wouldnt be bad if it werent for the complete lack of plate discipline, and not a single home run.
June: 189/171/361- Uh Oh

So who knows which version of Richard Hidalgo we are getting. But at least we've got a guy with some potential now. He might suck it up out there. But he might be our new cleanup hitter too. And if you were wondering what effect Minute Maid Park has had on his numbers, since it is regarded as one of the best hitter's parks in baseball...

Three Year Split (2001-2003)

Home: 287/367/497 w/ 72 xbh(28 HR)in 684 AB
Away: 267/347/477 w/ 79 xbh(34 HR)in 730 AB

Doesn't really tell you a whole lot does it? Looks like the park formerly known as Enron has helped his batting average a little bit, but his IsoP is exactly the same, so it hasn't helped his power. This guy is just a total mystery. He could come to Shea, not exactly known as a hitter's park, and suck it up. Or he could become our new cleanup hitter. At the very worst, he's probably a defensive upgrade in right field. He's not fast, but covers ground well, is fairly sure handed, and has a cannon for an arm. So is the defensive upgrade and the chance for a great hitter worth what we gave up? Let's take a look at the guys we sent out of town.

They Get:

David Weathers - RHP - Age 34

2001: 86 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 66/34 K/BB
2002: 77.1 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 61/36 K/BB
2003: 87.2 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 75/40 K/BB

Jeremy Griffiths - RHP - Age 26

2001(A+): 132 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP 95/35 K/BB
2002(AA): 152.2 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 126/54 K/BB
2003(AAA): 115 IP, 2.74 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 78/26 K/BB

Weathers? Perfectly nice relief pitcher. Walks a few too many guys but always keeps the ERA down. He makes way too much money, and as a right handed relief pitcher who doesn't throw particularly hard, he is easily replaceable. Bloggers ahve been suggesting we trade Weathers for awhile now, though the idea was to swing him for prospects, and possibly save some money, not exactly what happened here. All the same, he's no great loss, and it will allow a younger, cheaper player to take his spot.

How about Griffiths? Well, he's got a nice minor league career behind him. He's gotten shlled in the majors, but you cant make any judgements from 41 innings. He's got real good command, and strikes out a respectable amount of guys, but he's far from overpowering, and has always bene a little old for his league. My gut feeling is that Griffiths will turn into a decent back of rotation starter, but never be anything more then a competent no. 4 or 5.

So was it worth it? I think so. You've gotta think so. The Astros are sending some cash our way (about 4 million reportedly) which will make the money a wash. Weathers is meaningless to us, with a logjam of young right handed relief arms inthe system. Basically it comes down to Hidalgo vs Griffiths from our perspective. There's only a two year age difference, and Hidalgo has already shown the ability to succeed in the majors. You've gotta figure there's at least as good of a chance that Hidalgo will be an above average right fielder for us as there was that jeremy Griffiths would be an above average starting pitcher. Plus Hidalgo plays to one of our weaknesses. The Mets have a ton of candidates for the last few spots in the rotation, but we're rather short on competent outfielders through every level of the system. When you consider that, plus the fact that there's always the cahnce Hidalgo returns to All Star status (something which i find highly unlikely Griffiths will ever reach), then i think this is a good gamble. If Hidalgo struggles, then we've lost a relief pitcher we dont need and a possible back end of the rotation starter whose not a difference maker. If Hidalgo works out we've got the Mets best right fielder since..who knows, Darryl Strawberry? Am i forgetting someone? Our outfield has really been awfult the last decade. I like this gamble. Its something that isnt going to make this team worse, but has the possiblity to make us much better. Its almost July, and we're in the pennant race, so why not try and get better? So long as they don't trade away any prospects, any possible pieces of the future, i've got no problem with Duquette swinging a couple trades that could help us down the stretch. Hey. ya never know With this trade he gave us a shot at getting better for a pennant race, without giving up anything of any importance to our future, or anything of any real value to us right now. So why not go for it? Good move by the Duke.

2004-06-15T17:15:00.000-04:00

Im still alive. sorry i havent posted in two weeks, but i just dont have the time right now. Im going to try real hard to write at least something in the next day or two. In the meantime, im sure your all enjoying the Mets blogs listed onthe sidebar to the right. If your not, you should be

2004-06-03T01:24:00.000-04:00

Todd Zeile baby! I can't speak for anyone else, but if the mets manage to pull off the impossible and make the palyoffs this season, i will be thinking back to the two games Todd Zeile just won to pull us back to .500 and keep us in the division race as we roll into June. The Mets will try to get above .500 and within 2.5 games of the division tommorow night at Shea. Jae Seo goes against AJ Burnett, in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. Apparently A.J. wasnt very pleased about the fact that he won't be making his first start in sunny Florida. Alot of people maintain that Burnett was/is the best of the Marlin's young pitchers. Think about that for a second. Josh Becket was predicted by some to win the Cy Young this year. Brad Penny has finally put his great stuff together and is dominating. Dontrelle Willis won the RoY award last year (as always, i feel the need to point out that Brandon Webb deserved the award). Carl Pavano was once rated the #1 prospect in all of baseball by BA. And now they're getting a guy back from injury who is considered better then all of them. That's just scary. If they get a new stadium, and some real revenue, the Marlins are going to be good for a long, long time.

2004-06-01T23:33:00.000-04:00

Al Leiter came off the DL tonight, pitching five shutout innings but once again failing to get the win. The Mets almost blew the game altogether, but Zeile came through with a solo homer in the 8th to tie it, and then Kaz Matsui finally did what he was brought here to do. He got on base to lead off the tenth, stole second base, and then scored the go ahead run on Zeile's single. It's about time. While we're on the topic of Kaz Matsui, here's a little tidbit from Peter Gammons latest notes, in case anyone missed it.

Don't be surprised if the Mets ask Kaz Matsui to switch places with Jose Reyes next year. But first they think they can address Matsui's vision problems; part of his problem defensively is that he hasn't been able to pick up the catchers' signs and set himself.

The vision part is interesting, but what really caught my eye here was the part about the Mets possibly shifting Reyes back to short. I don't know a single Mets fan that wouldnt be thrilled with that move. Of course, thats assuming Reyes is healthy, a situation that is really starting to frustrate me. It's now June, we've played nearly 1/3 of the season and the prized jewel of our organization has yet to play a game. Actually, with all the problems we've had..Reyes, Leiter's stint on the DL, Floyd's injury, the collapse of Jason Phillips, a completely unstable back end of the rotation, no bullpen to speak of besides Braden Looper and Orber Moreno, among other things, it's really pretty amazing that we're 25-26, just one game under .500. Glavine, Traschel, Piazza, and Leiter when healthy have carried this team to respectability so far. So if we ever get everyone healthy and playing well, i honestly believe this team might compete for a playoff spot. We're two months into the season, and hovering around .500. I have a feeling that one stretch, good or bad is going to define this season. If we can roll of a nice winning streak, we're set up for a pennant race. One long losing streak, and it's time to trade off pieces we don't need and looks towards 2005. I mentioned last week that this current set of games agianst Florida and Philadelphia could be that stretch. For now, we're still hovering around .500, going 3-4 (and getting swept by the Marlins, who always seem to have our number) and dropping 1.5 games in the standings. We're going to need to figure out the Phish, with 4/5 remaining games in this stretch against them. Another bad series against them and we risk dropping 6-7 games back in the division, which would probably be too large a gap to make up unless we really started rolling off the wins.

With all the talk over Clemens and Johnson, is Tom Glavine getting overlooked a little bit outside of new York? Maybe i'm biased a bit, but if i were voting for the Cy YOung right now, i'd have a real hard time deciding between Clemens, Johnson and Glavine. His run support has cost him a bit with that 6-3 record, but Glavine could very easily be 9-1. Another tidbit from Gammons that im surprised i didnt catch elsewhere..

According to Lee Sinin's Neutral Winning Percentage, Tom Glavine, Jake Peavy and Brad Penny are 1-2-3 in the NL.

He's no. 2 in ERA in the NL behind Peavy(2.17), second in WHIP behind Johnson(0.92), and no. 1 in OPSA(.517). At this point, i think it will be hard to overcome the Clemens/Johnson express if one of them wins 20 games, but itll be a real shame if Glavine keeps this up for a whole season and doesnt win another Cy Young. Either way, if he finishes the season with another ERA under 3, and 16+ wins, i think he's solidified his case for Cooperstown. Glavine goes for win no. 7 tommorow against the Phillies and Randy Wolf.

Pitching mathcups for the rest of our games against the Phillies and the Phish..

Glavine vs. Wolf
Seo vs. Pavano
Traschel vs Phelps
Ginter vs ??? (Becket now on the DL)
Leiter vs Penny

We get our big three ofr 3/5 games. If we can win those 3, that would make us 6-6 for this stretch, which would be...acceptable. We really need tos tep it up agaisnt Florida though. I dont have the numbers in front of me, but my memory tells me that the Phish have owned us the last couple years.

Just one more thing i wanted to mention. Could David Wright be in Shea by the end of this season? It's sure starting to look like it. His numbers in AA are beyond good.

186 AB 349/460/591 (1051) 21 2B, 8 HR, 32/37 BB/K, 19 SB, 5 CS (79%)

To put it in league context. .349 Avg (3rd), .460 OBP (1st), .591 SLG (2nd), 21 2b (3rd), 32 BB (1st), 19 SB (2nd)

Need i go on? It's only a matter of time before he gets promoted to AAA. If he hits well there, it will be hard to justify keeping him down, unless we're in the middle of a pennant race and Wigginton is playing well. Theres always the argument for not starting his service time clock, but i dont really buy that in our case. It starts the arbitration clock a little earlier, but a player is going to get to arbitration sooner or later anyway, it doesnt really save any money. The real thing about starting service time is when a player will be eligibile for free agency. And let's be honest, we're one of the few organizations lucky enough to not have to worry about that. In our case, being a well run organization means signing ur stars early and locking them up, not maxing out the value of there 6 years before free agency.

Life's a bit busy right now, but i'll try and post again tommorow after the game

2004-06-01T21:26:00.000-04:00

Busy week, but i'll be back in a couple hours with a long post

2004-05-26T04:45:00.000-04:00

After shutting out the Phillies tonight, the Mets are 23-22, 1 game over .500 and 2 back in the division. Is it possible we could hang in this race? Could we actually compete for the playoffs? If you would've told me that going into memorial day weekend Glavine/Leiter/Traschel would make a case for the best top 3 of the season so far, i wouldve laughed in your face. Seriously I'm in shock, i cant even think of what to write. I'm just going to enjoy this for as long as it lasts

2004-05-25T20:51:00.000-04:00

Oh the joys of a new machine. Time was that I didn't have any music on my computer. Since most all of the music I listen to is live shows, and live shows are usually around 1 GB, I couldn't keep it on my old 20 GB hard drive. I'd keep space to D/l one show, and burn it straight to disc so I could D/L another. Now, with he 200 GB hard drive, I'm reveling in the joys of downloading massive amounts of completely lossless (via .shn or .flac)live music. It really is a beautiful thing. And whoever created the Live Music Archive deserves a thank you note from live, improvisational music connoisseurs everywhere. No, more then that, we all should get together build a giant stature in his/her honor somewhere, because it might be the greatest thing to ever happen to the jamband scene. If there's anyone out there reading my site that shares my love for this music, and i'm sure there's at least a couple of you, feel free to drop me a line if you want to trade some shows. Here's ten randomly selected files from my winamp playlists to give you an idea of what kind of shows i collect.

1.String Cheese Incident 7/4/98 from High Sierra Music Fesitval
2.Grateful Dead 7/8/78 from Red Rocks
3.Bela Fleck 2/11/03 from Pompano Beach,FL
4. Yonder Mountain String Band 2/10/04 from Tampa,FL
5. Yonder Mountain String Band 12/31/02 from Denver,CO
6. Keller Williams 2/1/02 from Greenville,NC
7. Grateful Dead 2/15/73 from Madison,WI
8. Garcia & Grisman w/ Bela Fleck 8/25/91 from Squaw Valley, CA
9. Blueground Undergrass 10/6/02 from New Orleans, LA
10. Yonder Mountain String Band 1/31/03 from St Louis, MO

Can ya tell i like the bluegrass side of the Jamband scene? That's reflected heavily in that list, and the three Yonder shows is pretty representative of the actualy balance, since im collecting YMSB shows like a crazed madman since i started getting into them. But i've also got a wide array of shows from the other spectrums of the jamband scene. Phish, Medeski, Martin, and Wood, the Disco Biscuits, Karl Denson, the Jazz Mandolin Project, and much more. I'm seeking a couple new trading partners to diversify my collection, so if your out there, you've got great music, and you want more great music, send me an e-mail. For the rest of you, sorry for the non baseball related stuff, but i wanted to post this. Never know where you'll find someone with some choice jamband shows for trading

2004-05-23T15:49:00.000-04:00

Tom Glavine just finished up one of the greatest pitching performances in the 42 year history of the Mets. 9 IP 1 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB. I know i should be happy. I should be happy about the fact that Tom Glavine is pitching so well this year, making a legitimate case for the Cy Young, along wtih Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. I should be happy about the absolute gem of a game he just threw. I should be, but i'm not. Not when Tom Glavine just came 4 outs from a no-hitter. 42 years and not a single no-hitter in Mets history. 42 years! I can't be the only one that cares about this can i? Koosman, Ryan, Seaver, Gooden, Cone, Viola, Saberhagen, Leiter...there have been some damn good pitchers on this team over the years, and those are just the guys off the top of my head who spent at least two full seasons on the team, i'm sure i'm forgetting some good pitchers. Everyone on that list except Koosman and Viola has thrown at least one no-hitter in there career. Seaver, Gooden, Cone, Viola, and Saberhagen are all Cy Young winners. (Of those that didnt win the Cy Young, Koosman had two top tens and finished second in 1976, Ryan was second in 1973 and top five in the voting 6 times, Leiter has two top tens and was a legitimate candidate to win in 1998.)42 years, lots of great pitchers, and not one no hitter in a Mets uniform. I've been waiting for it to happen since i was a little kid, and i really thought today was the day. Four outs to go, and Glavine was cruising, and he was back to the bottom of the order. Everything looked so perfect. And then some guy named Kit Pellow slashes a double to deep right. Kit Pellow?! Who the hell is Kit Pellow?! That was a rehtorical question, but i'm going to answer it anyway. Kit Pellow is a 30 yr old career minor leaguer, that has a grand total of 162 big league at bats. Tom Glavine, likely Hall of Famer, just lost his bid for the first no-hitter in Mets history to a career minor leaguer with 4 outs to go. Just makes you want to scream doesn't it?

While today's game left a bittersweet feeling in my mouth, there's no mixed feelings about this...

N.L. East

PHI 24-18 -
FLA 24-18 -
NYM 22-22 3
ATL 22-20 4
MTL 14-29 10.5

(The Marlins are currently losing 4-2 to Arizona in the 7th)

Folks, it's not early anymore. We've played 44 games. Thats slightly more then 27% of the schedule. It's not early anymore. And the Mets are at .500 even, just 3 games out of 1st. 7-3 in our last 10, and we just swept Colorado. And guess where the schedule is taking us?

Tue. 25 Philadelphia
Wed. 26 Philadelphia
Fri. 28 at Florida
Sat. 29 at Florida
Sun. 30 at Florida
Mon. 31 at Philadelphia
Tue. 1 at Philadelphia
Wed. 2 at Philadelphia
Thu. 3 Florida
Fri. 4 Florida
Sat. 5 Florida
Sun. 6 Florida

Right at the division leaders. If there's a time to be playing good ball, this is it for the Mets. At the exact time we're getting into the race, we've got a chance to vault right into 1st place with 12 straight games against the two teams ahead of us. It's not yet June, but i don't think im exaggerating when i say that this 12 game stretch could make or break our season right here. And unfortunatley we might hae to do it without our second best pitcher this year, with Al Leiter now officially on the DL after missing two starts. We can only pray that the trip to the DL is short lived. The May 20th move was done retroactive to May 12th (the day after his last start), and so Leiter is eligible to come off as soon as Thursday, and could pitch as soon as the 3rd game of this run, Friday the 28th at Florida. Though even if he's ready i suspect the Mets will let Matt Ginter make another start, and slot Leiter back into his no. 5 slot in the rotation. Which in itself is kind of interesting. From the beginning of the year, the Mets have chosen to pitch Leiter last, meaning he pitches the day before Glavine, kinda like how some AL teams will use a pseudo second leadoff hitter in the 9 slot. And they've had the rotation set this way the whole year. It was supposed to be Glavine, Traschel, Erickson, Yates, Leiter. That became Glavine, Traschel, Seo, Yates/Baldwin/Ginter, Leiter. No matter what happens with the 3/4 guys, the Mets seem to like Glavine in the 1st spot, Traschel, in the second, and Leiter in the fifth. Or in practice, once the season gets rolling, Leiter, followed by Glavine, followed by Traschel. This just begs the question, why? Especially since the rumors were that the Mets were trying to skip the fifth starter's spot as much as possible this year. And to some extent, they have, but only if you consider the Yates/Baldwin/Ginter spot the fifth. In reality, Leiter is the fifth man, based on the opening week rotation. In practice however, Leiter (when he's pitching) has effectively become the No. 1 in the rotation, with the Yates/Baldwin/Ginter spot becoming the no. 5. However you figure it, the mets seem intent on pitching Leiter, Glavine, Traschel, in that order. So why not just set the rotation that way from the start? Did they wan that badly to start Glavine on opening day, even if there preferred rotation has Leiter at the top? It just doesn't make any sense to me.

Enough with that tangent though, let's have a look at the possible starting pitching matchups for this stretch. This is assuming Leiter is healthy, and Ginter remians in the no. 4 (pseudo no.5) spot.

Tue. 25 Philadelphia Traschel vs Eric Milton
Wed. 26 Philadelphia Seo vs Brett Myers
Fri. 28 at Florida Ginter vs Dontrelle Willis
Sat. 29 at Florida Leiter vs Carl Pavano
Sun. 30 at Florida Glavine vs Josh Beckett
Mon. 31 at Philadelphia Traschel vs Brett Myers
Tue. 1 at Philadelphia Seo vs Kevin Millwood
Wed. 2 at Philadelphia Ginter vs Randy Wolf
Thu. 3 Florida Leiter vs Carl Pavano
Fri. 4 Florida Glavine vs Josh Beckett
Sat. 5 Florida Traschel vs Darren Oliver
Sun. 6 Florida Seo vs Brad Penny

In my plan, Traschel and Seo get the extra start for us, going 3 times each, with Leiter/Glavine/Ginter going twice each. Seo is scaring me this year, but Traschel has been excellent. I've actually overlooked that in how good Glavine and Leiter have been. The truth is our top 3 have all been superb, except for Leiter's injury. They've really carried this team.

It's a good thing Glavine is pitching well (to say the least), because he draws Josh Beckett twice. Leiter draws Carl Pavano twice. And you've gotta love how the opposing rotations are set up, drawing Brad Penny (they're best pitcher right now) only once in seven games, and getting the back end of Phili's rotation for 3/5 games.

2004-05-18T13:05:00.000-04:00

One of these days someone is going to explain to me how sportwriters who are so bad at there job manage to not only keep thosejobs, but are actually considered good at them by the mainstream press and fans. Every so often i'll use this blog to call out a writer who i think deserves it, and today it's time to call out ESPN writer Buster Olney. I first started noticing Mr Olney about a year ago, at the beginning of last baseball season. I've never been particularly impressed. I've found his writing generally unoriginal, uncreative, and only as informed as your typical ingorant baseball fan (i.e. those who still maintain Jeter is a good defensive shorstop). But before today i've never seen him write anything that just screamed to be corrected. Ironically, it comes in the middle of an article that i otherwise agree with, probably the first of his articles that i do agree with. The focus of the article is Derek Jeter, andhis slump at the plate this season. Mr Olney blames, or at least alludes to blaming Jeter's lack of plate discipline, using Barry Bonds, and Carlos Beltran, among others, as examples of players who've taken all there natural talent and refined it by learning to work the count in there favor. And bravo to him for that. He couldnt be more right. Towards the end of the article however, he loses all credibility. Not even on a sabertric, or stat related issue. Not on a matter of opinion or analysis. Just on a simple issue of facts, because if a guy can't get his facts straight about a 5 time all star that is the subject of his entire article, then what fatih can we have in the rest of his writing? Here is the lead in to the conclusion of Mr. Olney's article.

Jeter's at-bats tend to get more focused in the postseason; his plate discipline improves as he picks and chooses from pitch to pitch. During the regular season, however, he is what he is and what he probably will always be, without evolution.

Now, i don't know about the rest of you, but when i read that a few thoughts started forming in my head. The first one was that i was almost postiive that last October i'd seen or read something showing that Jeter's regular season and postseason stats are almost identical. I think it was in a Rob Neyer article on the perception of clutch, but i'm not really sure. In any case, i immediately decided to go and look if Buster Olney was actually correct, or if he was, as i suspected, just remembering Jeter as better then he really was in the postseason, and didnt bother to actually go check his facts before publishing them on the most widely read sports website in the nation. Being the critic of mainstream media (or most of it anyway) that i am, and fairly sure that Mr. Olney was wrong, i decided i'd go and have a look for myself. So was i correct, in thinking Mr. Olney had published something completley and utterly false? Have a look for yourself

9 Seasons 1212 4870 926 1546 239 41 127 615 178 48 513 873 .317 .389 .462 2248 34 28 18 78 103
20 Postseason Ser 16-4 99 392 69 123 16 3 13 33 42 79 .314 .385 .469 13 3 5 3 5

9 Seasons - IsoD = .072
20 PS Ser IsoD = .071

So just for the record, Jeter's plate discipline has been almost exactly the same in October as it has been in April - September. Actually, Jeter's entire postseason stats are so close to his regular season stats that they might as well be identical.

I run an amateur Mets website, my research is limited to free internet material, and it took me, oh i dont know, 45 seconds or so to look this up via Baseball Reference. Buster Olney writes for ESPN. In that position he has access to any and every source of information he could possibly need. The guy can call the Elias Sports Bureau to provide him with information if he needs to, ok? There's simply NO excuse for him publishing something so blatantly and obviously wrong about one of the five most recognizable baseball players in the world.

2004-05-17T22:26:00.001-04:00

The Mets just went 4-1 on the road against Johnson, Webb, Oswalt, Pettite, and Cy Clemens. (btw, much as i hate him, i am now convinced that Clemens is the greatest pitcher since Tom Seaver, even if he didnt deserve that last Cy Young award, and with all due respect to Greg Maddux.) 4-1! Needless to say, i'm shocked. We're still two games under .500, but i said before that if we went 4-1 against that lineup of road games i would regain some hope for the season, and i meant it. I have officially gone from wait till next year to "well, maybe there's a slim chance if a lot of things go right." We are only 3.5 back after all, and the 163 RS / 161 RA suggests we've actually been a bit unlucky so far. Plus, we've been without Jose Reyes the entire year, and Cliff Floyd for most of it. (While I'm on the topic, would someone please tell me what the fuck is going on with Jose Reyes? Its damn near June, and i havent heard a thing about when he may return other then the obligatory "we're not going to rush him".) So ya, maybe, just maybe, if Leiter is ok, Floyd stays healthy, Reyes comes back soon and doestns lump, and we get some good bounces, we could actually compete into September. I'm not counting on it tho.

Mike Piazza is moving to first base. No really, we mean it this time. We swear. According to Art Howe, Piazza, now the all time home run leader for catchers, will be spending the majority of his time at first from now on. Howe expects Piazza to continue to catch about twice a week. Gammons ahd a comment on Baseball Tonight that i found interesting. This is heresay, but supposedly Piazza said something to Todd Zeile along the lines of "If i'd known how much fresher i'd be playing 1st, i would have done this a long time ago." It was everything i could do not to scream when i heard that. What exactly did Piazza think was the point of moving him to 1st?

Last thing i wanted to mention was my two cents on the Star Leder article that Jeremy Heit talked about today.

"No matter what Wilpon says about Seattle's negotiating tactics and no matter how many conspiracy theories you have heard about the Mariners trying to force Piniella to Tampa, the Mets could have had the right man to replace Bobby Valentine (who probably didn't need to be fired anyway) if they had been willing to make a decent trade offer."

Probably? There's no probably about it. Valentine was/is an excellent manager, and was perfect for New York. I've gone over my argument before, not going to rehash it all now. Sufficed to say that i still havent gotten over the Valentine firing. Which is why i liked this line so much...

"Don Baylor also would have a shot at the Mets job, as would Valentine. Fred Wilpon has indicated he would consider rehiring Valentine some day, but Jeff Wilpon would probably fight that move"

I'd never even considered the possiblity of the Wilpons rehiring Valentine, but him and Fred did were always reported to have a good relationship, so i suppose it's possible. This is probably jsut a case of a reporter just throwing his opinion out there, but being a reporter for the Star Ledger and all, the guy is in as good a positionas anyone not in the Mets organization to judge. I'm not putting a whole lot of stock into it, but it's still good to hear. Needless to say, i'd be in full support of it, and i'd be more then willing to buy out Art Howe to make it happen.

2004-05-17T22:26:00.000-04:00

2004-05-14T05:43:00.000-04:00

Well, we're off to a pretty nice start on this 5 game murderer's row of pitchers, having beaten both Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb. Next up is Houston's big three of Oswalt, Clemens, Pettite. If we take just one of the three, i'll consider this little stretch succesful at 3-2. If we manage to take 2/3 to make it 4/5 against this lineup of pitchers, i might actually regain some hope for the season (at which point of course, the Mets will come crashing down).

Al Leiter is headed back to New York to have an MRI on his left shoulder. Not good folks. Having Leiter and Glavine pitching so well at the top of the rotation is the only thing going right this season. The Senator on the DL is the last thing we need. The MRI is scheduled for later today, and Peter Gammons is reporting that Leiter will miss his start Sunday. Hopefully we'll know more about this tonight. In the meantime i've updated his numbers to the right, and I've added Tom Glavine up there, since he's a legitimate candidate for the award right now. Of course, if the season ended today, Clemens would win the CY Young unanimously, but it doesnt end today, and things can change. Tonight we go against Roy Oswalt. Im rooting for a pitching duel, won 1-0 by the Mets (I -might- have Oswalt on my fantasy team).

2004-05-12T22:39:00.000-04:00

Next up for the Mets: a matchup tonight with Randy Johnson, followed by Brandon Webb and then, in Houston, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and an undefeated Roger Clemens.

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm nailing down anything small enough to be thrown at the TV. Just as a precaution.

2004-05-11T11:58:00.001-04:00

In a truly shocking turn of events, James Baldwin got hammered last night. No, hammered is too nice a word. James Baldwin got massacred last night.

2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 0 K

I gotta tell ya folks, i'm stunned. Who'd have thought a soft tossing righty with a career ERA over 5 wouldnt pitch well in his first major league start in nearly two years? Certainly not me. Frankly i'm at a loss. I can't speak for anyone else, but I for one was convinced that the career 5.02 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .805 OPSA was just an 8 year fluke. Surely he'd capitalize on that devastating 89 MPH fastball eventually right? Not to mention the mediocre (at best) cutter, and the very hittable curve. "This guy's just a Cy Young waiting to happen if he can ever put it all together" i said to myself when we signed him, "What a great move by the Duke, this could be the guy that vaults us into playoff contention, maybe even the Series". You can all deny it now, but you know damn well that every one of you was thinking the same thing. C'mon...on the downside of his career, ERA+ of 92 over 8 major leauge seasons, has already undergone major shoulder surgery, what wasn't to love? He's even prone to giving up the long ball. Admit it, you all know you were just as excited as i was to get this guy.

The real question we have to ask ourselves now is what went wrong here. How could a pitcher with such potential have possibly gone out there and gotten shelled? So far i've consulted with Bill James, Sandy Koufax, a local Psychic, noted sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman, the voodoo medicine man who hangs out down at the gas station, Paul Depodesta, Peter Gammons, Kevin Costner, the Jedi Council, Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson, the shaman at the indian casino in seminole, Tony LaRussa, and Perry Mason (just in case there was foul play involved), and no one has any idea. I've consulted the texts of philosophers, everything from Plato to the Emanuelle Kant, from Descartes and his metaphysical rationalism to Hume and his staunch empiricism. I've reviewed the texts of the Torah, the Bible, the Koran, and the sacred texts of Buddhism. I've even travelled to Rivendell to consult with Elrond and the White Council to be sure this wasn't a possible sign of the return of Sauron. And still nothing. No explanation for how Jmaes Baldwin could possibly have pitched poorly. If anyone out there has any theories, i'd be happy to hear them. Just send them to stunned@JamesBaldwinRules.com. I'll get back to you with my thoughts as soon as i'm done with my e-mail to Jim Duquete, asking him to not give up on Baldwin yet, and to give his amazing talent another shot.

2004-05-10T19:16:00.000-04:00

Well, so much for the 4 game winning streak. We lost 2 out of 3, and came dangerously close to getting swept by the lowly Brewers. Even worse, it happened at Shea, where we had actually been playing halfway decent ball. What i really want to talk about though, is the fact that James Baldwin is starting for us tonight in Arizona. I've got no problem sending Tyler Yates down. He's pitched well at times, but Yates could pretty clearly benefit from some moe polishing time. But James Baldwin? No offense to the 32 yr old right hander, whose pitched very well in AAA (2.90 ERA 24/5 K/BB in 31 IP), but couldnt we come up with someone better? Someone please show me the compelling reason to give Baldwin a shot? I could half live with the Erickson decision, as much as it aggrivated me, because at least Erickson was once a very effective pitcher. Has anyone here, or anyone in the Mets organization actually looked at Baldwin's history? The Dodgers picked him up from the Chi Sox at the deadline a couple of years ago, and somehow from that, he's gotten this reputation as a pitcher who was good once. Well folks, let me tell ya. it simply isn't true.

Career - 5.02 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .278 BAA, .803 OPSA (342/461).

Once again, those are his career numbers. What more need i say? But just to drive the point home, this is his best year...

2001: 4.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 281/342/444, 95/63 K/BB in 175 IP.

So apparently we'd rather give another shot to an injury prone pitcher wtih a career ERA over 5 then do something crazy, like say giving Aaron Heilman another shot (4.01 ERA 30/10 K/BB in 33.2 IP). He's given up a few too many hits, and the ERA is a tad high, but you gotta love the excellent K/BB ratio, something Heilman has shown at every step of the minors. If we're set on giving Heilman more AAA innings, how about Matt Ginter? He was aquired as another relief arm, but he's been starting in AAA - 5 starts, 27.2 IP, 1.30 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 24/3 K/BB). he's 26, he's got 387 minor league innings wtih a 2.74 ERA, and the last time he was a full time starter, in 2000, he posted a 2.26 ERA in 26 AA starts. So what's the problem here? Even if it's a hot streak, riding the hot streak of a 26 yr old to buy your real prospects some more time is a hell of a lot better then giving the ball to a 32 year old, soft tossing, proven failure. What possible reason could there ever be for giving the ball to a 32 yr old with a career ERA over 5. Usually i blame these moves on a futile attempt to compete now, instead of 2006, but i cant even attribute this move to that, because i think its almost certain that either Ginter or Heilman would outpitch Baldwin given the chance. I'm almost tempted to say that they're doing this looking towards the future, wanting more AAA service time for the kids, but that would go agaisnt everything we know of the Mets and the Wilpons. And it would be misguided anyway. Ginter is 26, has tons of minor league service time, and is dominant right now. Heilman's minor league experience is limited, but he earned his way to the majors once already, and with a 3-1 K/BB ratio arguably has done so again, despite the poor WHIP he's carrying. The Mets seem to have this fear ofa young pitcher coming in to the majors and struggling a bit, and i don't get it. Rookies are supposed to struggle at times. There's nothing wrong wtiha rookie pitcher struggling a bit, and being forced to adjust his pitching to the majors. Almost every player goes through it. But the Mets seem to have this drastic fear of it. Tyler Yates struggles, he gets sent down, Heilman struggles last year, he loses his spot in the rotation this year. Jae Seo's bad spring certainly had something to do with him losing his spot. It seems like the Mets will accept nothing but immediate success from the pitching prospects, and it's starting to scare me. Rich Harden earned his way to the majors last year. He came out strong, and tossed a coupe great starts. Then he proceeded to get hammered, and his 1.69 ERA on Aug 10 wound up at 4.46 to end the season, topping out at 4.80 along the way. But Oakland is a well run organization. They didnt panic and send him down. Harden is back in the rotation this year, and still struggling a bit, but Oakland will stick with it, and chances are they're going to be rewarded with an excellent pitcher. The Mets on the other hand, are never going to get help from a single young pitcher, if they won't let any of them pitch the first tiem they run into trouble.

2004-05-06T23:30:00.000-04:00

Has anyone else noticed that the Mets have a 4 game winning streak going. That's the longest in the National League. Let's all take a moment to stop and thank whoever made the deal with the Devil.

2004-05-06T23:23:00.000-04:00

The Mets managed to give Al Leither some more pitiful run support tonight, leaving him nothing to show for his 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 6 K, 0 BB masterpiece. The Senator now has a 1.53 ERA over 6 starts, and a 1-1 record to show for it. I don't know how Leiter himself feels about it, but as someone who calls him my favorite baseball player, i can honestly say that it is starting to piss me off. Leiter's obviously worked hard this year to come into the season in shape, and pitching well, and it's paid off big time in his performance. Tom Glavine has had a similarly excellent start, and has garnered all sorts of attention because he's gotten some run support, and built himselfa 4-1 record (though he could easily be 6-0). If Roger Clemens starts to slip, Glavine is looking at the serious possiblity of starting an All Star game if he can keep up his current performance. Letier on the other hand, is leading the league with a 1.53 ERA, and is barely a blip on the radar because we can't score more then 1 damn run when he takes the mound, and never get him the win. A little run support and Leiter would be vying with Clemens and Glavine as the early favorites to start the all star game. Ya, i know, and you know, most the people who spend there time reading and writing blogs know that W-L record is among the most meaningless ways of juding a pitcher. But the mainstream media and the fans love it, especialyl when it comes to voting for the All Star game and for the Cy Young. So it would be really nice if we could score a run here and there, and get the Senator some wins, and the recognition that should come with how superbly he's pitched so far.

At least the Mets managed to win the game tonight, off a walk off 11th innings home run by Mike Piazza. Thats two nights in a row for the big guy. Hopefully his bat is starting to get hot. We could certainly use it with Jason Phillips struggling, Floyd and Reyes still out of action, and Kaz Matsui falling off a cliff after starting hot. After tonight's 0-5 performance Matsui is batting .239/326/354 (680) with 31 K's in 112 AB's. And don't let that Isolated Discipline fool you, the early plate discipline Kaz showed has completely eroded, with 1 walk in the last 10 days. A hot Piazza could change everything. Players around him might start to see pitches to hit, and with Spencer and Garcia both performing well, as well as Cameron with an OPS nearing 900, we might actually score more then 2 runs in any given game, as hard as that is to imagine right now.

2004-05-04T19:08:00.000-04:00

Grant Roberts was sent down to AAA today. Apparnetly we really screwed him up in Spring Training, because Roberts has bene nothing but succesful in the past, and this season he just lookis worn, tired, and down in his velocity a little bit.

Roberts Major Leauge ERAs

2001: 3.81 in 26 IP
2002: 2.20 in 45 IP
2003: 3,79 in 19 IP
2004: 17.36 in 4.2 IP

Ya, it's only 4 2/3 innings, but ROberts has gotten hammered every time hes touched the ball since the 5th inning of the Expos game in spring training. He might have gotten worn out, maybe he injured himself and he's fighting pain. I dont know, but i'm willing to bet there's more to this then just bad pitching. There's no reason for a 26 year old with good stuff and a good track record to just suddenly fall apart, unless there is something else going on here.

What's worse then then Roberts complete and total collapse? Easy, the fact that we replaced him with 34 yr old Ricky Bottalico. No offense to Bottalico, whose pitched well in AAA (0.00 ERA in 7.1 IP with an 8/4 K/BB), but couldnt we ahve found someone a bit younger who deserves the job? How about 26 yr old Matt Ginter, he of the 0.86 ERA and 19/2 K/BB ratio in 21 IP. Or 28 year old Jason Roach, with the 3.00 ERA and 15/3 K/BB in 15 IP. This is the problem with the Mets folks. Guys like Ginter, Roach, Heath Bell, P.J. Bevis, and Pedro Feliciano are going to rot away in AAA for yet another year, while we waste roster spots on useless veterans like Battalico, and Mike Stanton. What possible reason is there for calling up the 34 year old Bottalico, instead of giving one of the 20 somethings a shot? Do we like wasting the prime years of our pitchers? Is it a hobby for this organization? Maybe there's an office pool on how long they can keep promoting over the hill relievers before one of the kids bitches to management about it, and which one it will be? I don't know, these are just theories, but they seem as good as any, because there's no logical reason for it, unless we're purposely trying to hinder our future. *Sigh* Can someone please tell me what the fuck is going on in the minds of Mets brass?

One other thing i wanted to mention. Anyone been perusing through the stats leaders recently? Like i need to tell you who this is..

463/704/1111 (1815) 15 xbh (10 HR), 6/44 K/BB ration in 55 AB

I've been waiting before i started raving about Bonds again, i mean, it was only April right? Well, now it's the first week of May, and Bonds Slug% of 1111 would be the sixth best OPS in all of baseball, not including his own. He's got nearly as many walks as at bats. His .463 avg is 7 points lower then Jason Phillips entire OPS. Bonds RC/27 is the absolutely ludicrous 32.56. If you add the RC/27 of the entire Mets starting lineup, it barely beats that. For the sake of this, i used Cliff Floyd as the left fielder, which added to the total, then i took out Todd Zeile and re added Ty Wigginton, which dragged it back down. And though there was no choice, since Jose Reyes hasn't even played, it should be remembered that this is with Ricky Gutierrez at second base. All that said, let's take a look at Bonds vs. the combined (not averaged) RC/27 of the entire Mets starting lineup.

Bonds: 32.56 RC/27
Mets: 33.71 RC/27

Ya that's right. Barry Bonds is on the verge of outproducing the combined efforts of our entire starting lineup. Right now, Barry Bonds RC/27 virtually equals the combined total of Mike Piazza, Ty Wigginton, Kaz Matsui, Ricky Gutierrez, Jason Phillips, Cliff Floyd, Karim Garcia, and Mike Cameron. That puts some real perspective both on how amazing Bonds is, and how incredibly bad we are.

2004-04-30T06:18:00.000-04:00

The Slow Downward Spiral

Dark star crashes
Pouring its light into ashes
Reason tatters
The forces tear loose from the axis
Searchlight casting
For faults in the clouds of delusion ("Dark Star" - Robert Hunter/Jerry Garcia)

I admit it, i was high in the clouds of delusion..a serious case of the Spring..whatever the hell Rob Neyer calls it... I had started to believe that this year might be different. Playoffs? No. But i was expecting respectable, dare i say it, even borderline good. And it's all coming crashing down. Even after taking two of three from the Dodgers, who have been playing good ball (13-8 1st in the NL West), i just dont see it. Ya, we won a series, but we're still 9-13, already 6 games back, and April isnt even over yet. As a team we are hitting 240/317/379 (696). What makes it really sad is that we are pitching well. Very well. Opponents are hitting 265/316//359 (676), we're fifth in the league in ERA, and have givn up the second least walks. We're tied for dead last in strikeouts, but other then that the pitching has been excellent. Braden Looper has been outstandng so far, yet to give up an earned run and sporting an 8/1 K/BB in over 10 innings. The elders statesmen, Tom Glavine and Al Leiter, who many thought would be the achilles heel of the team, have been by far our two best players so far, with almost identical 1.64 and 1.61 ERAs, and WHIPs hovering around 1 even (with Glavine actually slightly below it). Glavine's at least got something to show for it at 3-1, while Leiter has been the victim of pitiful run support, and is just 1-1. And that's basically been the problem, we can't hit a damn thing. Maybe in all the talk about speed,defense,and pitching, the entire organization forgot that it's necessary to score runs to win a basbeall game? I dunno..i'm not privy to the minds of Mets players and management..maybe someone out there that is can kindly remind them of that fact for all of us.

Enough complaining though, we all know the Mets suck right now, no need to go into long tirades on the level and ways of there sucking. In a desperate attempt for anything else to talk about, i'm going to switch topics. Let's play the name your favorite game. I encourage everyone out there to play along in the comments section, and other bloggers to do so on there sites. I'm sure we're all curious as to what goes on in the deeply disturbed minds that spend there days reading and writing blogs.

Favorite Sport: Hockey Yep, that's right. I've mentioned this before. My favorite sport is in fact not the one i devote so much time to writing about, it's hockey. Every time i try to pretend like it's baseball, a certain buddy of mine reminds me that i know damn well that it's hockey, and i never argue, because i know he's right. I love hockey more then i do baseball, the Islanders more then i do the Mets..and i can't deny it. Mets win the World Series, I'm running around screaming, delusionaly hapy...Isalnders win the Stanley cup....I'm in tears. I don't know how to put it any better then that.

Favorite Athlete-Current: Adrian Aucoin-Islanders Got him for a song, instantly became the best defenseman on a team loaded with talented defenseman, is among the very top of the league in ice time every year, always solid in his own end while also emerging as a threat for 40+ points, has developed into a legitimate Norris Trophy candidate, one of the hardest shots in the NHL (won the hard shot competition this year), captain of the power play, wears the A on his jersey, rivals captain Michael Peca as the heart and soul of the franchise, made his first All-Star appearance this year and is still the most under appreciated player in hockey. What's not to love?

Favorite Athlete-All time: Denis Potvin-Islanders Captain, and unquestioned leader of the Islander's dynasty teams. Father of the franchise, and one of the greatest defenseman ever to put on a pair of skates. His greatness can sometimes be overlooked between Bobby Orr and the Bourque/Coffey era. For a long time, Denis Potvin was the all time leading scorer among defenseman. I also wear his number in hockey, which doesnt hurt. How important was Denis Potvin to the Islanders, how big was his presence in his time? He hasn't played in well over a decade and Ranger fans still regularly use the chant "Potvin Sucks". I couldn't think of a greater honor then to know Ranger fans still despise him, 16 years after he last stepped on the ice.

Favorite Baseball Player-Current: Al Leiter If you didn't know that, your etiher new, or have a terrible memory, because i think i've made it abundantly clear. I don't really know why. i think i've got a thing for lefty pitchers. I just really like the Senator. How could you not love a guy who wears his emotions so openly on his sleeve out there on the mound? Leiter's heart is in every pitch he throws, and there's no doubt about it. He's a pretty damn good pitcher too.

Favorite Baseball Player-All time: Sandy Koufax: I dont really understand this one either. I've just always had a real affinity for him. Might just be the greatest pitcher ever. Certainly makes a case for most dominant at his peak, and also for the most devastating curveball, or simply most dominant pitch, with that knee buckling curve. If you've never seen it extensively, i highly recomend going to MLB.com and spending a few bucks to access there library of classic games, and watching Koufax spin a gem. It's truly a sight to behold. I love the quote from Hank Aaron, something along the lines of "Bob Gibson? Hit him pretty good. Don Drysdale? Hit him pretty good too. Juan Marichal? Always hit him well. Sandy Koufax? Noone could hit that man." Aaron went on to explain that, " I always felt like, when i went to the plate, i had an idea of what i wanted to do against every other pitcher. How i wanted to approach the at bat. With Sandy, there was nothing you could do. He could bring that fastball, or drop the curve from your head to your knees and there just wasn't anything you could do". I am paraphrasing out of memory, but that is very close to what he said, and i remember very clearly, the reporter going through a list of pitchers, the best of the eras Aaron played across, and Aaron felt like he was good agaisnt all of them, until they got to Koufax when his face, and his tone of voice changed as he said "No one could hit that man". This is coming from the all time home run king, the guy who passed Ruth. Now THAT is a compliment.

Bah, i'm growing tired. Going to go sleep some more. I'll be back with some more later...

2004-04-28T00:06:00.000-04:00

Mike Piazza just (literally, just now) hit his 351st home run as a catcher, tying Carlton Fisk for the all time record. 1 more behind the plate and Mike is the all time leader. So let's all take a moment to congratualte him, and then burn his catching equipment.

2004-04-26T07:43:00.000-04:00

For any of you that happen to care, i've cahnged my quote of the week again..it's really become the quote of the month at this point. I doubt any you really care, i just keep it up because i like it. It is my blog damnit...

This time we've got a little couplet from the Grateful Dead song Scarlet Begonias, words by Robert Hunter:

"Once in awhile you get shown the light,
In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

Discuss amongst yourselves....

2004-04-26T00:27:00.000-04:00

No posts this weekend, i've been sobbing quietly in a corner as the Mets continue in freefall. I don't even know where to start. 15/16 in runs scored 15/16 in AVG, OBP, SLG, and hits. Hey, we're tenth in walks. thats not terrible, its not exactly good, but it's the little rays of light you have to look for in these cloudy, dark skied days. At least we have a tiny bit of plate discipline. Suprisingly, most of it comes from Kaz Matsui, and his team leading 14 walks. The three worst offenders?

Jason Phillips at 130/254/204

Ricky Gutierrez hittng 143/222/184 (please, please, let Reyes get healthy soon),

TyWigginton at hitting 188/216/333. Hey, at least he's shown some pop, right? Think about that, at 188/216/333 Wigginton is pretty clearly only the third worst hitter amongst our regulars (counting Gutierrez as a regular for now). How scary is that?

What's really sad is that in the last six games we've given up a grand total of 16 runs (2.66/game) and we're 1-5 (pause while i vomit involuntarily). 25 runs in the first 3 games, remember how great the offense looked? Ya, 41 runs in the next 15 games (2.77 a game..and i'm running for the bathroom again to throw up) Right...now where was i...oh yeah, GOD $#@%*^& DAMNIT! CAN"T ANYONE HERE HIT THE BALL?! Sorry, but i think we all know it needed to be said. You should all try it, it will make you feel better. Stick your head out the window, or open the front door and just scream CAN"T ANYONE HERE HIT THE FUCKING BALL?! (though, if you don't live in New York, you might want to throw an adendum on there afterwards, letting your neighbors know what your talking about). I'm past the point of dealing with it. We were 5-4, looking halfway decent, and everyone was happy, everything was good. Swept by the Pirates(no, no..really, cmon..your joke right, the Pirates?!), and i dealt with it, i told myself "these things happen, forget it". Now? Now im pissed. A triple a lineup couldve gone 4-2 with the pitching we've had. Not the Mets though, we give up under 3 runs a game and lose 5 of 6. I'm fed up, and it's time to let the bitching flood gates open. Like Avkash said....Vent. Go ahead, do it. You know you want to. No excuses. No silver linings. No optimism. Just let whoever you think deserves it, have it. So open up at that window, and let your nieghbors know exactly what you think. I've done my venting, so now i'll return to sobbing quietly in the corner.

2004-04-22T07:19:00.000-04:00

Ya, i gotta do it. I love the Senator so much, and i feel so strongly that he's got some good baseball left in him, I'm officially changing my NL Cy Young prediction from the injured Mark Prior, to none other then Senator Al Leiter. Ya, that's right...you heard me.

2004-04-22T07:17:00.000-04:00

One more tidbit on Leiter.

From Avkash's article...

No matter how you look at it, Leiter is slowly losing any ability he has to stay in a game.

Ok, Avkash, i love ya man, you know i've got a ton of respect for your writing, but what games are you watching? 2.08 ERA over his last 16 starts! You find me another pitcher in baseball that can say that. I'm not sure there are any, and if there is, i suspect his name is Prior.

Just in case that isn't enough for you though, how about the K/9 back within a hair of 7 (6.95 to be exact). Or how's this? Over his last 16 starts, Leiter has pitched 101 innings (if your curious, that's about 6 1/3 innings per start), in that span he's given up 78 hits, or exactly the number of batters he's struck out. Batters hit .224 aganst him last year after his injury. This year they're hitting 177/271/194. Over three starts this year, batters have an IsoP of 17 off of the Senator. That's ridiculous! I don't know what more you could possibly want...

2004-04-21T05:28:00.000-04:00

A response to Avkash

God damn you Avkash. I really, really was going to get to sleep by 3ish tonight. Now here i am at 4 am first starting an article that's probably going to take me an hour. Anyway..

Let me start by saying that Avkash is one of my favorite baseball writers alive right now, professional, blogger, or otherwise, but there are some things we disagree on, and Tom Glavine and the Senator are two of those. We exchanged several e-mails at one point about Glavine, that i really meant to post here, but never got around to it. This time, i'm posting before i get lazy about it. And one more note, Al Leiter, or the Senator as he's referred to, is my favorite baseball player, and has been for 3 or 4 years, so forgive me if i get a little vehement here.

Let me start off with this one mildly important stat:

2001: 3.32 ERA (*lgERA = 4.10 - ERA for a league average pitcher in the combination of ballparks Leiter pitched in)
2002: 3.48 (*lgERA = 3.91)
2003: 3.99 (*lgERA - 4.24)

Let me also point out that Leiter has never had an adjusted ERA+ (ERA relative to the league average, and adjusted for the pitcher's home park) below 100 in his time with the Mets, meaning he has been a better then league average every season he's pitched for us.

So is Al Leiter in decline? Almost definately. He's 38, has lost some velocity, and has a downward trend in his numbers. There's no arguing that. But Leiter in decline is still a pretty damn good pitcher for now. Don't believe me? Check this out.

NL starters ERA, Post-All Star

1. Mark Prior 82.8 IP 1.52 ERA
2. Wilson Alvarez 71.1 IP 1.77 ERA
3. Al Leiter 83.2 IP 2.15 ERA

Can you say dominant?

Was it a short lived renaissance, or did Leiter, who came into the season clearly out of shape, work himself back into shape to return to his vintage form. Well, you tell me...

2004: 17.1 IP 0.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .177 BAA

Here comes that word again...dominant.

Not that i'm giving Leiter a pass for coming into 2003 out of shape, there's no excuse for that when you make as much money as he does, but it seems pretty clear that the future junior Senator from the great state of New York has some excellent basbeall left in him before he hits the political scene. And since when is one run in 17 1/3 innings "pretty mediocre results". And as for him not pitching 7 innings, it's true that Leiter didn't go 7 in two of his three starts, but in this case, i'm blaming Art Howe, since it seems fairly obvious it wasnt Leiter's pitching that made him leave early.

And what about that huge decline in 7 inning starts last year? Let's have a look

2003 - pre DL: 1/17 (6%)
2003 - post DL: 6/13 (47%)

Looks like the Senator was good for 7 innings in about half his starts, just like he had been in 2001 and 2002.

If you'd prefer, we can look at his IP/S after coming off the DL...

83 2/3 IP / 13 starts = 6.44 IP/S or almost exactly what he did in 2001, and better then 2002

I'm not going to bother with batters faced, since Avkash showed that that's been at basically the same level for three years now.

So except for the first half of 2003, during which Leiter was out of shape (which admittedly, is his fault), and abttling injuries, someone please show me the huge decline over the last three years?

Actually, can you show me a decline over the last four years, because just for the record, 1999 was Leiter's worst year as a Met. Is there a decline from 1998? Yes, a quite obvious one. But Leiter was a legitiamte Cy Young candidate in 1998. Noone is expecting that out of the 38 year old Senator. But dating back to last year, Leiter has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball over his last 16 starts, so don't be at all shocked if he posts an ERA this year worthy of the term "ace".

I have more to say on this, but it's now 5:30, and since i have a paper due Thursday, i'm now looking at like 4 hours sleep. Damn you Avkash...

2004-04-21T03:04:00.000-04:00

Almost forgot. New Mets blog out, Dave's Mostly Mets Blog. Links up to your right, go check it out.

2004-04-21T02:41:00.000-04:00

As my old pal Scooby Doo would say, ruh roh. The Mets have lost 4 out of 5, including getting swept in a 3 game set with the Pirates (the Pirates?! thats a joke, right?) to slip into 3rd place in the East 3.5 games behind the Phish, who just got swept by the Braves. The difference being that the Phish (and just for the record, i've been calling them that since before Gammons started doing it - see links to hippie music on the sidebar) are still in first place, and they got swept by the 12 time defending division champion Ya ya i know, they were in the NL West at first, and the Expos in '94, but still. We got swept by the Pirates (no seriously, that's a joke right?), and we're now 2 games under .500. Can't the Mets ever get on the same page? It's been a maddening inconsistency these last 2+ years. We can hit sometimes, we can pitch sometimes, we just can't ever seem to do both at the same time for an extended period. I know that we're battling injuries right now, and getting Floyd, and even more so Reyes back is going to help this team. But if you'd told me before the season that Kaz Matsui would be hitting 302/415/472, Mike Piazza would have 3 HR before the first weekend was out, Karim Garcia was working out nicely, and Mike Cameron was..well, Mike Cameron. And on the other side of the ball, Glavine and Leiter were a combined 3-0, and the higher ERA between them was a microscopic 0.90 ERA,, not to mention, Braden Looper had yet to give up an earned run in the closer's role. If you'd said all that to me two weeks ago, i'd have told you the Mets would probably be in first place, and certainly no worse then 10-4, or maybe 9-5 Even with Floyd and reyes hurt, i couldn't have possibly imagined any worse then 8-6. And yet here we are at 6-8. Why? At this point, i'm blaming the bullpen. 3 blown leads. 2 tie games lost in the 8th. Al Leiter's pitched 3 dominant games, giving up just one runs in 20 innings, and he's got 1 win to show for it because his team can't give him any run support, and we're 1-2 in those games because the bullpen lost two of the games late. If i were Senator Al and Tom Glavine, i'd be pretty pissed, because the old guys are getting the job done. They've pitched their asses off so far, and we're still sinking towards the bottom of the standing.

On a positive note, Jose Reyes is getting stronger, and should be returning to the lineup soon..we hope.

2004-04-20T05:03:00.000-04:00

Yay! new computer happiness. And just for the record, i actually wound up with a different system

Athlon64 3200+ / 800 FSB / 1 MB cache
512 MB PC 2700 (to be upgraded to 2GB PC 3200)
200 GB HD
ATI Radeon 9600 Pro (and seriously, again, i know some of you reading this site are gamers. get off the Nvidia's. the new ATI cards are superior)

Needless to say, i'm a happy guy right now. This machine kicks some serious ass. I've gone from struggling through Lineage II open beta with massive video lag issues to performance that borders on perfect. No, i take that back, in 3-4 hours of game time, i've yet to experience anything but exceptionally smooth play. It IS perfect. Graphics went from nice, to fucking incredible, pardon the language. And best of all, i can run 64 bit applications once they start being released. Actually Unreal Tournament released a 64 bit version, though its the only thing that i'm aware of that's done so.

Anyway, back to talking about the Mets tommorow...or later today actually, seeing as it's 5 AM. In the meantime, go take a peek at Oakland's team stats, and you'll notice that every Mets Bloggers cult favorite, the loveable Marco Scutaro is hitting .390 while playing full time. I'm so glad we kept Cedeno, Timo Perez, and others on the 40 man instead of Scutaro, a player who, you know, has this little thing that i like to refer to as "value".

2004-04-16T19:21:00.000-04:00

Massive computer issues. I've got anew system o nthe way, but it'll be a week or more before it gets here. Until then, i'm going to try and continue to post every day, but it might be difficult, with IE crashing on me every 5 minutes. Just for the record, once my new system arrives, i'll be running the following

Athlon XP 3200+ / 400 FSB
512 MB PC 2700 DDR RAM (soon to be upgraded to 1 GB)
80 GB Hard Drive
ATI Raedeon 9600 Pro (the new Raedeon's kick ass. i highly recommend making the switch from Nvidia)

I can't wait.

Oh yea. lets go islanders...again

2004-04-14T19:11:00.000-04:00

I've got three words for tonight... Let's Go Islanders.

2004-04-13T02:54:00.000-04:00

Piazza, Reyes, and Floyd missed the home opener...yada yada, you've read it. Is every Mets game this year going to be a slugfest? I think the over/under on the next game is 25 runs. The Mets won 10-6 today , without any home runs. The entire makeshift lineup was spraying hits all over the field, as we built up a 10-0 lead. No way the bullpen could blow that right? They certainly made it interesting. After Steve Traschel pitched six innings of 1 run ball, Grant Roberts proceeded to give up 4 runs, all earned in 1 innings, to bring it to 10-5 heading into the 9th. Roberts has looked really, really (really) bad since that 5th inning against the Expos in spring training. I'm wondering if maybe he wore himself out with the long outings early in the spring, because he's just getting hammered. Back to the game though. 10-5 in the 9th. Still no problem, right? Uh huh..well, Dan Wheeler came on, and after striking out the first batter, allowed two singled, dropped a ball to allow Marcus Giles to reach safely, and then another single to bring it to 10-6, with Andruw Jones coming to the plate as the tying run, and 1 out. Much to the relief of Mets fans everywhere, Braden Looper came on and got Jones to ground into a 6-4-3 double play to end it. Thank god. If we had blown the game after leading 10-0, combined with the Islanders loss on two bad goals early in the game, then i might have broken something. I like our pitching matchups for the rest of the series. Tyler Yates pitches tommorow against Jon Thomson. I've got this one penciled into my schedule as a must see, after Yates outstanding performance last week. Then Wednesday Senator Al goes up against sophmore Horacio Ramirez.

2004-04-12T19:15:00.000-04:00

Had some issues with the links. The new Mets blog "Mets Forever" really is to your right now, i swear.

2004-04-12T02:51:00.000-04:00

New Mets blog up called Mets Forever. I was just over there and there's soemg ood stuff up. Go check it out, link is to the right.

2004-04-12T02:49:00.000-04:00

The good news, Tom Glavine pitched a gem today. The bad, Cliff Floyd is headed to the DL with a hamstring injury. Floyd pulled up lame while running down the first base line, and had to be helped off the field by Art Howe and a coach. I don't want to talk about that today though. I've been trying to get my predictions up all week, and it just hasnt happened. I know it's kinda cheating once we're a week into the season, but just for the recod....

NL East
Marlins
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Expos

My better sense tells me there's no way the Braves drop all the way to 4th. Hell, part of me still thinks they're going to win the division. In the end though, I'll stick with habit and predict the Braves collapse. It has to happen eventually, doesn't it? However, i am not jumping on the Phillies bandwagon. Everyone's so quick to write off the Marlins as a fluke, just like the Angels two years ago. Not me. I think the Marlins will win the division this year, and be a serious contender in October. Why? One word; pitching. Josh Beckett will be a serious Cy Young candidate this year. And he might not even be the best pitcher on the team after the All Star break, if A.J. Burnett comes back full strength from Tommy John surgery. NL RoY Dontrelle Willis (even though Brandon Webb should have won), Brad Penny throws 98 with strong secondary stuff, Carl Pavano's stuff is so good he was once BA's No 1 prospect. The Marlins are just loaded with 20 something starters that can overpower hitters. And if you look past the loss of Lee and Pudge, you'll see that there's still enough offense with Pierre, Castillo, Lowell, Cabrera, and Conine. I think Hee Sop Choi will come through with a good year as well. The Phillies will win around 90 games, and be in the thick of the Wild Card race. I'm looking for 83-85 wins out of the Mets, a dramatic improvement, but not enough to make it to October.

NL Central
Cubs
Astros - Wild Card
Cardinals
Cincinatti
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh

Cubs are too good for the Astros, and the whole league, finishing with the best record in the NL. Best rotation in baseball 1-5, without a doubt. Patterson/Alou/Sos/Lee/Ramirez will score plenty of runs, especially since they could set some records for runs allowed. The Astros will edge out the Phils for the Wild Card behind Pettite and Clemens, and because they'll beat up on the weak bottom of the division. The Cards could lead the league in runs scored, but don't have anyone competent for the back of the rotation. The rest of the division is under .500 unless Griffey, Dunn, and Kearns all have big years for the Reds.

NL West
Giants
Padres
Dodgers
D-backs
Rockies

Why is everyone writing off the Giants? This team isn't a whole lot different from last year's team. Losing Jose Cruz hurts, but Aurillia hasnt hit in a couple years now, and Pierzynski is an upgrade at catcher over the agless Benito Santiago. And last year's teams won 100 games. I don't see them repeating that, but i'm looking for 90-95 wins and a division title. The Pads have a great lineup and some promising young pitching. They'll win 85 games and could go into 2005 as the division favorite. The Dodgers can't hit, but their pitchign keeps them above .500. The D-backs are awful beyond Johnson and Gonzalez. The Rockies are just plain awful, though Todd Helton is a monster, Coors Field or not.

AL East
Yankees
Red Sox - Wild Card
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays

Tough division, top to bottom. I think every team could play .500 ball. If the Devil Rays don't the only reason will be that they play in such a tough division. I'd love to pick the Red Sox at the top, i really would. But with Nomar, Nixon and Kim on the DL, and Bill Mueller almost certain to regress towards the mean, i just can't.Losing Pettite and Clemens hurts, and Kevin Brown is going to break down, but Javier Vazquez is the most overlooked pitcher in all of baseball, and Jose Contreras actually put up some good numbers last year once he settled down. And the offense is one for the ages. They went out and adressed there only whole, right field, by adding Gary Sheffield, whose coming off a year that would win MVP in most leagues/years. Then when a third base whole pops up, they go out and get A-Rod, just for kicks (albeit, creating a second base whole in the process). The Yankees are just too strong. Another division title, 105+ wins and the best record in baseball. Boston wins 95-100 games and the Wild Card behind Pedro and Schilling, the best 1-2 in baseball, and the depth of their starters, and their lineup. If Toronto were in the NL West or the AL Central, i think they're division champs, with a shot at 95+ wins. In this division, the'yre an 85-90 win, third place team. Baltimore and Tampa are both improved, but just can't climb out of the cellar, the top three are too strong.

AL Central
Twins
Royals
White Sox
Indians
Tigers

I was really tempted to pick the Royals here, just because i'd like to see them win, and especially with Minnesota rash of injuries this week, but Minnesota is just clearly the most talented team in this division. The Royals will score lots of runs with Berroa, Beltran, Juan Gone, Sweeney, and Matt Stairs, who just destroys right handed pitching. But their young pitching just isn't ready yet. Minnesota's not exactly loaded with pitching, but Johan Santana and Brad Radke is enough in this division. And their lineup, while it lacks the firepower of the Royals, is deep, and should be more then enough. The Chi Sox probably have the best lineup in the division, but i dont see Loaiza repeating last year's superb campaign, ans that leaves them with nothing beyond Buehrle. The Indians will be great...in 2006 or 2007. The Tigers can't possibly be as bad as they were last year, can they?

AL West
A's
Angels
Mariners
Rangers

The most contested division in baseball. I'm looking for all three of the top teams to win between 90-95 games. On paper i think the Angels bullpen and strong lineup makes them the favorite. I also think that Kelvim Escobar was a great pick up, and now that he's away from the turf of the Skydome he's gonna be an ace. I'm still taking the A's because of that big three of Hudson/Zito/Mulder, and to be perfectly honest, just because i like them. The Mariner's are old, but they remain a deep, and extraordinarily balanced team. Any of the three could win and it wouldn't surprise me. The Rangers have one of the best young infields anyone's ever seen, but they're clearly in the cellar here.

NL Cy Young - Mark Prior

Well, i was going to pick Prior without thinking about it, but now that he's going to miss all of April, it becomes a much tougher decision. I almost went with Josh Beckett, but i think Prior coems off the Dl to blow away the leage and take the Cy Young anyway.

Al Cy Young - Javier Vazquez

Can you say run support?

NL MVP - Barry Bonds

Among the experts, few are taking Bonds. I doubt anyone thinks he's going to fall off this year, it's just that they're trying to pick anyone other then Bonds, since he's so obvious. Most of them naturally turn to Pujols. Well, that's certianly possible, if only because i think the writers will be reulctant to give Bonds his 4th straight MVP. When it comes down to it though, is there any doubt Bonds is once again going to be the most dominant player in the game? Chalk it up, 4 straight, and 7 overall for Bonds, Barry Bonds.

AL MVP - Manny Ramirez

The Yankee vote gets split once again, there's noone on the Twins who will put up the numbers, Eric Chavez isn't quite ready for that monster season, and Nomar on the DL leaves Manny as the clear choice for the Sox, who could well win 100 games. He's just gotta stay in the lineup to play 150 + games and rack up those monster RBI numbers. If the Angels make the playoffs and Boston doesn't Vlad takes the award.

NL RoY - Kaz Matsui

He's not going to be the MVP caliber palyer he was in Japan, but Kaz should instantly be one of the best shortstops in the NL. That should easily be enough for the Rookie of the Year award

AL RoY - Bobby Crosby

Joe Mauer's got the best future of any rookie in baseball, but Crosby's farther along in his developement, and he already hits for power. He puts up the better numbers this year to bring home the Trophy

NLCS

Cubs over Marlins: Cubs are the class of the NL, Pitching is just too good for the rest of the league.

ALCS

Red Sox over Yankees: Over 162 games i like the Yankees. Over 7, i like Pedro and Schilling.

World Series

Cubs over Boston: The pitching duels will be classic in this one. The Cubbies take it because Zambrano and Maddux dominate, Lowe and Wakefield do not once we get past each team's big two.

2004-04-10T07:44:00.000-04:00

I like ESPN's baseball chats. I rarely, if ever stop in when they are actually happening, but i always read them afterwards. Except for the usually brief length, i enjoy most of them quite a bit. As most of those in the blogger univerese are aware, Joe Morgan has taken a lot of heat from bloggers and other "enlightened" baseball thinkers for some truly idotic comments he's made. Most notably his repeated comments on how Billy Beane wrote "Moneyball", but myself and others have also called him out for other comments, like when he proclaimed that MLB saved the Expos by taking over ownership of them, when of course MLB created the whole damn situation by engineering the whole Boston/Florida/Montreal swap meet. I suppose i always knew that when it comes down to it, Joe Morgan knows a lot about baseball. I mean he is a Hall of Famer after all. I just had begun to doubt that he'd ever actually say something intelligent in one of these chats. So when i read this, i damn near died of shock.

Q: Do the Giants have enough protection behind Barry Bonds" (Spelling and grammar corrected, horrible nickname for Bonds removed)

Joe Morgan: First of all, there is no such thing as protection for Barry Bonds. It wouldn't matter who is hitting there, they are not going to pitch to Barry. It doesn't matter who's behind him. The only guy that could protect Barry would be Barry.

Yes, that's actually Joe Morgan writing that, one of the more intelligent things i've ever seen in one of these chats. I've been trying to make that exact point to my friend the Giants fan for months now. He complains that the Giants have no protection for Bonds, and wishes they'd get another bat to force people to pitch to him. I respond by saying almost exactly what Joe Morgan said, though i usually phrase it something like: "Listen man, unless your going to ressurect someone named Ruth, or Williams, there is no protection for Bonds. You could put Manny, Todd Helton, and Pujols in the three spots behind him, and they're still gonna walk him if first is open." Joe Morgan and I, making the exact same point. Scary

2004-04-09T21:43:00.000-04:00

And the combination of Mike Stanton and Braden Looper has cost Tyler Yates his first major league win. CAN WE GET A FUCKING BULLPEN?! 3rd straight blwon game by the relievers.

2004-04-09T21:08:00.000-04:00

Yates final line: 84 pitches / 58 strikes. 5 hits, 0 runs in 6 innings, 4 K / 0 BB. Wonderful debut for the rookie, now let's see if the bullpen can hold it. Mike Stanton is pitching right now. I'm scared.

2004-04-09T20:50:00.000-04:00

Bottom of the 6th, 4 hits allowed, no runs, three K's, no walks. I'm loving Tyler Yates so far. He's throwing hard, isnt afraid to challenge hitters, and is throwing strikes. As of this writing, 49 of 69 pitches have been for strikes. With his stuff, that's all Yates needs to do to succeed. Keep hitting those spots, and he'll have a real nice season.

2004-04-09T20:49:00.000-04:00

After missing his start last night, Scott Erickson is headed to the DL. And with that goes any chance we had of trading him. Can we please just release him now? Jae Seo was called up to take his spot on the team, and hopefully in the rotation. And if Seo continues his spring struggles, Aaron Heilman looked real good tonight in AAA.

2004-04-09T03:50:00.000-04:00

Once again the offense scored plenty of runs, and once again the Mets bullpen blew the game. 25 runs, and we win 1 out of 3 games. Pathetic. Dan Wheeler was good through three innings, and then it all fell apart with the Braves scoring in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th. Old Man Franco was most to blame, getting hammered for four runs in just 2/3 of an inning.

Nice to see how well that Scott Erickson thing is working out too. He couldn't even stay healthy enough to make his first start, getting scratched during the warmups. If he misses his next turn in the rotation, will this horrible experiment finally end? It may almost be better that Erickson couldnt make the start, because i'm not convinced that the Mets would trade him if he started the season off well. They might actually let him take a spot in the rotation all year, and then my head would explode. Noone wants that, right? No, it's better if either Seo or Heilman get another shot in the show, and what little is left of my sanity after two summers on hippie tour remains intact.

You really gotta like how the offense looks though. With Floyd, Piazza, Cameron, and Phillips all off to good starts, i'm envisioning a pretty good 3-4-5-6. If Matsui and Reyes can get on base and put some pressure on defenses, we could actually be a somewhat formidable line up. Ty Wigginton looks like our worst hitter, and that ain't so bad. We still won't have enough pitching to compete, but it should at least make games more fun to watch, and that's never a bad thing.

2004-04-07T23:43:00.000-04:00

I started to keep a log of this game also, but after the third it wasnt so much of a commentary as an ongoing string of curses, so i scratched that. As i write this it's now 16-7 in the 8th, and i'm already getting irritated at the inevitable "we battled" from Art Howe. And everything looked so good when we were up 6-0. Starting the season with two decisive victories over the Braves, what could have been better? All well. At least we can take a few good things out of the first two games. Tom Glavine looked good. The offense looks great. Cliff Floyd got on track with two hits tonight. Piazza went 5-5 tonight with two home runs, a double, and 4 RBI. He just looks dialed in at the plate. Anything in the strike zone he crushes. And that second homer tonight? Even Mike was impressed. If you catch the replay, check out Piazza's expression when he glances up to look. All of a sudden i'm wondering if we could see the Piazza that competes for batting titles again. Phillips is 3-7 with two doubles three walks. Matsui is 4-7 with a HR, two doubles, and 3 walks. If the first two games are any indication, we could score some runs this year. Now if we could just keep from giving up 18 runs.

The play by play guy on MSG (as i've mentioned before, it's been 7-8 years since i've lived in the Metro area, so forgive me for not knowing his name) said something tonight to the effect of; "The Mets need to come up with a stopper. there are a couple of different types of stoppers, generally people think of the closer in the 9th, but it's also important to have a guy who can come in earlier and put a stop to the big inning, or a rally. There are other times during the game when you need a shut down reliever." Now that's a long way from recognizing how over valued the closer's role is, or that perhaps you use your most dominant reliever whenever it's really necessary, and not just for the 9th. But hey, it's a completely mainstream anouncer. At least he's recognizing that there are other points in a game where a dominant reliever is just as important as in the 9th. If everyone starts thinking that way, it's a start.

And one final note: There's a new book coming out about the '86 Mets, "The Bad Guys Won" by former SI baseball writer and current Newsday reporter Jeff Pearlman. As he tells us on his website, Jeff grew up with that team, and credits them as the reason he loves baseball. Should be a good read. Go check it out, link to the right.

2004-04-06T22:30:00.000-04:00

Keeping a running journal of the game:

1st inning

1-0 Mets before i eve had time to settle into my chair. Kaz Matsui's home run was gorgeous. He sent the first pitch of the season 429 feet on a sweet, smooth swing that looked completely effortless. Can't judge anything from 1 swing of the bat, but boy was that pretty.

Gutierrez gets a hit up the middle, but then Floyd, Piazza, and Cameron all fly out. Floyd missed hitting the second home run of the innings by less then a foot.

Here comes Glavine, he goes 3-0 on Furcal before throwing a strike and giving up a hit to center. Here comes Giles..the only Brave i don't hate, why, i 'm not really sure. Well, Glavine's looking great, Giles just took him deep on then first pitch. 2-1 Braves.

Glavine walks Larry on 4 pitches, this is not looking pretty.

Strike 1 to Andruw, 89 MPH and probably an inch off the plate away. Let's all take a moment to pray he gets that pitch all season. Jones hits into a double play. (1-6-3). We needed that. J.D. Drew strikes out swinging through a changeup to end the inning.

2nd inning

Jason Phillips is hitting 6th, which i've assumed all along, but I still had some fears the Mets wouldnt give him enough credit for last year, and drop him down in the order. Good to officially see him in that 6 spot. Phillips starts the year off well on a double to the gap. For a moment i thought Andruw Jones was going to get to it and rob him of the hit. Karim Garcia grounds out to Marcus Giles at second. Here comes Wigginton. I'm expecting some improvement from him this year. Ty looks a little off, behind three straight 92 MPH fastballs from Ortiz. Glavine comes to the plate with 2 outs and a man on third. Any chance he helps his cause? He's been a pretty decent hitting pitcher over his career, and is an exceptional athlete. Glavine was drafted by the L.A. Kings to play hockey before choosing baseball. And Glavine does help his cause with a sharp grounder down the line. DeRosa handled the ball, but rushed the throw to try and get glavine and threw it away. Tie game 2-2. Matsui with a sharp double! I love this man! Mets up 3-2. Both hits came on fastballs, let's see if they come at him with some breaking stuff next time.

Tom Glavine looked good this inning, Three straight outs living on the outside corner. Looks like he's started to settle down and hit his spot. He's still missing outside with the changeup though. Gutierrez made a nice play at second

3rd inning

Floyd leads off, and swings at balls 4 and 5, tapping the latter back to the mound for an out. Here comes Piazza, who nearly got a hold of one in the 1st, but just didnt get it off the right part of the bat. GONE! He certainly hit that one off the sweet spot. Ortiz left one out over the plate and Mike just crushed it. Mike Cameron with a nice hit through the 3rd base hole. Jason Phillips steps up, he's looking real comfortable up there and takes the free pass as Ortiz struggles with his command. Karim Garcia with a little liner that probably should have been snagged by Furcal. It's gonna go down as an error. Bases loaded, one out. As Vinny from YMtR just said to me, c'mon wigg, no double play! 3-1, Ortiz might make this really easy on Wigginton. Shit. Ty just swing at ball 4, i hope that doesnt come back to haunt us. And it won't because Ortiz just walked Wigginton on a ball five feet outside. Think he lost control of a slider. That's gonna do it for Ortiz. Cox is calling for recent aquisition Juan Cruz. Glavine hits a nice little shot to short, but Furcal goes up and snags it. Nearly a double play at second. Here comes Matsui.. Cruz is gonna give him those fastballs he's hammered twice now. Let's see what he can do with them. Well, no connection on those fastballs, but Matsui had a nice at bat, fouling off a couple of tough pitches to draw a walk, and another RBI. 6-2 Mets. I really love this guy! Gutierrez grounds out to first. Almost a hit, but a nice play by Julio Franco before the toss to Cruz to end the inning.

Glavine's got a 4 run lead to work with here, and he's starting to actually look sharp with that infamous low and away pitch that is not a strike. He gets Cruz and Furcal, making several good pitches in a row. He's not getting the call all the time, but at least he's making the pitches he wants to make. We need Bobby V here, fighting for his pitcher's calls and Glavine would still get that pitch, the way Cox helped him and Maddux get it for years. Glavine looks sharp though. He gave up a hit to Giles, and Chipper hit the ball hard (but right at Matsui) to end the inning, but other then that, real nice work.

4th inning

Floyd leads off, the only Met not to reach base tonight..and that continues as he grounds out to second. Piazza strikes out looking at a nasty fastball on the outside corner from Cruz. Cameron stays patient on Cruz, and draws a walk, keeping the inning alive. And Jason Phillips makes them pay! another double, this one off the wall. Cameron got a huge jump off of first and comes all the way around to score. 7-2 Mets, and i'm loving it. Karim Garcia grounds out to end the inning, but Glavine's now got a 5 run lead and pitching well. Looking like a great opening day.

Glavine is pitching well indeed. The Braves went down 1-2-3 in the fourth, and without much of a fight. As Vinny said to me jsut now "He's working the outside corner to perfection now. This is vintage Glavine."

5th inning

Um.. i spent most of the top of the fifth discussing whether or not Glavine is done with Vinny. For the record, we both agree that he is not, and could enjoy a nice little comeback this season.

Glavine continues cruising, making easy work of the Braves in the fifth.

6th inning

My dog decided it was time for a walk and i missed the Mets at bats. Glavine ran into a bit of trouble in the 6th, with Giles almost going deep, a hit by Larry, and a walk to Andruw. Peterson made a call to the pen to get Weathers up, but Glavine gets Drew ona deep fly to end the inning, keeping it 7-2 Mets.

7th inning

Phillips leads off with another walk against new Braves pitcher Antonio Alfonseca, who looks like he's about 300 lbs. He's throwing 96 with, but with no control. Phillips has now been on base all 4 times tonight. Great start for him, as so far it looks like last year was certainly no fluke. You've gotta love his patience at the plate. Karim Garcia hits a 2-2 pitch up the middle. 1st and 2nd, no one out. Wigginton breaks his bat for an out, but does advance the runner. Wigginton and Floyd are the only Mets who havent looked good tonight. Eric Valent comes up to pinch hit for Glavine, whose done for the night. Real solid outing for Tom, that's exactly what he needed to get the season started the right way. He looked great after the 1st. Valent goes down 1-2 but shows some patience, fighting back to 3-2. He fouls off the first 3-2 pitch before grounding out to first on another broken bat. Phillips is too slow to try for the run, especially up 7-2. The Braves are intentionally walking Matsui. I love it! Can't really blame them though. A home run, two doubles and a walk, he's on fire today. Gutierrez has been swinging the bat well tonight, let's see what he can do here. Alfonseca's now thrown 27 pitches, and 17 have been balls. 3-2, 2 outs, bases loaded. Gutierrez strikes out on a fastball right down the middle. Didn't even get a full swing off. All well. We're still up by 5.

Good old reliable David Weathers takes over for Glavine, and starts off by striking out 97 year old Julio Franco. And down goes Estrada on a little blooper. Matsui ranged into shallow center to make the catch. Man is he looking great so far. Weathers sends down DeRosa with another K, finishing off an easy eight.

8th inning
Will Cunnane comes on for the Braves in the eighth. Floyd leads off and swings through a breaking ball. Nice cut though. He fouls off the next pitch, and then swings at a ball for strike three..another K for Floyd. He walks off looking disugsted with his performance. It has been pretty ugly, but everyone around him in the order has picked him up. Floyd had looked really bad, but i'm sure he'll be raking soon enough. Piazza pops up. He hasnt looked good since that HR, but hey..you hit a home run, you get a free pass the rest of the night. Cameron flies out to center for the final out.

I was expecting old man Franco for the 8th, but they're sticking with Weathers after that great seventh. Two easy outs, and then a nice sliding catch for Karim Garcia, his second of the game, to end the inning.

9th innings

The Mets go 1-2-3 again. Good outing for Cunnane, six straight batters retired.

Loopers pitching the ninth. Vinny's got his fingers crossed, but i happen to think Looper will be ok in the closer's role. As Vinny points out, he's getting his first test right here against the heart of the order. Chipper gets a hit in the hole between 1st and 2nd. Reyes wouldve made the play. Beautiful. Jones grounded into a 1-6-3 double play, the second of the game. Drew reaches ona broken bat single. Gutierrez made the stop but couldnt get him in time. Another broken bat, this time Gutierrez scoops it up, and steps on second to end the game.

Mets win 7-2. What a beautiful opening night. Kaz Matsui is our player of the game, without a doubt. He was 3-3 with two doubles, a home run, three RBI and two walks. Honorable mention to Jason Phillips, with two doubles and two walks, and Tom Glavine, who pitched 6 strong innings. Couldn't have asked for anything more. Best opening day in years

2004-04-06T19:37:00.000-04:00

The Mets season is officially under way, and Kaz Matsui just took the first pitch of it deep to straight away center. I'm on AIM under the name Raeyn Taurelinde. Come talk some baseball if your around.

2004-04-06T03:42:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the lack of an update today. Passover Seder. Being past the age of reason though (or at least past the age of living with the parents who force you to attend such things) i will not be partaking in the passover tradition tommorow night, choosing to watch the Mets opener instead. What can i say. You have to have your priorities. I'll be on AIM during the game, for anyone that's watching the game and wants to talk some baseball. Assuming anyone actually takes me up on that, i'll set up a chat room for everyone.

2004-04-05T01:22:00.000-04:00

My take on this whole pitching thing:

I'm surprised that Seo got sent down, bad spring or not. Even after the reports taht his spot wasnt so guarenteed anymore, i never thought he'd actually lose it. You'd think that what he did last year would be enough to give him a spot in the rotation no matter what, just like Art Howe said. However, before i go off on a rant about how it's spring training, and he shouldnt lose his job over it, i get the sense that this had less to do with his spring training numbers, and a lot more to do with the rumored conflict with Rick Peterson. It's just a gut feeling, but i think this was Peterson's call. And if you believe that Peterson decided that Seo should be sent down, i think we can all agree there's no way that the pitching guru made that decision based on his spring training ERA. I think it's more likely that Seo really is showing some resistance to Peterson's new program. And if that's the case, i think the decision is justified. What it all boils down to though is that i believe that this was Rick Peterson's decision, and for now, i've gotta put my faith in the guru, and trust that he knows what he's doing. Hopefully Seo comes around, and is back in the rotation soon.

Along the same lines, i think that Yates being given the no 4 spot has less to do with his spring training numbers then how well he's taken to Peterson's program. By all accounts, Yates has really thrived under Peterson's new techniques. That little story about the side session which i've mentioned twice now really says it all. If Yates really threw a side session with his eyes closed, and his mechanics and visualization were so on cue that he never missed his target, he probably won himself a spot in the rotation right then. AS you all know, i favored giving Grant Roberts the shot, but i dont have any problem with the hard throwing Yates, any of the youngsters would have been ok in my view. And Yates has obviously made a huge impression on Mets brass this month.

I'ma bit more pessimistic on Scott Erickson. I hope this is just an extended audition for a trade, that the Mets want to give Erickson a shot to pitch a couple of good games, in order to raise his trade value(read: to give him any value at all). I only pray we're not seriously considering letting him pitch for us all year, while multiple young starters (or potential starters), that might actually have a future with the team remain in the bullpen or AAA. If nothing else, you have to expect either Seo or Heilman to earn their way back to the majors at some point this year. Do we really need a 36 year old pitcher who has never really been anything more then an innings eater blocking their path. If we want to let him make a few starts as an audition, but he needs to be traded the second a team offers even a marginal prospect.

2004-04-04T06:33:00.000-04:00

Shots are on me!!

Cedeno was traded to the cardinals(Pause while i dance around the room in joy). In return we recieved (as if anyone cares) backups Chris Widger and Wilson Delgado. Neither of them will probably ever play a day for the Mets, but who cares? I think i speak for everyone when i say that the BP pitcher and a couple of used bats would have been more then enough for Cedeno.

2004-04-04T05:23:00.000-04:00

Say it ain't Seo

Jae Weong Seo was one of the few bright spots on the 2003 Mets. Despite some mid season struggles, the young right hander put together what everyone considered a breakthrough campaign. When spring training began Art Howe said that Jae Weong Seo was guarenteed the fourth spot in the rotation, no matter how he performed in camp. How quickly things can change. After a rocky spring, and rumored conflict with new pitching guru Rick Peterson over the use of his breaking ball, Seo is headed back to AAA.

The final two spots in the rotation will be manned by Tyler Yates and Scott Erickson, the two winners of what was supposed to be a competition for one job. The 26 year old Yates has has impressed everyone with a great spring, posting a 0.64 in 14 Grapefruit League innings. What really won him the job though, is how well the young fireballer has taken to the Peterson's new pitching program. Peterson had Yates throw a side session with his eyes closed last week. How well has Yates mastered his mechanics and visualization? He never missed the catcher's target. You've gotta love that. I know Rick Peterson did.

As for Scott Erickson, there are already rumors that he is on the trade block. As many as five teams reportedly have interest. Erickson has been throwing well all spring, and if he stays healthy should be an effective fifth starter wherever he lands. It would be a minor coup for the Mets if we can get even a marginal prospect for him, as Erickson was easily available to any team that wanted to give him an invitation to camp. We gave him the chance, it's worked out well and now we could see some reward for it.

Edit: My commentary on the pitching situation is coming soon. I apologize for the lack of posts the last few days, i've been having issues with my computer that i am trying to resolve. I've finally gotten it at least reasonably healthy, and can get back to posting, so expect more of my take on all this tommorow.

2004-04-02T00:38:00.000-05:00

Just shoot me. Jose Reyes is headed to the DL. In his first real swing since injuring his hamstring 17 days ago, Reyes felt a sharp pain in the injured hamstring, and immediately ended his workout. Nothing's been made official yet, but Reyes is almost certainly headed to the DL, and is doubtful at best for the Mets home opener on April 12th.

I have officially crossed the line from concerned to #$%^ing terrified about the phenom's right leg. Last winter, twice last season, now twice again this offseason. Five incidents in 13-14 months. It's like a horror movie, when all the lights in the house go out. Never a good sign.

2004-03-30T18:17:00.000-05:00

Since i'm sure you were all dieing to know if i stayed up to watch baseball last night. I made it through the first four innings. Just some random observations from the game:

Can someone tell me why the Tokyo Dome says "Tokyo Dome" in giant lit-up letters on the outside? If you looked closely you could see the smaller signs up by the box office and around the street were all in Japanese. Which you'd expect from a stadium in Japan. The giant 30 ft tall name of the stadium though? That's in english. Huh?

Not that i'm judging here, but Jason Giambi looks about 90 lbs lighter. Of course, he proceeded to hit a home run in 1st at bat anyway.

Was it just me, or did that home run look like a fly-out in almost every major league stadium?

A-Rod looked great at third. He made a few nice plays, and on Toby Hall's liner in the 5th to put the Devil Rays up 5-3, he very nearly had a legitimate web gem. His transition to the new position might go better then i expected. He's no Eric Chavez, but i could see A-Rod being one of the better defensive third basemen in the AL based on this morning, and that's good news for the Yankees. Maybe it'll help compensate for still having Jeter at short.

If the Devil Rays had any shot of finishing in the top half of their division, Aubrey Huff would be my dark horse for AL MVP. He's one of the more unrecognized superstar hitters in the game, mostly because he does it for Tampa. Seeing how i live in Tampa, i see a whole lot of Huff, and i can tell you that there's no doubt in my mind he's one of the elite left handed hitters in the league. I'm predicting .320 with 40 HR and 120 RBI for him this year. And based on the way he was swinging the bat last night, it wouldnt surprise me if he goes on a tear to open the season and raises his profile in a hurry.

Is it possible the Devil Rays could be somewhat respectable this season? The line up isnt terrifying or anything, but it's a pretty decent top 5 if Julio Lugo can repeat or improve upon last season. If they manage to get some decent pitching, i could see them being close to .500

2004-03-30T04:40:00.000-05:00

I really wasnt planning on watching the game at this obscene hour. I swear. I don't even like the Yankees. I live in Tampa and could care less about the Devil Rays. Then i found myself awake (sort of), i go to get a drink of water, and glance at the clock as i stumble back to bed. 4:27 AM. It is the first game of the season after all. Decisions, decisions...

2004-03-28T16:02:00.000-05:00

God Damnit! Well, i'm off to St Lucie with my posters of Joe McEwing and Danny Garcia. If you didn't click the link, yes, that's right, the Mets traded today for back up infielder Rickky Gutierrez. Gutierrez of course, being a back up middle infielder and all, can't hit for his life. Though he has demonstrated the ability to take a walk, and his career .340 OBP probably makes him the best player on our bench. Actually i take that back, Todd "never swing at the first pitch" Zeile's plate discipline makes him the most valuable player on our bench. In any case, there's little doubt that Gutierrez is a better player then Joe McEwing, and even though he's no whiz with the glove, he should be better then McEwing at second and short, since he actually plays those positions. As opposed to Joe, who just pretends he can. Of course, neither of them figure to be better then Garcia.

My question here is what didn't the Mets see when they gave McEwing that two year contract in the offseason? What the hell is his role on this team if not back up infielder? He can play catcher, but we've already got 3 of them, and i suspect Todd Zeile could still crouch for a few innings in an emergency. He can play the corner outfield spots, but we still can't dump Cedeno on anybody. He can play first or third, but we already dumped a perfectly good lefty in order to make room for Todd Zeile. So what is McEwing role on the team now, to lead the clubhouse cheers? Personal asst to Mr. Met?

What makes it even worse is that he's not even as good as the guy we just sent out of town, Timo Perez. Timo has no patience, no power, and no baserunning sense, but he hit righties for a respectable average, has some speed, and can handle all three outfield positions adequately. Gutierrez has...well, he has some patience, that's about it. Maybe i'm harping on insignifigant moves that we shouldn't be concerned about, but this whole thing just strikes me as dumb. First, we get yet another right handed reliever for Timo, when anything else would have been more helpful, even if it was just a marginal outfield prospect. Then, we go out and use his roster spot on yet another guy who doesn't fill a need, and means we're essentially paying Joe McEwing $1m to back up the back ups.

None of this, of course, figures to have any effect on how the Mets will do this season, so it's not worth getting worked up over. But these little moves are indicative of the things that have plagued the Mets the last few years. Poor management of resources and roster spots. I loved the Cameron signing, and getting Peterson was a coup, but c'mon, a two year contract at a million per for Joe McEwing, who now has no real role on the team? Dumping Jamie Cerda to make a spot for Todd Zeile. Zeile, Timo Perez, and others on the 40 man over Lenny DiNardo and David Mattox, who were lost in the Rule V draft. Giving Braden Looper over $3.5m a year when we've got half a dozen guys who could do the job for 300k. Moving Reyes from short, even after it seemed clear that we were the main suitors for Matsui, obviously had the best offer on the table, and because of that probably could have gotten him to agree to play second. Inspite of the larger moves, which inspire hope for the future, these little moves that the Mets have managed so poorly suggest that we've still got a long way to go till we can call ourselves a well run organization.

Back to the subject of Braden Looper for a moment. What were we thinking commiting $7m to Braden Looper? I realize he's got some upside under Peterson, but so do a lot of other guys we already have in the system. Up to this point Looper has looked every bit the dime a dozen right handed reliever we already have so many of. If we were so intent on a) bringing John Franco back and b) having a defined closer the entire season, i'd jsut as soon let the old man and his astounding 92% career SV% have another crack at it. But more to the point, i would have put David Weathers in the role till July, let him rack up 20 cheap saves, and then peddled him to a contender for a couple of prospects. Does anyone have any doubts that Weathers could quite easily step into the role and be an effective closer? Every year there are 2 or 3 teams willing to part with a decent package of prospects to get some back end bullpen help for a pennant race. If for whatever reason we don't want to send Weathers out of town, we could have done it with any of the young major league ready arms that figure to be rotting away in AAA this season. I don't understand why more teams don't exploit this. Like i said, every year there are 2 or 3 teams in the playoff hunt that are willing to part with a decent prospect or two to get some late inning relief help. Any team can stick a competent reliever into the closer spot, let him rack up some cheap saves at a good conversion rate and then deal him off for something more valuable. Are you going to get as much for them as a guy whose been doing it a few years, like Ugueth Urbina last year? No, but there's very little dobut you could get something a good deal more valuable then a right handed reliever, the most easily replaceable things in baseball, aside from bench players.

2004-03-27T19:40:00.000-05:00

Well, Scott and Vinny did it, and Jeremy Heit did it, so i'm going to follow suit and post my AIM name, for anyone with comments, questions, or who just wants to talk baseball. I love talking baseball, and i don't have enough people to do it with, so don't be shy. My AIM name is Raeyn Taurelinde. Note the space, and before anyone asks why such an odd name, it's my preferred name for a ranger, my preferred class in the roleplaying games i enjoy, online and otherwise. Raeyn, i just like. Taurelinde is a combination of words from two of the elven languages created by Tolkien, and it translates to "forest song". I can hear the computer geek comments flying already.

2004-03-27T19:33:00.000-05:00

The Mets traded everyone's favorite 4th outfielder Timor Perez, to the White Sox for yet another major league ready right handed reliever, Matt Ginter. It's not like i'm broken up about seeing Timo go, but couldnt we have gotten anything other then another relief candidate? Taken a flier on some starter in the low minors with a good arm, or a marginal outfield prospect. Something? I remarked off hand to Vinny over at YMtR, that we now have a good 12-15 major league ready, right handed relief options. I started wondering if it's actually that high, so i decided to go and have a look and tally them up.

(In no particular order)
David Weathers
Scott Strickland
Braden Looper
Matt Ginter
Dan Wheeler
Jason Anderson
Grant Roberts
Orber Moreno
P.J. Bevis
Heath Bell
Tyler Yates
Jeremy Griffiths

That's twelve. If you put Roberts into the rotation, and assume Yates and Griffiths will be alowed to continue to work on being starters at AAA, that knocks it down to nine. There are six bullpen spots, maybe seven. Two of them will be occupied by John Franco and another lefty(almost certainly Pedro Feliciano). That leaves us 4-5 spots for righties. Braden Looper, and David Weathers are two of those, and Scott Strickland is number 3 once he's ready to go. That leaves six guys fighting for one, or possibly two spots in the bullpen. Depth is never a bad thing, but we are already plenty deep in relief arms.

Oh, and one more thing. If this move was made to free a spot on the roster for a back up middle infielder/utility guy, then I'm going to personally drive to St Lucie and give Jim Duquette signed posters of Joe McEwing and Danny Garcia. I live in Tampa, so it's only an hour and a half for me. I'll do it, I swear.

2004-03-26T21:30:00.000-05:00

Faster then you can say "Rios"

From the Toronto Star:

Reports the Dodgers and Mets have been sniffing around, preparing offers for Jayson Werth and/or Alex Rios, seem premature although either Jay could be available for the right offer...... As for the mega-talented Rios, 23, the trade offer would have to be a top-drawer prospect in order to tempt Ricciardi. Eventually Rios will likely be traded. His skills are too similar to Vernon Wells' in terms of not seeing pitches and drawing walks. One such early-contact hitter is enough under the current offensive philosophy.

If we call the Jays to ask about Alexis Rios, and the names Scott Kazmir and David Wright don't come up, my response would be "How fast can you get him on a plane". J.P. Ricciardi supposedly likes Heilman, so how about Heilman and another player. If he wants a bat, there are a couple of options. If you believe the article, the reason that Rios is available would seem to rule out Victor Diaz, since he's another average/power guy who doesn't take walks. Aaron Baldiris has the plate discipline and on base skills that Toronto covets. Justin Huber is a possibility. If Ricciardi is looking to stockpile arms, we can offer him Heilman and Matt Peterson. Anything short of Kazmir and Wright. Rios would provide a huge boost to the system. He tore up the Eastern and Puerto Rican Leagues this year, and is rated the 6th best prospect in baseball by BA. He'd immediately become our best option in right field, though it's more likely he'd be send to AAA at least initially. Either way, the future Mets of Reyes/Rios/Wright/Kazmir sounds damn good to me.

2004-03-26T17:09:00.000-05:00

Ok, i'm a little late on this one, but why are the Mets considering guys like Deivi Cruz and Erick Almonte for the back up middle infielder spot. Maybe i'm missing something here, but if Joe McEwing isn't the backup middle infielder, what is he? The team mascot? If you give a guy with Rey Ordonez like offensive skills a two year contract because he can play seven or eight positions (whether or not he plays them well is another matter), you should at least let him back up second and short, instead of signing yet another guy who can't hit. I'm starting to believe that the Mets are trying to asemble the worst bench in the history of baseball.

Some more on Tyler Yates and the fifth starters spot. Praise to David Lennon for mentioning that the fact that Yates can be optioned and Roberts can not is a factor in this decision. And this excerpt was particularly nice:

That is the difference with the post-operative Yates, who no longer can rely on a 100-mph fastball after Tommy John surgery in 2002. Yates still can reach the mid-90s, but more significantly, he can throw each of his other three pitches - slider, curve, changeup - for strikes.

Yates has developed such a feel for these pitches, in fact, that when new pitching coach Rick Peterson had him throw a side session earlier this week with his eyes closed - one of Peterson's teaching tools - Yates never missed the catcher's target.

Finally, from an otherwise positive article about Reyes and Matsui, we get this.

Injuries limited the Mets last season, particularly in September when Reyes went down with a severely sprained ankle. Right now, the only thing standing in the way of New York's plan is Reyes' health. He's had another troubling setback with his leg, suffering a strained hamstring earlier this month. While the Mets are hopeful he'll be ready for Opening Day, there are concerns that Reyes might be brittle.

Hate to keep harping on that, but it looks like i'm not the only one concerned about that leg becoming a constant worry.

Perusing through the Spring training stats:

Mike Piazza sure looks good so far, hitting .364 and slugging 758 in 33 spring training at bats. The big guy has 4 homers, a double, 16 RBI's and has racked up 25 total bases.

Ty Wigginton is hitting .306 with 2 HRs and 2 doubles in 49 at bats. I think he's going to surprise some people this year, and put up some pretty decent numbers.

The bone spur brothers, Cliff Floyd and Mike Cameron, are both tearing it up.

David Wright has had only 15 at bats, but 6 of them were hits, good for a .400 average.

Victor Diaz struggled in his 16 at bats, batting just .188. He did hit a home run.

On the other side of the ball, lots of guys are pitching well, giving some hope for the bullpen.

How about Orber Moreno, with a 0.60 ERA in 15 innings, with a 12-2 K/BB ratio.

Or senior citizen John Franco, whose got a 1.93 ERA and 14-2 K/BB ratio in 9 innings.

And then there's Dan Wheeler, owning a 0.77 ERA and a 12-1 BB/K ratio in 11.2 innings.

Of course, Braden Looper and Mike Stanton are both struggling, owning identical 7.88 ERAs

2004-03-25T18:07:00.000-05:00

The other 26 year old hard throwing right hander in the mix for the fifth starter's role Tyler Yates made the competition even more interesting, tossing five scoreless innings against the Astros last night. It should be noted that Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent were not in the lineup, but the outing was very impressing none the less. Five innings, three hits, three K's , no walks (one hit batter) against a (mostly) major league line up. For the spring, Yates has now pitched 14 innings in spring training with a micrscopic ERA of 0.64. All five of the possible fifth starters have pitched quite well so far. We'll know a lot more in a few days, after Baldwin and Erickson get there first 5+ innings starts, but at the moment Grant Roberts actually has the highest ERA of the five at 3.72. With all the talk over how well Roberts was pitching until the fifth innings against the Expos,, and now Yates has anyone taken notice of Aaron Heilman? 17.1 IP, 16 H, 4 HR, 19 K, 4 BB, 3.63 ERA Four home runs is kind of troubling, but i'm willing to overlook that as just throwing strikes, because it's spring training. Ignoring the 4 long balls, you've gotta love those numbers. He's striking out a ton of guys, not walking anyone, and giving up less then a hit an inning.

I'd have no problem with either Heilman, or Yates as the fifth starter, anyone under 30 with an upside is fine with me, but i still have to throw my support behind Grant Roberts. If we can assume that James Baldwin has no real shot at this, and the Mets eventually come to there senses about Scott Erickson, we've got three candidates. Forget about Spring training, your three guys are:

Player A: A 25 year old low nineties throwing right hander, with 277 excellent minor league innings to his credit, who struggled badly in 13 major league starts, and can be optioned back to AAA.

Player B: A 26 year old mid-high nineties throwing right hander who pitched fairly well across three levels of the minors while recovering from injury last year, has a decent minor league history and great K rate who can be optioned back to AAA.

Player C: A 26 year old mid nineties throwing, right handed former starter prospect, with a very good minor league history and a 3.62 ERA in almost 100 major league innings who can not be optioned back to AAA without clearing waivers.

Without any further comparison, there are two things here that tell us that the job should belong to Grant Roberts. 1. Player A (Heilman) and Player B (Yates), can both be sent down to AAA at will. Player C (Roberts) can not, and would have to clear waivers to be optioned to AAA. The chances of Grant Roberts, a 26 year old hard throwing pitcher with proven success in the majors who makes less then $400,000 , clearing waivers is exactly zero. So Roberts has to stay on the team, the other two don't. That alone wouldn't be an argument for putting him in the fifth spot, except for the second thing that stands out here, and that's that both Heilman and Yates might well benefit from some polishing time down in AAA. Heilman struggled badly in his 13 starts last year, Yates spent last year rehabbing an injury and pitched across three levels, spending just 20 innings at AAA.

Another thing that should be considered is that moving Roberts into the starting rotation opens a spot in the bullpen for one of the many young relief arms in the system. None of this is to criticize Yates or Heilman or even to imply that either of them wouldn't pitch well if given the last spot in the rotation. I actually think that any of the three would pitch respectably if given the job, it's just that, as i see it, there are a couple of compelling reasons to give Roberts the job (he's the only one whose got nothing left to learn at AAA, the only one who can't get sent down, and it opens a spot for someone in the bullpen), and no compelling reasons to give the job to Aaron Heilman or Tyler Yates. If one of the three had clearly outplayed the others, that's one thing, but that's not the case, Yates ERA notwithstanding. ( it's only 14 innings. Heilmans K/BB ratio impresses me more) So without someone clearly and decisively winning the job, i'm inclined to go with the guy that simply makes the most sense, and that's Roberts.

2004-03-24T17:16:00.000-05:00

Apparently the mets are close to naming another assistant GM to assist Jim Duquette. My only comment on this is to thank God that they've finally stopped using the term "Super Scout". Am i the only one who wanted to scream every time they used this phrase? And when they threw in the comparison to Gene Michaels and the Yankees...don't even get me started.

Grant Roberts had his first bad outing of the spring yesterday. After holding the Expos hitless through four innings, the 26 year old right hander ran into trouble in the fifth, and again in the sixth, before leaving the game with five earned runs and seven hits given up in five and a third innings. Of more concern then the bad outing by Roberts is the fact that this leaves the door open for the Mets to continue to consider Scott Erickson for the fifth spot in the rotation. Had Roberts continued cruising, and pitched six shutout innings, he very well could have wrapped up the fifth starters job (and there would have been much rejoicing amongst the Mets fans). Alas, it was not to be, and we will all continue to suffer for at least another week as the Mets torture us with the possibility of throwing 36 year old Scott Erickson and his 4.51 lifetime ERA out their every fifth day. Since i believe Roberts will wind up with the job, I'm trying to live in denial, and just pretending that noone under 30 has any chance of landing the last spot in the rotation. I highly recommend it as a way to avoid pulling your hair out every time you hear read that Erickson is one of the leading candidates, and that James Baldwin is still on the team.

Jose Reyes may make it back for Opening Day. I suppose this is good news, but i still can't help but worry about that leg. And turning that DP from second base isn't going to help matters. Especially when he's barely played the position this spring.

2004-03-22T20:47:00.000-05:00

I've updated my recent sidebar edition, the Quote of the Week. It's just a little thing for me to throw out there little tidbits of phiolosphy, political science, literature, musical lyrics, or anything else that i think is great writing, or a great thought. I left the first one up for a couple weeks, because it's far and away my favorite political quote ever, and politics is a passion of mine that i seldom (come to think of it, never) discuss here, this being a baseball blog and all.

One more time, for anyone who ddidnt catch it down on the sidebar:

"Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one. Government, like dress, is the badge of lost innocence; the palaces of kings are built upon the ruins of the bowers of paradise." Thomas Payne "Common Sense"

Sticking with the political theme this week, I've put up a line from another of the great thinkers of revolutionary America.

And since i'm espousing my libertarian views anyway, i might as well throw in a link to the Free State Project. I have seriously considered signing up, but can't bring myself to commit....yet.

2004-03-22T17:28:00.000-05:00

March Madness

No, i'm not talking about the NCAA tournament, i'm talking about the competition for the fifth spot in the Mets rotation. By most accounts, it's down to Scott Erickson vs Grant Roberts. To which my question is, where is the decision here? If Roberts has out performed the rest of the guys under 30, case closed, he's the fifth starter. Even if Scott Erickson might be the best candidate for this year, does anyone seriously think he's the difference between making the playoffs or not? All it does is force Roberts back into the bullpen, when he finally looks ready to succeed back in the starting role, and send another young guy back to AAA. We need to spend this year figuring out what we have in the players who are actually on the upside of there career, not trying to squeeze a couple extra wins out of a marginal veteran trying to get one or two more years in the sun. I'm sure there are teams that could use the couple of extra wins that Erickson might provide in the 5 spot if he's healthy. Teams that figure to contend for the playoffs but have problems with their starting pitching. The Cardinals come to mind, or the White Sox in the always weak AL Central. But even with a healthy Erickson in the fifth slot, this team still figures to win only 81-82 games, and that's only if several other things go well. To make a run at the playoffs everything would have to go right. And i don't know about anyone else, but i'd rather spend the season auditioning a couple of the promising, young arms in the system, then running Scott Erickson out there every fifth day in the futile hope that we'll get really, really, (really) lucky, and make a run at the wild card.

2004-03-21T10:29:00.000-05:00

I just read this in the latest Bob Klapisch article to be picked up by ESPN.com.

Incredibly, Soriano's name is still a topic of intense, internal-discussion among members of the Mets' front office. One person familiar with the club's thinking says the organization is nearly unanimous in endorsing a trade for the former Yankee, but executives have been overruled by owner Fred Wilpon.

After reading the paragraph again, just to make sure, then slapping myself a couple times to be certain i wasn't dreaming, there was a pause while i stared silently in dis-belief for about half an hour.

I know it's no secret that Wilpon is the one who ruled out trading away Reyes or Kazmir to aquire Soriano or just about anyone else, but to hear Klapisch tell it, the entire organization has endorsed yet another quick fix, only to be overruled by the suddenly far-sighted Freddy Skill Sets. The same guy who personally courted the 37 year old Tom Glavine last fall. And OK'ed the signing of 30 yr old injury plagued Cliff Floyd. Now all of a sudden He's the only road black preventing a deal for a 29 year old 40-40 guy that the entire organization wants? What happened here? Is someone impersonating Fred Wilpon? Not that i'm advocating trading for Soriano, i happen to think that Wilpon is 100% correct looking towards the long term, but what brought about this dramatic switch?

2004-03-20T11:22:00.000-05:00

This Just in...The Mets Suck by Jon Heyman

I usually stay off the Jon Heyman bashing, warranted as it is, but this might be the worst article i've ever read. There's no story here. Mr Heyman's article could be summed up in three words. "The Mets Suck". But his editors probably wouldn't have liked that, so he managed to turn those three words into an entire article, if you can call it that. 831 words of reporting injuries a week or more old, and countless quotes from nameless scouts on how one Met or another sucks. Does he have such a lack of other ideas that when there's no injury, or off the field incident, or short sighted trade rumor for him to bash the Mets over, he has to write a compilation article on the subject? The Mets Suck: A Month in Review? You'd think by now an editor would have stepped in and said "Hey Jon, write an article about something else besides how bad the Mets are for once.

Bobby V.

Ya gotta love him. In a spring training game over in Japan, Bobby V got into a "heated exchange" with the opposing manager, over the managers decision to manage the game from the third base coach's box. Apparently Valentine let a few curses fly. Pre-season and the guy is screaming curses at another manager because he thinks the guy standing in the third base box puts pressure on his pitchers. Like i said. Ya gotta love him. I still haven't gotten over the firing of Bobby V, and i still think we should bring him back. Here'es a slightly edited exerpt of what i once wrote on Valentine.

No offense to Artie from Flushing, who i actually think will be a good manager for our young players, just like he was in Oakland, but i loved Bobby V. He was the perfect man for this job. He is charismatic and very intelligent, which helped him deal well with the media circus that is New York City. He's still very popular with Mets fans, and is still involved in a number of local charities. Bobby V. was a pretty good manager to. Every manager cares about how his team does, but with Valentine it was obvious that he REALLY, REALLY cared. This is the guy who got thrown out of a game, then snuck back onto the bench wearing a fake nose and glasses. How Great is that? I have forever loved Bobby V since that moment. And best of all, opponents hated him.

As for his skills as a manager, I know it's hard to forget watching Kenny Rogers walk Andruw Jones to lose the NLCS with Octavio Dotel sitting in the bullpen, but Valentine is actually a very good strategical manager. He uses his bench and bullpen well, is knowledgable on batter/pitcher match ups and did an excellent job managing the starting rotation. He's also one of the only managers in baseball history that consistently won more games then his teams runs scored and runs allowed suggest. Bobby V is one of the only managers ever whose teams have consistently outplayed their Pythagorean records. Have a look.

(full seasons only)
Year Team....W-L.....Pythagorean W-L..Difference
1986..Tex.....87-75............84-78............+3
1987..Tex.....75-87............79-83............-4
1988..Tex.....70-91............70-91.............0
1989..Tex.....83-79............79-83............+4
1990..Tex.....83-79............79-83............+4 ( identical stats are not a typo)
1991..Tex.....85-77............82-80............+3
1997..NYM....88-74............88-74.............0
1998..NYM....88-74............88-74.............0 (again, not a typo)
1999..NYM....97-66............95-68............+2( 163 games - one game tie-breaker)
2000..NYM....94-68............88-74............+6
2001..NYM....82-80............73-89............+9
2002..NYM....75-86............79-82............-4

In 12 full seasons Valentines teams won more games then expected seven times, had the exact expected record three times, and lost more games then expected just twice. Overall his teams won 23 more games then they should have based on there runs scored and runs against. That's a hair under 2 games a year. Pythagorean records usually come within a game or two of a team's expected record, and obviously some luck is involved, but you'd expect it to be like flipping a coin. Half the time you win a couple more games then your run totals project, half the time you lose a couple more. Over time it should even out, and in fact usually does.. Valentine is the exception, not the rule. Even accounting for a bit of luck either way you'd expect a manager's won/loss record over 12 seasons to be within a handful of games to his expected record. But 23 games over? That's extremely impressive, and more then can be attributed to luck. Quite simply, Valentine is a good manager. I really do think Art Howe will be a good manager for these young kids, but firing Bobby V. was one of the worst decisions Freddy Skill Sets has ever made.

I still feel strongly about everything i wrote back in July, and i'd still love to see Valentine return to manage the Mets.Unfortuantely, there's almost no chance of that happening, but i can dream can't I? While i'm on the topic of Bobby V, how did this guy not get another job? You'd think that someone would've noticed that trend in his teams actual records vs expected records. And his game management skills are widely praised. So why is he over in Japan, when he's a better manager then almost everyone whose gotten hired since the Mets fired him? It's not like he's never had any success, making the playoffs two straight years with the Mets, and of course the World Series appearance in 2000. Valentine seems to love managing over there, but then, he'd be happy managing baseball anywhere. This is the kinda guy who'd get ejected for arguing a strike managing his kid's little league game. Even though he likes Japan, you have to assume he'd jump at the chance to come back to the big leagues, and i think the chances are that at some point in the next couple of years, somebody will give him the chance. Whoever that is will be getting a hell of a manager.

2004-03-17T06:06:00.000-05:00

Is anyone else starting to worry about Jose Reyes' right hamstring? He's not yet 21, and this will be the third time he misses time due to an injury to said hamstring. Here's an excerpt from the Post:

"I've had a lot of trouble with that leg - three times already," he said. "I feel happy that it's not bad."

Reyes strained the same hamstring last May (missing three weeks) and also last July (missing five games). Neither Reyes nor Duquette could accurately compare the current strain to the previous ones.

Reyes himself is baffled by the rash of strains, admitting, "I have to figure it out. I don't know yet what happened." Duquette said the Mets will re-evaluate Reyes' conditioning program and perhaps make modifications that could help curb the injuries.

If that last line about re-evaluating his conditioning program doesn't scare you, then i don't know what will. That's the classic offseason cliche about injuries, but it's usually reserved for guys in there 30s, who are trying to make it back for a couple more respectable seasons. It's not supposed to be used in reference to 20 yr old phenoms. What's even more troublesome is that it's his hamstring. There are two things about that which concern me. First, it could effect his speed. Second, and more importantly, hamstring problems like this are often chronic. It's not unusual for any athlete to tweak a hamstring a couple times over his career. But three pulls in ten months should throw up red flags that this could turn into an ongoing problem, if it isn't one already.

2004-03-12T23:30:00.000-05:00

The Offense

Let's take a look at the Mets offense for next year. There are better ways to do this no doubt, but here's a quick and dirty look at the offense, position by position. (Shortstop omitted due to lack of data on Kazuo Matsui, and right field ommited due to the expected platoon)

(2003 numbers - Avg/OBP/SLG/EqA)

C: MLB 258/322/403/252 Jason Phillips 298/373/442/287
Difference +40 Avg(15.5%) +11 IsoD(17.2%) -1 IsoP(.07%) + 29 EqA (11.5%)

What can we expect in 2004?(improve, decline, stay the same)

It's hard to say. Alot of pundits and so called experts have weighed in with the opinion that Phillips may have had his career year as a rookie. That's certainly possible, given that he was old for a rookie at 26, and 298/373/442 was a bit unexpected from the unheralded young catcher. When you go and look at his minor league numbers though, Phillips has a long track record of success. He has a career minor league average of 279, but that's somewhat misleading, because Phillips had some early struggles in A ball. Since moving up from A ball, Phillips has hit above that career average in all seven stops across various levels and 2+ seasons (not counting 7 at bats with the Mets in 2001). He's taken 197 walks to only 207 strike outs in his minor league career, and has always shown good gap power. Except for the 19 point jump from his career minor league average, which shouldn't be a surprise given the reasons we already discussed, Phillips did exactly what we'd expact from his minor league career. He walked once every ten at bats, struck out just slightly more, and had an IsoP of 144. All of which is virtually identical to his minor league career. Even if you expect a rookie to slip a bit from his minor league numbers, to call last year a career year for Phillips seems absurd. If anything, i think Phillips is more likely to improve, coming into his age 27 season, but for now we'll assume he stays right at those career numbers and predict:
Stay the Same

1B: MLB 271/358/462/282 Mike Piazza 286/377/483/301
Difference +15 Avg(5.5%) +4 IsoD (4.5%) +6 IsoP(3.1%) +19 EqA(6.7%)

What can we expect in 2004?

As recently as 2001 Piazza hit 300/384/573, so an MVP like season is far from out of the question if he stays healthy. However, Mike is 35 now, and catching every day has taken it's toll. He may never return to his best years (remember, the big guy has a career 319 Avg) but even if he hits 285/375 again, a big upswing in his power numbers seems like a given, as long as he avoids another serious injury. The chances of Mike Piazza playing 130+ games and posting another IsoP below 200 are extremely small. Actually it's never happened. The only time Piazza IsoP was ever below even 220 was his first 69 big league at bats in 1992. His career mark is 253. From 1999-2002 his lowest mark was 264. Needless to say, Mike still has some big time power, and if healthy, is as likely a candidate to add 50+ points to his IsoP as your ever going to find.
Improve

2B: MLB 270/334/403/259 Jose Reyes 307/334/434/274
Difference +37 Avg(13.7%) -37 IsoD(57.8%) -6 IsoP(4.5%) +15 EqA(5.8%)

What can we expect in 2004?

The phenom certainly impressed in his first taste of the majors. He may not hit 307 again, something more in line with his 288 minor league average strikes me as more likely, but after early struggles with his plate discipline, he progressed rapidly back to his minor league walk rates. If he merely maintains that he will about double his IsoD. Still just 20 years old (21 in June) he also figures to improve his IsoP as his power continues to develope. Despite the drop in Avg that i predict, i expect the increase in his discipline and power numbers to more then compensate, raising his EqA and his overall value as a hitter. Improve

3B:MLB 259/329/421/260 Ty Wigginton 255/318/396/256
Difference -4 Avg(1.5%) -7 IsoD(10%) -21 IsoP(12.9%) -4 EqA(1.5%)

What can we expect in 2004?

Wigginton actually had a very impressive minor league career, aside from 2001, when he missed signifigant time due to injury. In 1999 he hit .292/369/502 with 49 xbh(21 HR) in 456 A+ at bats as a 21 yr old(that is ridiculously impressive for the FSL). In 2000 he hit 285/321/490 with 50 xbh(20 HR) in 453 AA at bats as a 22 year old. In 2002 he hit 300/366/431 with 35 xbh(6 hr) in 383 AAA at bats as a 24 year old (then hit 302/354/526 with 14 xbh(6hr) in 116 at bats with the Mets). Aside from the IsoD in AA, everything there is great, and it all came at age appropriate competition. The only knock on Wigginton from his minor league performance is his strike out rate. He drew a75 walks, which is acceptable, but not enough to compensate for 384 strike outs in 1861 at bats. That high strike out rate is the most likely reason for his late season decline, as major league pitchers learned they didn't have to throw him alot of strikes. To his credit, Wigginton appeared to make some progress last year. As his strike out numbers went up during the slump, so did his walk numbers. So he is learning to lay off more of those bad pitches. He'll be 26 all season, and should be just entering his prime. He's never going to be a star, but here at Mets Ramblings, we, or um, I, favor objective analysis of the data, over subjective observations on talent. And while the guys who get paid to make those subjective observations on talent say that Wigginton is lacking, objective analysis of the numbers suggests that Wigginton is likely to rebound from that 255/318/396 line. I'd put even money that Wigginton is a league average or better third basemen this year. Improve

LF: MLB 280/356/466/283 Cliff FLoyd 290/376/518/309
Difference +10 Avg(3.5%) +10 IsoD(13.2%) +42 IsoP(22.6%) +29 EqA(10.4%)

What can we expect in 2004?

After finally getting two healthy years, and showing what he can do, Floyd fell back into his career trend in 2004. He was very productive when did play, but unfortuantely he missed signifigant time due to injury. If he manages to play 140 games, his rate numbers could actually go up (see 2001/2002), but predicting Floyd to be healthy is like betting on the Jets to make a smart draft pick (the Parcells era excluded). Risky, at best. If we get 125+ games from him at last year's production, we should count ourselves lucky. This is the hardest prediction of all the regulars besides Kaz Matsui. Because Floyd's going to hit whenver he plays, but who knows how often that will be? There's no way to predict injuries. So we'll assume that Floyd follows his career trend of hitting well, but not staying healthy enough to post another OPS above .920 Stay the Same

CF: MLB 274/340/427/268 Mike Cameron 253/344/431/278
Difference -21 Avg(7.7%) +25 IsoD(37.9%) +25 IsoP(16.3%) +10 EqA(3.7%)

What can we expect in 2004?

Tough to say. There's a number of things to consider here. From 1998-2000 his OPS numbers were 826/803/833. The last two years they were 782 and 775. So we know he's capable of a bit more then he's done the last two years, and it's certainly possible he returns to those levels. However, those three plus 800 OPS season came in his age 26 - 28 seasons, so it's quite possible it represented his peak, and the 775 is more indicative of what we can expect for the next few years. The second thing to consider is Safeco Field. Without running through all the numbers again, Safeco has hurt Cameron a great deal. More then we should expect from its park factor, more then it did his Mariner teammates. She is certainly no palace for hitters though, and recently Cameron's splits ahve been narrowing(758 home/ 789 road last year). So even if he performs at his road level from last year, we're talking about an OPS increase of 789. And that's not meaningfully different from his 775 overall OPS last year. So it's far from guarenteed that getting away from Safeco will help Cameron. There's one final thing to consider however, and that's Cameron's drop off in power last year.Cameron posted an IsoP above 200 in each of the last two years, but this year it slipped to 178, due not to a large drop off in his power at home, but in his power on the road. In previous years, Cameron's had huge power on the road, but last year it dropped off signifigantly, for no apparent reason. At only 31, we shouldn't yet be seeing such a drop off in his power, and i think Cameorn's a good candidate to rebound for another 25 points of IsoP. Improve

Of the six regulars that we have 2003 numbers for, 5 posted EqA's better then the league average at there position, and the sixth was so close as to essentially be league average. That's a pretty good start to an offense. If we assume Kaz is better then league average at shortstop, and the right field platoon is at least respectable, the Mets could actually have a good offense in 2004. Quick and dirty again; The six players covered above averaged 5.585 RC/27 last year. (5.585 RC/27 * 162 games =904.77 runs), and not a single one is likely to perform worse in 2004 then they did in 2003. Throw in the pitcher at -0.77 (the total of Glavine/Leiter/Traschel/Seo) and weighted at .6 because pitchers only accounted for ~300 of the ~500 at bats in the #9 spot last year and you wind up at 804 runs expected from last years numbers, without factoring in Kaz, right field, or the ~200 pinch hits for the pitcher. If Kaz performs reasonably well compared to his Japanese numbers, say the 5.33 RC/27 mark posted by Angel Berroa last year, which seems pretty reasonable, that pushes it back to ~811 runs. Are the Mets likely to score 800+ runs next year? That's stretching it. Floyd's not likely to stay healthy, Piazza remains an injury risk, noone knows how Matsui or the RF platoon will do, and those RC/27 expectations are just real quick, un adjusted numbers based on what players did last year. But with noone likely to decline, a couple of people likely to improve, it's certainly within the realm of possibility if we stay healthy and don't experience any signifigant bad luck in terms of player performance. Something like 750 runs seems very reasonable, which would probably rank us slightly above average in the 16 team national league. And that would be a huge improvement over the 15th we ranked last year.

2004-03-12T21:05:00.000-05:00

This is non Mets related, but i had to get it out somewhere, and seeing as i have a blog.

Last night on PTI, Kornheiser and Wilbon were discussing the "hit" Todd Bertuzi put on Colorado's Steve Moore. Kornheiser mentioned that Bertuzzi might never get past this incident, as far as his reputation goes. And then the two had an exchange that sounded something like this.

Wilbon: "He'll get past it, Dale Hunter got over the Turgeon thing"

Kornheiser: "This was worse the that though, this was worse then Hunter's hit on Turgeon"

At which point, i thought Wilbon, the self proclaimed hockey fan, would step in and disagree with that. But he didn't, and they moved on to the next topic. Now this subject is rather person to me in a way, so please excuse me if i rant a bit.

In 1993 Pierre Turgeon was the man on Long Island. He wasn't just our best player, he was a superstar of the highest caliber. He tallied 58 goals, and 132 points that season, 5th in the NHL, and was nominated for the Hart Trophy (MVP). Turgeon was a force that could dominate an NHL game, his 50th goal essentially knocked the hated Rangers out of playoff contention. He was nothing short of our saviour, the player who'd returned the Islanders to contention. In the first round of the playoffs, the Islanders faced the Washington Capitals. The dropped the 1st game in Washington 3-1. Then 3 straight OT victories, to give the Islanders a commanding 3-1 series lead. Back in Washington for game 5 (the NHL used the 2-2-1-1-1 format for playoffs back then), Washington kept it's season alive with 6-4 victory. The series shifted back to the Island, and a raucous Nassua Colliseum for Game 6. Lifted by there home crowd, the Islanders were dominant, skating to a 4-1 lead. With about 8:30 left, Turgeon skated skated down the right wing, and lifted one past Caps goalie Don Beaupre, putting the Isles up 5-1, and effectively ending any chance Washington had of a comeback. Turgeon lifted his arms, teammates rushed to mob him, their advancement now virtually assured. The Collisseum went nuts. And then Dale Hunter stepped in. As Turgeon swept towards the boards in celebration, Hunter made his way from the other side of the ice, clearly seeking out the man who'd just ended his season. He charged up behind the Islanders star, leveling him with a crosscheck. Turgeon never saw it coming. He was in full celebration, his back turned towards the ice. Turgeon crumpled as the stick came across his back, smashing into the boards. Nassau Colliseum grew deathly silent, and Islander fans across the new york/new jersey area stared in disbelief, unable to believe what they'd just witnessed. Turgeon wound up with a seperated shoulder, missing the rest of the playoffs. He would return healthy the next season, but has never been the same player since the Hunter incident.

Despite the loss of Turgeon,. the Islanders managed to beat the monster that was the early 90s Pittsburgh Penguins in the Patrick Division Finals, before bowing out to the eventual Cup winner, the Montreal Canadiens, in the Wales Conference Finals. Despite the miracle victory over the Penguins, Islanders fans wonder to this day how much further we might have gone with Turgeon. It's not just that he was injured, star players get injured i nthe playoffs all the time. It was how it happened. Not on a legal, or even semi legal check, not even during the play of the game. Turgeon was hurt in a purely malicious act, a blatant attempt to injure. And worst of all, it was after play was stopped. This is what seperates Hunter's hit form the rest of the ugly incidents in hockey that have been brought up over the last few days. Play was stopped, there was no action on the ice, the Islanders were celebrating. There is no other possible explanation for what Hunter did except that he wanted to hurt Turgeon. For those of you out there who arent hockey fans, let me use an analogy. It's the 4th quarter of a first round NFL playoff game. Your pro bowl quarterback takes one into the end zone ona short scramble, sealing the victory and your pass to the second round. He raises his arms in celebration, and waits for his teammates to meet him. But before they get there, a defensive linemen from the other team decides he wants some payback on the guy whose sending him home. He charges up from behind, driving his shoulder into the center of your unexspecting quarterbacks back, and slamming him down into the turf with a seperated shoulder. That is what Dale hunter did to Pierre Turgeon. What Bertuzzi did to Moore is what Warren Sapp did to Clifton last year, when he leveled the unexpecting Packers offensive linemen away from the play. Is there any doub tin your mind that someone leveling a celebrating player after he'd scored a touchdown would be percieved as much, much worse then Sapp's hit on Clifton, which while bad, was at least done while play was in action? Plain and simple, Dale hunter crossed a line. Every time a player scores in hockey, especially in the playoffs, he celebrates. A standard is sweeping towards the boards with your arms raised, waiting to be mobbed in the corner by your teammates. Dale Hunter has done exactly that plenty of times during his NHL career, and not once did he ever fear being attacked by a vengeful player on the other side. It simply isn't done. 21 games was far too little for what Hunter did, he should have been suspended for an entire season or more, because he crossed a line between playing a violent game, and blatantly attempting to injure another person when the game was stopped. It was borderline criminal, and in fact one New York politician called for a Grand Jury investigation on whether or not Hunter should face criminal charges. If Kornheiser, a long time writer for the Washington Post, actually believes that Bertuzzi's hit on Moore was worse, he needs to seriosuly re-examine this, because there's just no comparison.

2004-03-11T20:10:00.000-05:00

Top 10 Mets Prospects - Part 3

8. Bob Keppel

2001: A (19) 118 H, 43 ER, 6 HR, 87 K, 25 BB in 124.1 IP for 3.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.31 K/9, 3.24 K/BB, 0.43 HR/9
2002: A+ (20) 162 H, 73 ER, 13 HR, 109 K, 43 BB in 152 IP for 4.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.45 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.77 K/9
2003: AA (21) 92 H, 32 ER, 6 HR, 46 K, 27 BB in 94.2 IP for 3.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.37 K/9 1.70 K/BB, 0.57 HR/9

Bob Keppel was Drafted 36th overall in the 2000 draft, out of DeSmet Jesuit High School in Missouri. He is an excellent athlete, who passed up playing baseball and basketball at Notre Dame to turn pro when the Mets drafted him. In the last two years he's established himself as one of the Mets top pitching prospects, making quick progress through the minors. His stuff is not overpowering, with a fastball that tops out about 90 on the two-seamer, and 91-92 on the 4, but Keppel throws a wide variety of pitches, including the two fastballs, splitter, cut-slider, and a change up. He compliments his strong repertoire with excellent command, having walked just 108 batters in 414.1 minor league innings (2.35 BB/9). The rest of his minor league numbers aren't overhwleming, but keep in mind his age. Keppel has a June birthday, so while his "season age" for last year is 21, a little less then half his innings came at 20 years old. Slightly less then half the FSL numbers came at 19, etc. So Keppel has been young for his league every year. He may well start this year in AAA, still two months shy of his 22nd birthday. The biggest question about Keppel is the K rate. Up till this year he had averaged about 6.5 K/9. Not great, but certainly acceptable. This year, his first test in the high minors, Keppel's K/9 declined to below 4.5, raising some questions about whether or not his stuff will be good enough to get hitters out as he continues to move up. Then i came across this report: "The low part of the season for Keppel was the seemingly constant strained forearm he had to deal with all season. Because of the injury the Mets did not allow him to throw his strikeout pitch which is a split-finger fastball, and sharply dropped his strikeout numbers for the season.". So it seems that an injury was at least partly responsible for the decline in his K rate. And it should be noted he managed to pitch a rather nice season despite the lack of strike outs. Hopefully Keppel comes back healthy this season, and we can get a better idea of whether the drop in K rate was a result of the injury, or the increased competition.

With decent velocity, exceptional command, and at least 5 solid pitches, Keppel is a pretty good bet for success despite the the questions surrounding his K rate. None of the pitches are particularly spectacular, so he doesn't figure to ever be a top of the rotation starter, but he should be an effective middle of the rotation guy, and at 6-5, 200+ lbs, he figures to be a workhorse who can eat a lot of innings. Keppel should begin the year in AAA, unless the logjam of arms at the top of the organization (it feels really nice to say that, even if most of them don't project to be anything special), forces him into AA to start the year. Either way, Keppel could be ready to compete for a rotation spot as early as 2005.

9. Kevin Deaton
2000: R (19) 15 H, 7 ER, 1 HR, 19 K, 4 BB in 20 IP for 3.15 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.55 K/9, 4.75 K/BB, 0.47 HR/9
2001: R (20) 40 H, 11 ER, 2 HR, 43 K, 10 BB in 47.1 IP for 2.09 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.18 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 0.38 HR/9
2002: A- (21) 68 H, 28 ER, 2 HR, 93K, 18 BB in 82 IP for 3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 5.17 K/BB, 0.22 HR/9
2003: A (22) 128 H, 58 ER, 8 HR, 121 K, 56 BB in 135.1 IP for 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.05 K/9, 2.16 K/BB, 0.53 HR/9

Deaton was a highly regarded offensive linemen coming out of high school, and he was supposed to attend University of Florida on a football scholarship. Deaton chose baseball instead, and signed with the Mets in 2000. Deaton stands 6'4, and as an offensive linemen, weighed nearly 300 lbs coming out of high school. He's worked extremely hard to reshape his body for pitching, but still weighs in near 250. He spent two years in rookie ball getting into pitching shape, and pitching rather well why he did it. Deaton dominated the Sally League in 2002, and moved up to the FSL last year. His previously excellent control slipped a bit, causing a rise in his WHIP, and probably led to the increase in his ERA as well. He still pitched rather well though, and posted excellent K/9 and HR/9 numbers, as he's done his entire pro career. Deaton repertoire is pretty basic at this point, but he's got good stuff. He throws a 4 seam fastball at around 93-94, but could well pick up a couple mph as he continues to re condition his body. He compliments the fastball with a plus curve, and a solid change up. There are two main questions surrounding Deaton. The first is whether or not he'll be able to improve his stamina enough to continue as a starter. And the second is his age. Even though he was drafted out of high school, he was 19 by the time he began his pro career and then spent 2 years at rookie ball. By the time he got to short season A ball, he was the age of most college draft picks, but had just 67 innings of rookie ball under his belt. It should be noted that Deaton is an August birthday, so like Keppel, he's a bit younger relative to his league then his official season age makes it seem. But even still, he turned 22 last year in the Sally League. He'll start this year in the FSL, and barring a quick promotion, will turn 23 without a single inning pitched above A ball. Given the extenuating circumstances surrounding his switch from 300 lb offensive linemen, to starting pitcher, it's hard to hold his age against him to the extent that we might hold it agianst another 22 year old in the Sally League. He was still rather old for the league though, and Deaton will have to continue his success and move quickly to the high minors, or he risks falling off of prospect lists.

10. Lastings Milledge

I have no doubt that anyone who does this for a living would tell me Milledge belongs higher on the list, and who am i to argue with them. I chose to place him last on this list, because there is no doubt he belongs on it, but so little is known about him i couldn't begin to try and rank him amongst guys we actually have some numbers for. Nobody knows anything about Milledge besides his scouting report, unless you think you can discern something from 26 at bats in rookie ball. Milledge was one of the top high school talents in last year's draft. The Mets took him 12th overall, but he signed late and only played 7 games. The Mets describe him as a "legitimate five tool player" and scouting reports rave about his bad speed, running speed, and arm strength. Thankfully, Milledge is not a pure tools, all speculation prospect, as so many of the so called " five tool" high school players are. Not that there isn't a huge amount of speculation going into Milledge developing his tools into skills, because there is, but Milledge has already shown at least some of the skills that his tools are supposed to project into. He plays a strong center, and is already regarded as one of the best defensive outfielders in the Mets system. Milledge has also shown a nice power stroke at his young age (though admittedly, it's all in BP at this point). His biggest weaknesses at this point are adjusting to the breaking pitch, and a questionable history with wood bats. We'll know a lot more about Milledge after this season. A good performance could move him up prospect lists real fast.

2004-03-09T03:04:00.000-05:00

Athletics Nation has started a "movement" for "National Pastime Day". A national holday on opening day of every baseball season. To coincide with the holiday, every team would play on a single opening day. I don't think i need to tell you all that i'm on board with this idea. Click the link to read more.

2004-03-06T06:36:00.000-05:00

Top 10 Mets Prospects - Part 2

This is the second part in my look at the ten best prospects in the Mets organization. Once again, please note that Kazuo Matsui, and anyone who broke into the majors last year, sucesffuly or not, are not included on this list (Jose Reyes, Jason Phillips, Jae Weong Seo, Aaron Heilman, Jeremy Griffiths, the slew of relief pitchers, etc).

Last time, i covered "the big three" of Kazmir, Wright, and Huber. Beyond deciding whether Kazmir or Wright is number 1, the top 3 are very clear. You won't read any articles on Mets prospects this year where those aren't the first three guys listed (unless they're counting Matsui, like Baseball America). After that though, different authors are likely going to have very different views about the ranking of the second tier of prospects in the system. And with something as hard to project as baseball players, noone is really right or wrong. Even when based on the objective data, how to rank the second tier of the Mets, and i suspect any system still becomes a very subjective decision. That said, here's how i ranked them.

4. Victor Diaz

2001: R (19) 354/403/533 in 195 AB with 27 xbh (3 HR) and 16/23 BB/K (won league batting championship)
2002: A (20) 350/407/521 in 349 AB with 38 xbh (10 HR) and 27/69 BB/K (won league batting championship)
2002: AA (20) 211/258/336 in 152 AB with 11 xbh (4 HR) and 7/42 BB/K
2003: AA (21) 291/353/462 in 316 AB with 32 xbh (10 HR) and 27/60 BB/K (LA)
2003: AA (21) 354/382/520 in 175 AB with 17 xbh (6 HR) and 8/32 BB/K (NYM)

No, Victor Diaz apparently does not know how to take a walk. Something, which i think you all know, i hate in a player. And he probably won't wind up playing either second or third base, but in a corner outfield spot, which greatly decreases the value of his bat. So why have i ranked him so high? Because what a bat it looks like. He came into rookie ball at 19 and proceeded to win a batting title. He skips short season A ball, moving right to the South Atlantic League, and wins another batting title.He struggles in his first taste of AA, at 20 years old, but comes back in 2003 and performs well until being traded to the Mets, where he explodes, and hit's 350 again. Even with his struggles in late 2002, he hit 49 xbh and 14 HR across two levels as a 20 year old. And this year he hit 49 xbh and 16 HR in AA as a 21 yr old. Even if the plate discipline doesn't improve, i'm starting to believe that Diaz is one the few who hits well enough to succeed to despite it (think Garret Anderson, not Soriano). I'm not quite convinced yet, but if Diaz comes into AAA, and hits 300 plus with some power, something which seems fairly likely, he's going to force his way into the majors, plate discipline or not. If he ever learns to take a walk, and forces pitchers to give him good pitches to hit, Diaz has monster witten all over him. With improved plate discipline, lines like 330/415/575 with 30 home runs and 30 doubles is far from out of the question.

5. Aaron Baldiris

2002: R (19) 327/390/419 in 217 AB with 13 xbh (3 HR) and 14/24 BB/K
2003: A (20) 313/396/427 in 393 AB with 29 xbh (6 HR) and 51/55 BB/K

Following one step behind David Wright is Aaron Baldiris, signed out of Venezuala in 1999. He doesn't have the top prospect status and high expectations of his fellow third basemen, Baldiris has quietly established himself as a very good prospect. He has a career minor league average of 323, and has already shown advanced plate discipline, with a nearly 1:1 BB/K ratio as a 20 year old. Baldiris handles the bat very well, and can spray hits to all fields. Combined with his patience, which should continue to get him good pitches to hit, he seems like a good bet to continue his success at the plate as he moves on to tougher competition. Moving to the FSL will no doubt effect his numbers next year, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him amongst the FSL batting leaders for 2004. Baldiris has also shown good defensive skills. Once again, not in the class of Wright, whose been described as "a Gold Glove waiting to happen", but Baldiris is already solid at the hot corner, and coule likely make a switch to second if needed. The only thing holding him back from being a top prospect is his power. At 21, he still has time, and he began to show a bit of power potential last year with 29 extra base hits. His XBH% was just 23 though, and it looks doubtful that Baldiris will ever develope more then average power. Even without the power, he can be a very good player, with the potential to be a 300/400 guy, who plays good defense. The real question is where does he fit on the Mets. With Wright presumably at third base, and Reyes at second, Baldiris may not have a spot on the team until 2007 at the earliest, and only then if Matsui is let go and Reyes moved back to short. If Wright establishes himself at third, and Matsui succeeds in the majors, then Baldiris is very likely to become trade bait.

6. Matt Peterson

2002: A (20) 109 H, 59 ER, 13 HR, 153 K, 61 BB in 137 IP for 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 10.05 K/9, 2.51 K/BB, 0.85 HR/9
2003: A+ (21) 65 H, 16 ER, 2 HR 73 K, 24 BB in 84 IP for 1.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.82 K/9, 3.04 K/BB, 0.21 HR/9
2003: AA (21) 29 H, 12 ER, 2 HR, 23 K, 20 BB in 31 IP for 3.48 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.67 K/9 1.15 K/BB, 0.58 HR/9

Drafted in the 2nd round of 2000, Matt Peterson is no doubt the second best pitching prospect in the system, and is often ranked as high as 4th on Mets top 10 lists. His main weapons are a mid 90s fastball, and a plus curve which he can throw for strikes. Like most young pitchers, Peterson is still developing a change up, but has reportedly made good progress with it. At 20, Peterson was beginning his pro career a little late, but the Mets decided to put him directly into A ball, where he excelled, except for some minor struggles with his command. After allowing him to spend an entire year in the Sally League, the Mets moved Peterson quickly from the FSL, where he was dominant, to AA. The struggles with his command in 31 AA innings aside, Peterson has been very succesful so far in his pro career,with the excellent indicators of 8.76 K/9, 2.36 K/BB and 0.59 HR/9 in his minor league career. He projects as a solid no 2 or 3, with the potential to be an ace if he puts it all together. Despite the late start, Peterson is at an appropriate level of competition, entering his first full year of AA at 22, and if all goes well, he will be in AAA by 23 at the latest. Peterson is yet another player who we could see in Shea by late 2005. If not, he should be ready at the start of 2006

7. Royce Ring

2002: A+ (21) 20 H, 10 ER, 2 HR, 22K, 11 BB in 23 IP for 3.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.61 K/9, 2.00 K/BB, 0.78 HR/9
2003: AA (22) 33 H, 10 ER, 1 HR, 44K, 14 BB in 35.2 IP for 2.52 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 11.10 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 0.25 HR/9 (Chi)
2003: AA (22) 13 H, 4 ER, 2 HR, 18K, 11 BB, in 21.2 IP for 1.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.48 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 0.83 HR/9 (NYM)

The main piece in the Roberto Alomar deal, Royce Ring was originally drafted by the White Sox in the first round of the 2002 draft. As a potential left handed closer, he is one of the better relief prospects in the game. Ring's velocity has been a matter of some discussion. Most reports say his fastball is usually 90-93, but there have been a few rumblings about it sometimes being more like 87-89. Obviously, this could make a good bit of difference in his success. For now, i'm going to assume (and hope) that the ones that are correct are the majority of reports, and all those done by "major" sources, which say that his fastball is in the low nineties. Ring also has a sharp breaking ball that is tough on lefties, and an above average change up, which helps him get righties out. Ring will begin the year in AAA, and could easily be in Shea by mid season.

That's the end of Part 2, what i see as the second tier of prospects in the system. Stay tuned for numbers 8-10, and a few honorable mentions.

2004-03-06T00:37:00.000-05:00

Top 10 Prospects Part 2 is underway and will be up sometime Saturday

2004-03-02T03:34:00.000-05:00

Top 10 Mets Prospects - Part 1

These are always my favorite articles. Just writing about the talented prospects in the system fills me with hope for the future. Just a few years ago, the Mets minor league system was among the worst in baseball. But over the last three seasons, we've made great strides towards becoming a succesful talent producing organization, and there are now a great number of promising young players up and down the system. Alot of the credit goes to Duquette, who was in charge of the minor league system during the recent improvement, and whose trades last year brought in a couple of good prospects ( Diaz, Ring) and several power arms, which add very important depth. With the pieces in place now, and the talent coming up through the system, we can be successful for a long time if we play our cards right. So let's get to it, and look at the best prospects in the organization. We'll start today with "the big 3" before covering the rest tommorow. For the record, i ommited Kaz Matsui from consideration, along with anyone who recieved major league playing time last year.

1. Scott Kazmir

I'm just waiting for the e-mail from Avkash on this one. Whose number one, Kazmir or Wright has been the subject of some debate between us. I thought long and hard about this, and there is no doubt that Wright is imminently more projectable, and the odds are better that he'll succeed then Kazmir. However, Kazmir's talent appears limitless. His stuff is off the charts nasty, he has shown the willingness and ability to learn, and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in baseball. He doesn't get this spot on those laurels alone though, the young fireballer has been nothing short of dominant in his pro career.

2002: short season A - Age 18: 18 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 34 K, 7 BB, for 0.50 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9, 17.00 K/9, 4.86 K/BB
2003: A - Age 19: 76.1 IP, 50 H, 20 ER, 6 HR, 105 K, 28 BB for 2.36 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 0.71 HR/9, 12.38 K/9, 4.32 K/BB
2003: A+ - Age 19: 33 IP, 29 H, 12 ER, 0 HR, 40 K, 16 BB, for 3.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9, 10.90 K/9 2.50 K/BB

The numbers slipped a little in the FSL, but they're still very, very impressive for a 19 year old. As an added bonus, Kazmir pitched a gem to win the championship game for St Lucie. So Kazmir gets the nods as our number 1 prospect, because there's little question he's got the most talent, and the highest ceiling in our organization, and so far he's done nothing but live up to every expectation with his performance.

So now that we've established that he's the no 1 prospect, let's talk a little about Scott Kazmir. Many people compare him to Billy Wagner, because they are both small statured left handed flamethrowers from Texas. It's probably a better comparison then most of them even realize, because like Wagner, Kazmir relies on a fastball slider combo that is downright offensive, and could dominate alot of major league hitters right now. The fastball sits around 97, but can touch 99, and has excellent late movement. The slider is fast, hard, and has a mean break. It will give left handers fits, and comes fast enough with enough movement that it can be effective coming inside on right handers. Since turning pro, Kazmir has been working on a change-up, and has made excellent progress with it. There have even been reports that he has the confidence to use it as an out pitch from time to time, when he's got opposing hitters geared up for that fastball. The small stature, and the comparison to Wagner lead a lot of people to speculate that Kazmir's future is as a closer, but he'll be given every chance to remain a starter, and the Mets have been extremely careful with their prized prospect thus far, keeping him on a strict pitch limit. Kazmir might begin the year back in the FSL, but should move quickly to AA. Though the best timetable for him is still probably 2006, don't be surprised if Kazmir moves quickly through the system once the Mets free up his pitch limit a little bit A lot will depend on where he starts this year. I'm assuming he'll start back in the FSL, but if the Mets decide to put him in AA, and he performs well, then we could see him in AAA late in the year. If that's the case, we could well see Kazmir in 2005.

2. David Wright

Our runner up, David Wright is the best position player in the system, and the prospect with the highest chance of success. Wright doesn't have the extremely high ceiling typically associated with such high rated prospects. That's not to say that it's not high, a best case scenario for Wright is something like Scott Rolen, and that's pretty damn good. It just means that most prospects who get rated as high as Wright have the potential to be 300+/400+ 40 HR guys, while Wright seems more like a 290/390 25-30 HR guy, which usually drops a player further down prospect lists. The recognition given to him is a tribute to his already developed game, which makes him extremely projectable. While he may not have the best case potential of some other players, the chances of him making good on his potential are extremely high for a prospect. He has an outstanding work ethic, an already refined understanding of the strike zone, has shown excellent power developement, plays a great third base, and as an added bonus steals some bases at a very high rate. All this before he's every played a day above A ball. Let's take a look at the numbers.

2001: R (18) 300/382/458 with 11 xbh (4 HR) and 16/30 BB/K in 120 AB. 9 SB in 10 attempts
2002: A (19) 266/367/401 with 43 xbh (11 HR) and 76/114 BB/K in 496 AB. 21 SB in 26 attempts
2003: A+ (20) 270/369/459 with 56 xbh (15 HR) and 72/98 in 466 AB. 19 SB in 24 attempts

Let's talk a little about those St Lucie numbers from last year. At first glance, they're good but not great. Those numbers need to be taken in context though. The FSL could officially be renamed the "death to hitters leauge". That 459 SLG of Wright's was third in the entire league. And his 369 OBP was tied for fourth. Wright came into the FSL this year at 20 years old, and improved both his power and discipline numbers from last year in the Sally Leauge. That's impressive. So is the fact that 43 % of his 126 hits went for two or more bases. Anything above 30% is good for the FSL, 43% is exceptional. It suggests that Wright's power is developing very well. Wright should begin this year in AA, and with Wigginton solid enough at third, there is no need to rush him. He could well spend the year at AA, but switching from the FSL, to hitter friendly Binghamton, don't be surprised if Wright plays his way into AAA by mid season. He could arrive at Shea by 2005.

3. Justin Huber

2001: R (19) 314/381/528 with 19 xbh (7 HR) and 17/42 BB/K in 159 AB
2002: A (20) 291/408/470 with 35 xbh (11 HR) and 45/81 BB/K in 330 AB
2002: A+ (20) 270/370/400 with 6 xbh (3 HR) and 11/18 BB/K in 100 AB
2003: A+ (21) 284/370/514 with 24 xbh (9 HR) and 17/30 BB/K in 183 AB
2003: AA (21) 264/350/425 with 19 xbh (6 HR) and 19/54 BB/K in 193 AB

Despite his superb start to the year ( remember to look at those numbers in the context of the Florida State League, 370 would have been third in OBP,and 514 tied for the lead league in SLG, 55 points ahead of third place David Wright), Huber's stock may actually have dropped some this year. Last year at this time there was some dispute over who was the second best position player in the system, Wright or Huber ( Reyes being the clear no.1 at the time). This year, there is no debate. Wright is widely, if not universally regarded as the Mets best position player prospect. Alot of that is Wright's strong performance last year, and in the Arizona Fall League, but it's also in part because Huber struggled in AA, and did not impress defensively. The struggles in AA probably aren't too big of a concern, it's normal for players to see there numbers drop at first as they take the big jump to AA, but they're worth noting because of the very high strikeout rate, and because moving from the extremely pitcher friendly FSL to hitter friendly Binghamton should have compensated for at least part of that. In fact, i suspect that a sabermetrician would probably tell us that it did, and Huber's performance level went down even more then the numbers show once he moved to AA. Of more importance is the defense. Huber has failed to make signifigant progress behind the plate, and is still raw at best. It has some people suggesting that he could eventually wind up at 1st base, which of course would greatly decrease the value of his bat. He'll be giving plenty more chances to improve at catcher, but if he moves to first base, Huber instantly drops down at least a few, and possibly several spots on this list. For now though, he's still a catcher, so his hitting potential makes him a pretty clear number 3 in the system. The defensive complications make Huber's timetable a little unclear. He'll start this year at AA, and if his bat warrants it could move to AAA by mid season, but if he is still struggling defensively at catcher, it could delay his promotion to the majors. And if it forces a switch to first base, some time has to be allowed, perhaps even a whole season, for him to learn the new position. If, as we all hope, he improves behind the plate, then Huber could arrive sometime in 2005.

2004-02-29T23:56:00.000-05:00

I've just returned from my brother's wedding. I meant to tell you all that before i left thursday, but it slipped my mind. I'm beginning a new article this very moment, and will have it up sometime in the next 24 hours.

2004-02-22T01:25:00.000-05:00

Celebration - in full sweet swing
Of everyone and everything
That causes hopes and dreams to rise
Bringing love light to your eyes
Bringing laughter to your heart
Celebration, let it start

"Celebration" Phil Lesh / Robert Hunter

Forget about Puxatony Phil, if you want to know when spring will arrive, one need only wait for those beautiful words "pitchers and catchers report", and you can be sure that spring is soon to come. More importantly, it means that baseball is near. Another season of home runs and strike outs, of seventh inning stretches, day games at Wrigley, and Barry Zito curveballs. Another summer wondering if Barry Bonds is really human, or if there was some kind of mix up in a hospital on Krypton. I'm guessing the latter. And please, no BALCO jokes.

Maybe it's the tie in with winter turning into spring, or maybe Americans just have a habit of romanticizing our game. Whatever the reason though, there is no doubt that spring training is special, meaningful in a way that the pre seasons and exhibitions of other sports are not. Nobody cares when the exhibition season starts for the NBA or the NHL. NFL mini camps and training camps are minor stories in the local paper of each team. But when spring training starts it's a different story. From the day pitchers and catchers report, you can count on daily reports from Florida or Arizona in newspapers of every major league city. Sports Illustrated, ESPN and many others will do extensive season previews and spring training reports. Baseball fans everywhere begin talking of the new season, always full of hope. And the season is still 6-7 weeks away. What other sport can boast such enthusiasm, so far from the actual start of games?

I'm no different, i start talking about the new baseball season long before i do football, or even hockey, even though (as i've mentioned), hockey is actually my favorite sport. Even though we're still a month and a half from games that actually count, and with the NHL and my Islanders deep into the push for the playoffs, more and more of my thoughts are devoted to baseball, and the Mets. With that in mind, i thought i'd do a little spring training writing of my own. over the next couple of weeks I'll be taking an extensive look at.... well, whatever i feel like really, but rest assured it will all be Mets related in that happy, sometimes overly optimistic season preview sort of way. So, let's get to it.

Biggest Stories going into Spring Training

1. The Move

Kaz who? New pitching coach? Reyes is moving where? What Mets fans really want to know this spring is what's the deal with Piazza moving to first. There's little doubt that Piazza has been in a decline , his OPS, and his IsoP have all gone down four years in a row. But even if he so, he's a future hall of famer, hopefully in a Mets cap, and still by far the biggest star on this team. So while it's certainly not the most important story of the spring, at least in how it relates to our season, there is no doubt that the long anticipated switch to first base for Piazza is the number one story of spring training. Once Piazza breaks the home run record for catchers, there's no reason he shouldn't be playing first base full time, despite the defensive liabilities. The move has been delayed long enough. It's time to give Mike's knees a rest and see if good health can return his MVP like ways at the plate. Unfortunately, all signs point towards Piazza still catching 80 + games this year, and not making a complete transition to first base. If this move had been started last year, or the year before, as many called for, then Piazza could already be comfortable at first base, ready for a full, hopefully healthy season there. Instead he'll still be subject to the riggors of catching semi daily. We can only hope he avoids the injuries that have plagued him the last two years.

2. The Pitching Guru

If you ask me, and i'll pretend you did, this is the most signifigant move the Mets made this offseason, perhaps the most signifigant move since the Piazza and Leiter trades that changed the face of the franchise. Rick Peterson and his bio mechanical analysis driven techniques changes everything about the pitching throughout the organization. To quote Peterson "In God we trust, all others must have data". Peterson's philosophy could have an effect on any number of pitchers through out the organization, but most importantly, it should be a big help to players like Jae Weong Seo, Aaron Heilman, Scott Kazmir, Matt Peterson, and the other young starting prospects in every level from A-ball to the majors. And his hiring is a first sign that maybe, just maybe, this organization is starting to take notice of what's been going on in Oakland, Toronto, and Boston. Whenever i get frustrated with the bad decisions, and start to think the Wilpon's will just never learn, i remember that we hired Rick Peterson, and some hope returns.

3. Kaz Matsui

The latest star player to come over from Japan, Kaz Matsui's transition to the majors is one of the key factors to the Mets season. A superstar of the highest caliber back home (think A-Rod with 30-35 instead of 50+ home runs), Kaz passed up a lot of money to come to America and try his game. So how will he do? It's very difficult to say. There's lots of player who have played in various levels of baseball here, that have moved to Japan. But there's only three Japanese hitters that have ever come to the majors. That means that it's very difficult to measure the leagues respective difficulties, or make any informed judgements on how Japanese players statistics translate to the majors. So whatever anyone says is simply their personal opinion, and nothing more, though admittedly some people are much more qualified to offer their opinion then others. I am in no way qualified to offer my opinion on this, but I'll give it to you anyway. I think Matsui will be good. I think there's a very good chance he'll be good enough offensively to justify 7 million a year, assuming he's defensively superior, as said. (Though it should be noted that without looking at any numbers for Ichiro or the other Matsui, i think it's a real safe guess that Matsui will generate a few million dollars worth of revenue in Japan, so he doesn't really cost 7 million). Whether or not he'll be good enough to justify shifting Reyes is another matter.

4. We have a center fielder again!

And it only took 15 years. Hey, maybe we can address that right field hole by 2010. I know, I know, one step at a time. All kidding aside though, i'm a supporter of this move. No, he's not Carlos Beltran, but i think it's been well established amongst the statistically oriented community that Make Cameron has grown into the best defensive center fielder in baseball. And he's pretty good with the bat too. As opposed to Matsui, there's very little doubt about what we can expect from Cameron, he has a well established level of play in the majors. As i went over on my site at the time of the signing, the production of Cameron and Andruw Jones on the road has been fairly similar over the last three seasons. That is, needless to say, pretty good for a center fielder. And he comes for just three years / 19.5 million, with a team option for a fourth year at 7 million. Considering the price, this is a very low risk sign. We know what we can expect from Cameron, and while he is past the age where we might expect improvement, he is not yet at the age at which we should begin to expect decline. If he's the player that he was in Seattle, that's just fine. If we get lucky, and moving from Safeco helps him, even better. This was a real good move by Duquette.

5. The other move
So let me get this straight. A 20 year old shortstop with superior range, arm strength, and running speed comes to the majors and hits 307 over 274 at bats. Not only that, but he increases his batting average every month, hitting 330 in July, and 355 in August. And if that weren't good enough for you, he increases his IsoD (Isolated Discipline OBP - AVG) every month as well. Oh, almost forgot, he stole 13 bases in 16 tries (81%), including 12 in his last 13 attempts. The kid's got future star written all over him. Then, instead of going out and looking for a second basemen, or a stop gap until a second base solution comes along, the team decides to go and sign a shorstop of somewhat unknown quality, and makes the phenom learn a new position in his first full year in the majors. So you can understand why many Mets fans, myself included, are still far from sold on this whole situation. Only time will tell how it works out. But here's a bit of irony for you. Playing second base, the best case comparison for Reyes would now have to be none other then Roberto Alomar.

2004-02-17T21:42:00.000-05:00

Well, the big news in baseball these days is A -Rod in New York. I'm not trying to downplay this, because it's a travesty, but i think people are over reacting to how much better this makes the Yankees this season. A-Rod is a better hitter then Soriano, primarily because he draws more walks. But Soriano is far from unproductive. He's the second best offensive second basemen in the AL ( see Boone, Bret), and he's all of 26 years old. He's got two seasons under his belt where he just missed 40/40, and he hits in the .290-.300 area. Unless your trading for Barry Bonds, there's just so much of an offensive improvement your going to get from that, espeically on a team that already had a chance at 1000 runs. A-Rod's bat is worth at most a couple of wins over Soriano's over the course of a season. That coule be huge, one or two games could mean the division title, but can we please stop talking about it like this team should all of a sudden win 130 games? I actually heard Harold Reynolds say tonight that "A-Rod could be the first right handed hitter to put up 30-40 home runs as a Yankee in quite awhile. People can't really be so wrapped up in this that they've become that short sighted, can they? Assuming he hits 30-40 homers, (which seems like a given), Rodriguez will be the first Yankee right handed hitter to do so since..... Alfonso Soriano, the last two years.

I think that part of it is hows everyone always refers to Alex Rodriguez as the best player in the game, and when you talk about adding the best player in the game, everyone just seems to assume that he'll make the Yankees so much better without really thinking about it. Well here's a news flash folks. Playing third base, Alex Rodriguez is not necessarly the the best player in baseball anymore. A-Rod is a fantastic hitter, there's no doubt, but noone has ever claimed he's the best hitter, or even the best right handed hitter in baseball. He was the best player in baseball because he was such a fantastic hitter, while also playing excellent defense at a super premium defensive position. becuase of Yankee stupidity, A-Rod will no longer be playing short stop, but instead will be asked to learn third base. Where he'll be a superstar no doubt, a perrenial MVP candidate, but he simply will not be the unquestioned best player in the game anymore. In fact, just to name one, i see very little chance that A-Rod is a more valuable all around player then Jim Edmonds, if Jim is healthy for 2004. Edmonds had a higher OPS in 2003 then Rodriguez, and he plays a gold glove center field, as opposed to Rodriguez, who used to play a gold glove short, but now will play a decent (at best, for now) third base.

None of this is to say that A-Rod isn't a fantastic player (he is), or that this move doesn't make the Yankees a better team ( it does). Just that it's not nearly as drastic a change as most people are making it out to be. The Yankees are not guarenteed to win the World Series, or even make the playoffs. The AL East is just as much of a toss up today as it was two days ago.

P.S. The Yankees payroll is now an astounding 190 million, not counting Gabe cross, who is likely to get at least 2 million in arbitration. Is there any chance they don't top 200 this season?

2004-02-11T09:26:00.000-05:00

The GMs of the NHL passed recomendations today on ideas to improve the on ice product of the league. The major changes are as follows:

1) Goalie pad width reduced from 12 in. to 10 in, the pre 1990 limit
2) Goalies can no longer play the puck behind the goal line
3) The net will be moved back 3 ft towards the end boards, to 10 ft, the pre 1990 distance. The blue line will also be moved 3 ft, to keep the offensive zone the same size. This will increase the neutral zone from 54 feet to 60 feet.
4) The tag up rule is back. This allows attack players to touch up at the blue line and re enter the zone on a delayed offsides call.

Before i discuss the actual changes that are being proposed, i'd like to talk a little bit about the idea that NHL needs changing. Where have these guys been when there teams have been playing? I can't tell you how many great hockey games i've seen this season. Tonight's Isles-Avalanche game was amazing. I was on the edge of my seat for the last 10 minute of the 3rd and all of overtime. I saw half a dozen jaw dropping saves. Oh yeah, the game ended in a 1-1 tie. Exciting hockey isn't about goals, it's about passion. Plain and simple, if the players are into it, hockey is amazing, no matter what the score. It's when they're tired, or un motivated that you see the boring games. My evidence? The Stanley Cup Playoffs. The run for the cup is the best post season of any sport, period. And please remmeber that that statement comes from someone whose loved basbeall since age 5. If you've ever watched your favorite team play in triple overtime, you know what i'm talking about. It's all about the play of the game, not how many pucks actually get through the net. How is a beautiful play that ends in a goal really any better then a great play followed by an equally brilliant save? That said, you don't get fantastic games like that every night, and usually when you do, they're not a 1-1 tie. My point though, is that the goal here should be to try and get that level of play every night, not trying to generate excitement by putting more pucks in the net.

To that end, there are two things i think could greatly improve the game without any signifant changes to the on ice game.

Shorten the schedule

I love hockey, i love watching every Islanders game, and as a fan i'm not thrilled about less oppurtunities to watch them every year. But 82 games is too much. There are too many games where the teams are just exhausted. In football, the only other major contact sport, they play once a week. Hockey players play 3-4 games a week. Guys are injured, sore and just plain tired. I'm not suggesting we get crazy and go back to 60 games, but how about 70? That will give the players an extra day off every other week, and should help to keep the better rested. And as a fan, i'd rather see 70 games where the players are well rested then 82 when they're exhausted for 25 of them. The problem with this is that the owners would oppose the loss in revenue. The simple solution to that would be to cut player's salaries by the same percent as the schedule. Then the lower revenues would be offset by lower costs. Of course the problem with that is that the players union would almost certainly have strong objections.

New, um.. or old, i suppose, playoff seedings

This is an idea i haven't heard yet. There's been talk of eliminating inter conference play, in an attempt to reduce the travel and fatigue that goes with it. But i'm just not buying that idea. For one, it's not a fancy hotel room, but these charter planes the teams take aren't exactly you and i flying coach either. And whatever help it might give, it would give substantially more to the Eastern Conference then the West. In the East almost every team is on the east coast, or close enough that the difference by flight is meaningless. Out west, teams are spread from Phoenix to St Louis to Calgary. And that's not even mentioning Nashville and Columbus. So instead of seperating the conferences, let's get rid of them entirely, for playoff purposes. Remove the division winner/ "wild card system" and go back to the old system where teams are ranked based simply on points. And i don't just mean going back to conferences ranked 1-8. Let's rank them 1-16 Don't eliminate the divisions or the unbalanced schedule, they're good for regional rivalries and the divisional championship banners are good for pride, but don't award top seeds to the division winners either. I know it's become the accepted way of doing things in pro sports, but it's inherently unfair, as "wild card" teams with better records often get seeded lower then division winners who faced inferior competition. Case in point, Tampa Bay, they are 6th in points in the east, but currently stand as the 3rd seed. It also decreases the competitive level in some games by lowering the number of contests in which teams are fighting for playoff position. Can you imagine if it were simply 1-16? Every night of the season's second half would feature multiple games of teams in direct competition for a playoff spot or seed. Just think about the scramble in the final two weeks as instead of 3 or 4 position battles playing out, there are a dozen. Five team battles for the final playoff spot. It would be great! This would be a fantastic way to inject more passion into the game.

That's how i would have gone about "fixing" the game, but hey, i'm not an NHL GM. We're beyond theory at this point, so let's talk about what they actually did.

1) Goalie pad width reduced from 12 in. to 10 in, the pre 1990 limit

I've got no objections to this. There's no doubt that goalies today take up more space in goal then ever before. Shooters have less to shoot at, and that's a big reason for the reduction in scoring. I don't think this will make a huge difference, but it will definatley generate a few extra goals. More then anything else, i think this will seperate the truly great goaltenders even more from the rest of the pack ( anyone looked at how closely bunched goalie stats are in the NHL these days?).

2) Goalies can no longer play the puck behind the goal line

Ok, this one is just plain stupid. This is a direct result of guys like the two Martin BRodeur and Marty Turco, who handle the stick exceptionally well, and will often play the puck back out of the zone after a dump. It's like having a third defenseman on the ice is the term being slung around. To which i answer. So what? Deal with it. This is a part of the game. Not allowing the goalie to play the puck behind the goal line isn't just tinkering with some things, it's changing a very basic part of it. There stickhandling ability is part of what makes Turco, Brodeur and goalies like them so good. A goalies job is to keep pucks from getting in the net. Anything he can do to do that short of penalties is fair game. This isn't wearing huge pads to limit shooters space, it's a legitimate skill, and it's unfair, and completely unreasonable to tell goalies they can't go play the puck. Here's a thought. Instead of making it illegal for goalies to paly the puck behind the line, how about we come up with ways to discourage all the dump and chase play that constantly puts the puck behind the line?

3) The net will be moved back 3 ft towards the end boards, to 10 ft, the pre 1990 distance. The blue line will also be moved 3 ft, to keep the offensive zone the same size. This will increase the neutral zone from 54 feet to 60 feet.

This one i like. There's no need for 13 feet of space between the net and the boards. I know the players are bigger, but ten feet of ice is plenty. And the real advantage here is the increase in the neutral zone, which should give players a little more space to work with. More space means more room to use their skill. That means more exciting play for all of us. The GM's did a real good job on this one.

4) The tag up rule is back.

Another good decision. This will eliminate alot of whistles, and keep the game flowing more. And hopefully it will encourage more agressive forechecking. That's a plus simply if it means we see less of the trap.

If it weren't for the goalie rule, this would be a great job by the GMs. Unfortunately the sheer stupidity of not allowing goaltenders to play the puck behind the net offsets alot of the good they did with the return of the tag up rule and the moving back of the nets. But then i suppose any time a group of sports executive have one of these meetings and three of the four are good suggestions, it should be considered a success.

As i wrote earlier, i don't believe that a lack of scoring is the reason for the boring games you see in the NHL. I think it's got more to do with fatigue and lack of motivation in some games. But if they are deadset against shortening the schedule (and i doubt my other idea has even been discussed), then i can understand the desire to increase offense in the league. The problem here is that i think the NHL has confused offense with goal totals. It's not goals that make offense exciting, its the speed and skill of the plays. Generating a couple of extra goals by penalizing the goaltenders does nothing. Generating a couple of extra goals by helping forwards would improve the on-ice game a great deal more. There are a few things that could be done to open up the game.

1) Legalize the two line pass

What does this rule do besides limiting long down ice break out passes, one of the most beautiful and exciting plays in all of hockey? This isn't youth hockey, noone is going to hang out at center ice waiting for a break away. And if they do, i'm sure the other team will be more then happy to take advantage of the pseudo power play they're given. This would increase break outs, generating some extra offense, and it would showcase the amazing skill level of some of the league's slick puck moving defenseman to read the ice and make stunning passes that shouldn't be possible.

2) Tighten up on stick/obstruction/interference pentalties

The NHL says it's going to do this every year and never actually do it. It's like baseball with the strike zone but it's been going on a lot longer. Start calling hooking, slashing, obstruction, interference, etc. Don't just call the bad ones, call them every time a player is starting a rush and he is hindered by a stick hooking him from behind, or slashing at his hands. How did this ever become accepted? I understand that this is hockey, the sport where you get into a literal fight in the middle of the game and are back on the ice 5 minutes later, and that things like this are much more accepted then in other sports, but you've still gotta play the puck when using your stick. You can't just hack and hook guys and not get penalized for it so long as you only do a little of it. It's part of the game you say, that's the way hockey is. Sorry, not buying it. Hockey, the rough physical part of it, is about checking, and battle in front of the crease, and in the corners. It's not about dealing with illegal stickwork. It is absolutely not part of the game, it's things that have become commonly accepted even though they are clearly against the rules. That's how bad it's gotten, when a player has a step and he's slowed by a stick hooked around his mid section it's not only accepted, but expected. More then anything else, simply letting the skilled players play without constant illegal stick and obstruction penalties would add excitment and offense to the game.

3. Allow larger curves to stick blades

I played hockey for a number of years, and i've experienced the difference between small curves and large curves first hand. I want to see what some of these guys can do with a euro curves.

4. Widen the ice surface

This one is a bit radical, but i'd be in favor of widening the ice surface. All the way to international size would be fine, but even smaller increments would help. As i mentioned earlier, anything that creates more space for players to work is good. There is an amazing amount of speed in skill in the NHL. Speed, skill, and space equals exciting, beautiful hockey, and happy fans. The physical, defensive players would still be a vital role to every team, and in every game, but it would keep them from dominating play in what's becoming a very crowded rink with how big and fast today's players are. There's no question the game was more open in the past, and that the skilled players had more open ice to work with.

2004-02-03T07:20:00.000-05:00

Another tidbit on Peterson i came across.

"Braden Looper reportedly is delighted with the brief time he got to work with Rick Peterson and has apparently added a couple of extra MPH to his fastball by implementing Peterson's techniques."

Pitchers and catchers haven't even reported yet, and Peterson has added a couple MPH to our closer's fastball? You gotta be kidding me. Seriously, how much have Kazmir's chances of success gone up?

2004-02-03T07:17:00.000-05:00

This might, just might, have been the most beautiful thing i've ever read.

"Most of the candidates for the open fifth slot in the Mets' rotation remained in camp working with coaches Rick Waits and Randy Niemann on perfecting the drills that are the first step in Rick Peterson's new training regimen."

After pausing to reflect on whether or not it was a problem that the hiring of a new pitching coach by a baseball team that I have no actual involvement with ranks as one of the major events of my life over the past few months (i decided it wasn't, as if there was ever any doubt), it finally hit me that Rick Peterson is actually our pitching coach. I wonder how much Scott Kazmir's chance of success went up based simply on this alone.

2004-01-29T08:12:00.000-05:00

Talks between Shane Spencer and the Mets are said to be progressing, and a deal appears to be imminent As i discussed a couple of days ago, Spencer should provide a capable right handed half of a platoon in RF.

Jamie Cerda was traded to the Royals for RHP Shawn Sedlacek, a player whose numbers are so un impressive i'm not even going to bother discussing them. This deal was made to free up a spot on the roster for Todd Zeile. And in classic Mets fashion, the Mets gave away a young player of some value, for nothing in return. In this case, a 25 year old left hander with a career minor league ERA of 0.81 That right, 0.81, in 210 innings. That's lowered somewhat by his absolute dominance of the New York Penn League (47 innings, zero earned runs), but he was exceptional through out his minor league career. His highest ERA was 2.27 in hitter friendly Binghamton, and in two stints at AAA he had ERA's of 0.43 and 1.67. Cerda's 25, tore through the minors, and is a real good bet to be an above average major league reliever, if not an ace. And this is the guy who we drop off the roster to create room for Zeile? Even if management won't let us outright release Cedeno, were there no better options? How about Joe McEwing, or Timo Perez? They're more deserving of roster spots then Cerda? *sigh*

Some thoughts from around the hockey world...

Eric Lindros is blessed with all the skills a hockey player could wish for. When he's on he's one of the few skaters who can dominate an NHL game. However, one thing that he was not blessed with was a strong skull, at least as hockey players go. Lindros suffered his eigth (official) concussion last night in the Rangers 2-1 loss to the Capitals. Half way through the second period, Lindros was carrying the puck along the left wing boards. He put his head down for a moment and was hit hard by Caps defenseman Jason Doig. By all accounts, including mine, it was a clean, legal hit. Lindros played two shifts after the shot, seperated by a fighting major incurred when he went after Doig. He then reported to coach/GM Glen Sather that he was seeing stars and white flashes, before heading to the locker room. It is not known how long he'll be out. Though the concussion was said to be "mild" that's a very relative term when dealing with head injuries, especially for a player with a long track record of them. Though i have little doubt Lindros will return to the ice again, you have to start wondering if all the concussions have him pondering retirement. After eight concussions, every time Lindros heads into the boards with his head down, he's risking a head injury that could linger the rest of his life.

After being robbed of a win and the two points that come with it by two badly blown calls at the end of tuesday's matchup vs the Bruins, the Isles head into Boston tonight hungry for a victory. A win would put the Islanders just three points back of the Bruins for 6th in the eastern conference, with a game in hand. It could also put the Islanders into a tie with the Montreal Canadiens for 7th, if the Candiens lose to Minnesota. The Isles hold a game in hand over the Habs as well.

Speaking of my Islanders, it's time to start taking notice of Trent Hunter. First among rookies in goals(18), and second in points(34), Hunter is a serious candidate for the Calder Trophy. He is on pace for 30 goals, and 54 points in his first full season, and is a very strong +14 right now. Hunter has been, without a doubt, the Islanders best player since December. Besides his obvious offensive skill, Hunter works exceptionally hard, is becoming better and better on defense, and finishes his checks all over the ice. he is an absolute mountain when soemone is trying to move him off the puck, and to quote someone from the Islanders list-serv i belong to, it's gotten to the point that when an Islander blocks a shot, i just assume it's Hunter. The best part is that at only 23 years of age, and still adjusting to the NHL, Hunter only stands to get better. He could be a force on the Island for years to come.

Dany Heatley returned to the ice yesterday for the first time since the car accident that tragically claimed the life of friend and teammate Daniel Snyder and left Heatley seriously injured. What's so amazing about this is that Heatley had surgery to repair two torn knee ligaments, both his ACL and MCL , less then four months ago. Four months! Players in other sports typically miss an entire year with injuries of this nature.

The Atlanta Thrashers will be serious contenders within two years. Coming into the season, the Thrasher's had perhaps the most promising young skater in hockey. The afore mentioned Dany Heatley, fresh off a 41 goal, 89 point season at age 22. Then the tragic car accident, and Atlanta was without it's young superstar. No longer the team with the most prized young skater in the NHL. Right? Meet Ilya Kovalchuk. At 20 years old, Kovalchuk is in his third NHL season. At age 18 he scored 29 goals and 51 points, and last year at age 19 he put up 38 goals and 67 points. This year, he is third in the league in goals (26) and fifth in points (56). Once 26 year old center Marc Savard (15 goals, 41 points in 32 games) is healthy, Atlanta will have one of, if not the most dangerous line in hockey. And the old man of the three will be first entering his prime.

Another guy who needs to be mentioned in any discussion of the most talented young skater in hockey is Columbus's Rick Nash. Absorb this one for a second. At 19 years of age, Rick Nash currently leads the NHL in goals scored with 31, 4 more then Markus Naslund. Most nineteen year olds are still adjusting to life in college. Rick Nash is playing with the elite hockey players in the world, and outscoring all of them.

The fight for the top playoff spot in the east is particularly furious this year with big four, Toronto, New Jersey, Ottawa, and Toronto all within 3 points of each other. While we're on the topic of the Eastern Conference playoffs, the best spot ( excluding division winners) is once again shaping up to be #6. Toronto and Ottawa, and Philadelphia and New Jersey play in the same divisions. The winners of those two battles for division titles will in all likelihood be the top two seeds, and play the 7th and 8th seeds, respectively. Then will come the winner of the Southeast Division, likely Tampa Bay, with the no 3 seed, who will open against no 6. If one of the lower teams ( Isles, Montreal, Boston) manages to slip into the fifth spot, it would leave them in the very unhappy position of playing one of the big four who lost their division race. It doesn't really matter how any of it shakes out. Barring any dramatic turn around the winner of the southeast will be the no 3 seed. So no matter how else the rest of the top 4 teams fall, team 6 is going to get a considerably weaker opponent then the fifth seed.

2004-01-27T01:47:00.000-05:00

It occurs to me that even though there isn't much baseball news, there is a ton of hockey news with the season in full gear, and the push for the playoffs beginning to intensify. I mentioned yesterday that hockey is actually my favorite sport. Baseball holds something of a special place in my heart, because it played a significant part in my childhood. The first thing in life I remember having a true love for was baseball and the New York Mets. It's probably for this reason, as well as the fact that baseball best lends itself to daily discussion that I run a Mets Blog, and not an Islanders Blog. By 13 though, I had given up playing baseball in favor of hockey, and it remains my favorite sport to this day. What is the point of this you ask? I've come to the decision that in the interest of keeping this blog frequently updated till baseball begins again, I'm going to start talking about hockey. Have no fear, this is a Mets bloc and will continue to be so. But for the next few weeks, most of my content will probably focus on hockey, and the Islanders. I invite those of you who enjoy the sport as much as I do to drop by and here my take on the happenings in hockey land. For those of you aren't fond of the frozen sport, don't worry, I'll be sure to get the Mets in here and there, and of course once spring training begins, I'll be back to full time baseball postings

So let's talk about hockey.

See here how everything
Lead up to this day
And it's just like any other day
That's ever been

"Black Peter" Rober Hunter / Jerry Garcia

After years of trying, the Rangers have finally aquired there Holy Grail. Jaromir Jagr is in Manhattan. Unfortunately for the Rangers and their fans, they aren't going to get any better. As usual, the Rangers could not resist going for the big name, instead of addressing, get this, their team's needs. As of this writing the Rangers average 2.66 goal per game asnd fifth best in the eastern conference behind ( in order) Ottawa, NY Islanders, Toronto, and Philadelphia. The blueshirts score plenty of goals, they just give up even more. At 2.88 goals against, the Rangers rank 26th out of the 30 NHL teams. They lack any sense of team defense and discipline, don't play with enough of a physical presence, and with the collapse of Mike Dunham don't have a playoff, or even near playoff caliber goaltender. The Rangers just keep adding talent without any concept of building a team. Not to mention that Jagr, good as he is, is clearly in decline.

Jaromir Jagr Point per Game

98-99 1.568
99-00 1.524
00-01 1.074
01-02 1.144
02-03 1.026
03-04 1.000

Goal per Game

99-00 .666
00-01 .641
01-02 .449
02-03 .480
03-04 .354

Yes, I'm an Islanders fan, and i hate the Rangers. Hate actually isn't a strong enough word. I despise the Rangers. My hate for the Braves and the Yankees is a fond admiration compared to my feeling on the Rangers. But this really is just getting sad. With the addition of Jagr, the Rangers estimated payroll this year is an astonishing 91 million dollars. For some reference the rest of the top 5 are Detroit at ~ 77 million, Dallas at ~67 million, the Flyers at ~ 65 million, and Toronto which spends ~ 62 million on it's players. The average NHL team payroll is ~44 million, with about half the league betwwen 30-45 million. The Rangers are the Yankees of hockey, except they suck. They outspend everyone, aquire big name after big name, but haven't made the playoffs in 7 years.

The future isn't looking particularly bright either, with a new CBA looming that will likely set a very restrictive soft cap somewhere between 35-40 million. Good luck to the rangers try to build a team. With Jagr figuring in at 11 million aav (annual average value) the rangers now have commitments to eight players for next season totaling over 38 million dollars. They're basically at the expected new cap, and they've got 1/3 of a team.

A 50-1 shot

Aaron Gleeman wrote recently about the San Diego Padres at 50-1 to win the world series being a real good 50-1 shot. Keeping in mind of course, that 50 to 1 shots are exactly that, longshots. To quote Aaron "When you're looking for a sleeper team to come out of nowhere and win the World Series and you're looking for 50-to-1 odds, you're not going to find many great teams to pick from."

That got me wondering to what the odds were for this years Stanley Cup.

I don't know what the official Vegas odds are, but I ran a metacrawler search for "stanley cup odds" and browsing through the first few matches I got from major sports betting sites, two things caught my attention.

San Jose Sharks 40-1
New York Islanders 50-1

Odds differed from site to site, and the one listing San Jose at 40-1 claimed to be official Vegas odds.

I gotta tell you folks, if you're looking for a good long shot, this is as about as good as your going to find. Maybe I'm a bit biased with the Islanders pick, but the fact is that no team in the NHL playoffs should ever be a 50-1 shot. Are the Islanders assured of a playoff spot yet? Far from it. But as of this moment the Islanders have a 5 point lead for the final playoff spot, and are just 5 points behind 6th place Boston, with a game in hand and one upcoming vs the Bruins. Especially in the NHL, any team in the big dance has a shot. Beyond that, there's the talent factor. Despite their lackluster effort so far this year (and yes, I know I'm biased) the Islanders rank as among the more talented teams in the east when Yashin and Parrish return to the ice. Ok, this is hockey, and not all these guys are house hold names, but for those who don't closely follow the sport, bear with me.

Line 1: Oleg Kvasha / Alexi Yashin / Mariusz Czerkawski
Line 2: Jason Blake / Michael Peca / Mark Parrish
Line 3: Shaun Bates / Dave Scatchard / Trent Hunter
Line 4: Three of Arron Asham / Justin Papineu / Cliff Ronning / Mattias Weinhandl

Are any of those lines truly scary? No, unless Yashin and Czerkawski start lighting it up again. But the top three are all very good, and the fourth is solid. Both the second and third line are solid two way lines. With Eric Manlow, and prospects Justin Mapletoft and Sean Bergenheim also able to step in capably, plus enforcer Eric Godard available when the need arises, the Islanders can roll four lines very effectively once Yashin and Parrish return.

Defense:

Adrian Aucion
Janne Niinimaa
Roman Hamrlik
Kenny Jonsson
Radek Martinek
Eric Cairns
Sven Butenschon

Using the top four in any combination, the Isles boast two all star level defensive pairings. Martinek is a talented prospect, and Eric Cairns and Sven Butenschon provide good depth as 6th and 7th defenders. This is perhaps the deepest and most talented defensive corps in the league. Adrian Aucoin has emerged as a candidate for the Norris Trophy, given to the NHL's best defenseman. He is 5th in the NHL in average ice time, at 26:15, though he may as well be tied for fourth, just one second behind Sergei Gonchar with 26:16. And Aucoin is tied for 1st in the NHL in +/- rating, with an exceptional +25.

Rick DiPietro is emerging as a No. 1 goalie, capable of shutting down opponents, and Garth Snow is a capable veteran back up, who played very well down the stretch last year, and has a great deal of playoff experience.

None of this is to say that the Islanders are likely to win the Cup. Merely that they are capable of it,as any team that gets into the NHL playoffs are, and that their performance to this point has set the odds disproportionately high to the Islanders talent level.

Then there's San Jose. I don't know how this team is listed at 40-1, and i suspect that will change very soon. As of this writing, the Sharks are 23-12-11-4 for 61 points, 4th best in the Wester Conference, and best in their division by 6 points. That makes them the 3rd seed as of right now, and they are well within striking distance of the first and second spots. 40-1 for a team that's likely to have home ice for at least the first round. Again, not in the NHL, no matter how much more talnted Colorado and Detroit may seem. Especially when the Sharks have Evgeni Nabakok in goal. Last year's Stanley Cup teams, as is common in hockey, were both carried by exceptional goaltending.

Do i think that either the Islanders or Sharks will win the Cup? No, if i had to choose right now, I'd probably pick Ottawa. But these are long shots, and you've got two real good teams listed at 40-1 and 50-1. Your chances of returning $800-$-1000 on a $20 bet are a hell of a lot higher then they usually are.

2004-01-25T02:44:00.000-05:00

I promise, i'm alive. There's just not a whole lot to talk about right now. Too far from the Series for anything truly interesting (unless you consider Karim Garcia interesting), too far from the season's start to start writing about next year. If this blog were focused on all the major leagues, i'm sure i could come up with at least 3-4 stories a week, even now. But it's not, it's a Mets Blog, and while i obviously love baseball, and maintain an interest in what every other team is doing, i honestly don't care enough whether Pudge signs with the Tigers to start writing lengthy articles about it. And if i'm not going to write anything of substance, i don't see the point in bothering, since noone reading this site needs me to tell them the Tigers offered Pudge a deal for 4yrs/40m. And to be perfectly honest, my free time available to devote to sports right now is mostly focused on hockey, which is actually my favorite sport, and my beloved Islanders. Once spring training begins, which is actually pretty soon, my plan is to return to daily/semi-daily posting about the Amazins. My plan is to start with a season preview when pitchers and catchers report. Until then, i'll try and get something up at least once a week.

So in the interest of keeping up though, i'll try to make an article of what little is going on with the Mets.

Mets lose out on Guerrero, sign Karim Garcia for 1yr/800k.

After the failed pursuit of Guerrero, Karim Garcia is something of a letdown, to say the least. 5 yrs/70m seems like something of a bargain for Vlad given some of the contracts handed out in recent years. That said, i suppose i understand the apprehension at giving a player who missed 3 months with back problems last year 70 million in guarenteed money. There wasn't much of a market for Guerrero, and i think that says something, given how little money he wound up signing for. Obviously we weren't the only ones concerned. I think the chances are pretty good that Vlad will stay relatively healthy in his Angels contract, and will continue to put up monster numbers. If the back problem re occur however, the Angels are stuck with what's still a very large contract. Maybe i'm letting the Mets take an easy excuse here because of the injury. Because except for that one stint on the DL, Vlad is exactly the type of player that you do break the bank on. But the fact is that stint on the DL happened, and it was three months long. Everybody assumed Junior Griffey would be a force for years to come after he returned from the first of his injuries. It hasn't worked out that way, and Cincinatti has spent two years in the very un pleasent situation of trying to trade him, while still keeping him happy, on the chance he ever returns to his former greatness. Is it a cop out? Well, maybe, but i'm willing to give the Mets a pass on this one, because the risk level is a bit on the high side for 14 million a year. Even with Vlad our chances of making a run at the playoffs this year were pretty slim unless everything went right. I'm as dissapointed as everyone else about not having him in right field next year, but there will be plenty of stars available in the next couple of years that we can use that money on at a time when we are ready to compete.

So i give the Mets a pass on the failed pursuit of Guerrero. I'm not sure Vlad ever had any interest or intention of playing in New York anyway. But please excuse me if i don't cover up my yawn in regards to the Karim Garcia signing. Sure, it's 1 yr/800k, so who cares right? And i suppose that's true, but Karim Garcia? He of the career .282 OBP?

Karim Garcia

Career: 243/282/432 with 67/280 BB/K and 104 xbh (56 HR) in 1205 AB

Three Year Splits:

237/270/466 with 6/37 and 14 xbh (8 HR) in 131 AB vs LHP
297/327/528 with 17/69 and 35 xbh (24 HR) in 360 ab vs RHP

He actually hits righties pretty well. Or he has in limited at bats over a three year span. His career split vs RHP of 241/279/425 is somewhat less impressive. If he can duplicate the last three years in a platoon role, he'd actually be a pretty effective player, despite the low OBP. Problem is, he strikes me as veryunlikely to actually duplicate that power playing semi-daily. Which will make him pretty similar to this player,

290/325/420 with 47/76 BB/K and 77 xbh (17 HR) in 910 AB vs RHP (2001-2003

but with a little extra pop. And that player is Timo Perez. And not signifigantly better then this player,

281/335/370 with 89/162 and 66 xbh (11 HR) in 1112 AB vs RHP (2001-2003)

That player is Rorger Cedeno. Not that i'm trying to say that either Cedeno or Timo is a good option for right field, but it seems to me that if the Mets were trying to find a platoon partner, they went looking for the wrong half first.

Thankfully, it seems like they realize this.

Mets make offer to Shane Spencer

If we were looking for an ex Yankee to platoon in right, this was, and still is our guy.

282/345/456 with 32/54 and 29 xbh (12 HR) in 305 AB vs LHP (2001-2003)

Spencer's numbers hold up to scrutiny over the course of his career. (Granted, it's not a drastically larger sample size).

303/351/520 with 42/97 and 56 xbh (27 HR) in 508 AB vs LHP

And as opposed to say, Karim Garcia, we don't already have two guys on the team who can fill the role he would. I haven't heard what we offered him, or any rumors as to whether he'll accept it, but i'd assume it's 1 yr and less then a million. At that price, i'd welcome Spencer as a capable half of a right field platoon.

Mets mull fifth starter options

To which i ask, why exactly? Aaron Heilman, Jeremy Griffiths, and Grant Roberts, just to name a few. There are plenty of options in the organization already that could fill this whole. I wouldn't have been so opposed to the signing of "Ravishing" Rick Reed, who up until last year was still a very effective pitcher, mostly because he always pitched extremely well at Shea, and so was a pretty good bet to give us at least 90-100 real effective innings. Even that wouldn't have made a whole lot of sense though. Why are we busy trying to add an extra win or two to this team when we have very little chance to compete this year anyway? If Mike Piazza and Cliff Floyd remain healthy for the entire year, Phillips and Reyes maintain last year's level of production, or improve, Kaz Matsui makes a succesful adjustment to the majors, Tom Glavine rebounds, Senator Al pitches like he did in the second half, Steve Traschel continues to defy declining indicators, and Jae Weong Seo pitches effectively, then yes, you find an effective fifth starter and maybe the team makes a run at the playoffs. But let's be realistic, even if most of those things happen, .500 is a succesful year for this team. So why not use the time letting Peterson work with whoever he thinks is the best option for the fifth starter amongst the young players in our organization.

That's my take on what's going on right now. Stay tuned for further updates as news comes along, and back to regular postings as spring training gets under way.

2004-01-10T07:49:00.000-05:00

Dare to Dream

The Mets have officially made an offer to Vlad. They would not comment on the numbers, but reports have state that after negotiating with Guerrero's agent Fern Cuza last night, the Mets have increased there initial 3yr / 30 million dollar offer to 3 yrs / 30 million guarenteed, with the possibility for 5 yrs / 70 million, based on easily reachable playing time based incentives. If Vlad reaches the incentive mark, reportedly 400 AB, in any season he triggers a 4 million dollar bonus, bringing the total possible value of the 3 year offer to 42 million. If he reaches the incentive mark in the final year, 2006, then Vlad can exercise a ten million dollar option for 2007. If he reaches the mark in 2007, it triggers another 4 million dollar bonus, and an option for a fifth year at another 10 million guarenteed, plus 4 for playing time.

Since it's hard to know specifics, and none of this information is official, let's call it 3 for 30 guarenteed with the potential of 5 for 70 based on very reachable playing time bonuses. I think it might take a bit more guarenteed money, but that's a real good starting point.

It certainly makes sense for us. Vlad was extremely durable before the back problem (161,159,154,160,159 games the previous five years), and he's an elite player. 3 yrs and around 30 million guarenteed is extremely low risk given someone of his talents. If he's healthy, he's a real good bet to be one of the handful of best all around players in the majors, and one of the five or ten best hitters. For that i'll be more then happy to pay him 3/42 or 5/70.

Of course, it only makes sense for Vlad if staying in the NL in a city with a dominican population is really as important as he says. He'd be passing up 30 or more million in guarenteed money from Baltimore. But hey, it does happen. He apparently is less then thrilled with the idea of playing in Baltimore, or he would've signed there by now, being clearly the best offer on the table. 30 million dollars is a hell of a lot of money, and the incentives for 5/70 will presumably be very reachable, and based on nothing but his health. It's actually pretty likely that Vlad, if he exercised the final two years, would collect all, or nearly all of the 70 million possible. If the levels are really as low as rumored, he could go on the DL for a month and sitll reach them in any given season. He missed 7 weeks last year and still totaled just under 400 AB. And if he's healthy, he can always play the 3 years for 42 million, and then re enter the market at 30 to seek a bigger deal.

If nothing else, it makes us real players. 3 for 30 by itself is almost insulting given the 5/65 offer from the orioles. but 3/30 which can very easily become 3/42 and free agency at 30, or 5/70 is a very real, very competitive offer given that we seem to hold all the intangibles over Baltimore.We're in the National League. I've actually seen some questions as to why this would matter to him. The pitchers of course. I'm not sure how big of a deal that really is, i suppose it depends on the player. Any good hitter can make the adjustment of course, but Vlad strikes me as a "comfort" guy. He knows the NL pitchers, and style of play, he's thrived in the NL, and doesn't want to rock the boat. You do hear this out of lots of players, sometimes even to the point of a guy taking less money because he was intent on staying in one league or another. So apparently it's real. Second, New York's Dominican population is considerably larger then Baltimore's. Baltimore does have more everyday players from Latin America with Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora, and Luis Matos, but no Dominican players. The Mets of course, have rising Dominican star Jose Reyes. Timo Perez is also from the Dominican Republic. So it seems like we suit Vlad's preferences a great deal better then Baltimore does. Forget about changing league's, he wouldn't even have to change divisions. And he'd be playing in the city with the largest Dominican population in the country. That's understating it actually. (Yes, i actually looked this up) It's not just the largest Dominican population in the country. As of the 2000 census, 59.5% of all Dominicans in the country lived in New York. The second largest population? New Jersey, at 13.4%. that's 64% of the Dominican population in this country, or about 560,000 people. That's roughly 6.5% of the population of the Dominican Republic itself. Vlad's not going to get any closer to home then New York. Is Baltimore's offer better? Of course. But if you were a 27 yr old from the Dominican Republic, who speaks limited English, and who is already rich, wouldn't you consider risking the extra guarenteed money to play in the city with the largest Dominican population outside of the Dominican Republic? It's not like he can't live on the 30 million.

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up, but it's proving difficult, since we seem like real players in this now. And because it seems like Vlad is less then thrilled with the idea of playing in Maryland. Chances are this will wind up in all of us being dissapointed, but it's hard not to dream.

2003-12-30T23:27:00.000-05:00

The myth of Zito

There's a thought going around on Barry Zito, a myth really, because it is not substantiated by any evidence. The myth goes as follows; Barry Zito is not as good a pitcher as his reputation. He has been helped by his defense, his home park, and his relation to Mulder and Hudson. Simply put, Zito is a good pitcher, who everyone thinks is great because he's gotten lucky, and been surrounded by things that make him look so. Furthermore, Barry Zito has been in decline for two years now.

This is what they say anyway, led by articles on the subject from two very respected writers, Joe Sheehan, and Rob Neyer. I've got great respect for both Mr. Sheehan and Mr. Neyer, and so it pains me to say this, but i think both of them need to step back from the calculator for a minute, and start actually looking at the game being played, and everything that goes into it, not just strike out rates, and K/BB ratios. Becuase while strikeout rates, and K/BB ratios may be important, they are not everything. They are good indicators of success or failure. They do not determine it by themselves. Just because Zito's K rate has been in decline, it does not detract fro mthe phenomenal numbers he has put up. Not to mention, that Zito has the best career K rate of Oakland's "big three". So if Zito K/9 and K/BB leave Mr Sheehan and Mr Neyer doubting his greatness, i would love to hear what they think of his two counterparts. And since both articles leave one with the impression that they are indeed convinced of the greatness of Mulder and Hudson, just not Zito, i'd love to hear how they rationalize that, given Zito has the best K/9 of the three, precisely the area in which Sheehan and Neyer argue he is lacking. Enough of my rambling though, see for yourself that Barry Zito is without doubt the best of Oakland's young aces.

Career ERA

1. Zito: 3.12
2. Hudson: 3.26
3. Mulder: 3.77

Career ERA +

1. Zito: 143
2. Hudson: 139
3. Mulder: 119

Career WHIP

1. Zito: 1.18
2. Hudson: 1.21
3. Mulder: 1.26

Career K/9

1. Zito: 7.16
2. Hudson: 6.81
3. Mulder: 6.11

Career K/BB

1. Mulder: 2.46
2. Hudson: 2.36
3. Zito: 2.10

Career H/9

1. Zito: 7.22
2. Hudson: 8.04
3. Mulder: 8.88

Career HR/9

1. Hudson: .74
2. Zito: .79
3. Mulder: .86

( Over 200 innings, the difference betwwen Hudson and Zito is about 1 home run. Between Zito and Mulder, about one and a half.)

Career Opponents Avg. against

1. Zito: .219
2. Hudson: .239
3. Mulder: .259

Career Opp OBP against

1. Zito: .295
2. Hudson: .301
3. Mulder: .310

Career Opp SLG% against

1. Zito: .333
2. Hudson: .353
3. Mulder: .391

Career Opp OPS against

1. Zito: .628
2. Hudson: .654
3. Mulder: .701

Career Opp IsoP against

T-1. Zito: 114
T-1. Hudson: 114
3. Mulder: 132

That's every major pitching statistic i can think of. Out of the 12, Zito ranks first in TEN of them. Ten of the twelve folks, that's not arguably better, that is clearly superior . And the difference in HR/9 is almost non existant when applied over 200 innings. So unless in your mind K/BB is the be all, end all of pitching, the only meaningful statistic, it's pretty clear who has been the best pitcher, up to this point. And at 25, he is the youngest of the three.

Let's look at this another way. We'll assign points on these categories, in the style of MVP voting. To make it simple, we'll give 3 points for a 1st, 2 for a 2nd, and 1 for a 3rd.

1. Zito: 33
2. Hudson: 26
3. Mulder: 14

Even if you triple the point value of the two areas in which he is not the best among the three (Hr/9 and K/BB), Zito still comes out on top.

As to the idea that Zito has been in decline for three years ( Sheehan actually claims that 2001 was Zito's best year, not 2002's Cy Young year, and Neyer seems to agree), sure if you live in a different universe from the rest of us. One in which higher ERA's, more hits, and higher opponents numbers is a good thing, and the only thing that matters is how many guys your strike out. Yeah, Zito struck out less guys each of the last two seasons, but in 2002, he gave up two less hits, 13 less earned runs, and walked 2 fewer batters in 15 more innings, then in 2002. His ERA was three quarters fo a run better, and 69% better then the league, compared to 25% better in 2001. This year, he slipped from those gaudy 2002 numbers, but was still better then in 2001. He gave up just two more hits, and two more earned runs in 17 1/3 more innings. His ERA was .19 better, and his ERA+ was 129, only very slightly better then his 125 in 2001, but still better, and in more innings. So it seems that Zito is compensating for his lower strikeout rate in other ways. Perhaps he's gettign lucky, or perhaps not. I suppose it depends on whether or not you believe pitchers can have a meaningful effect on balls put in play. Personally, i think there are too many pitchers out there who have succeeded without great K rates to deny at least the possibility that some pitchers can. And while Zito's K rate has declined, so have his opponents averages.

2001: 230/307/345 (652 OPS) 115 IsoP
2002: 218/286/340 (626 OPS) 112 IsoP
2003: 219/293/324 (616 OPS) 105 IsoP

Is it possible he's getting lucky? Of course. But i don't find it likely. Opponents batting averages held steady, and their IsoP went down again. Actually, opponents IsoP has gone down a little bit every year Zito's pitched in the majors. That's pretty good evidence that Zito isn't just getting lucky. The differences are small, but it's a definite trend, and it's over four years now. Simply put, it looks like Zito is getting better, little by little, at generating less hard hit ( or more poorly hit) balls in play.

This is just a theory, one which i don't have any real evidence to support, but i heard Zito say in an interview last year that he's been relying less and less on his fastball. So more curves and change ups, less fastballs. That sounds like something that could lead to less strikeouts, and more poorly hit balls, doesn't it? Especially with how great that curveball is, perhaps the best left handed curve in baseball. I wish i had some information on what pitches Zito has thrown in what amounts each year, but unfortuantely i don't know anywhere where that's available. It seems very possible to me though, that this could account for at least a part of the decline in his strikeout rate.

Whatever is going on. This is two years in a row in which his K rate and K/BB ratio has gone down, and two straight years he's been better despite it, by compensating in other areas. None of this is to say that we should completely dis regard the declining K rate. More strike outs is always a good thing, and by itself, a declinging K rate is never a good sign. But portraying it as an indicator that Zito has been very lucky, and is a strong candidate to fall off, is unfair, and innaccurate without taking into consideration all the information available. And that information suggests that the drop off in strike outs has been accompanied by less hits and less power allowed. So far, Zito is winning the trade off, and i see no great evidence that he will not continue to, so long as the K rate does not sink to abysmal levels.

2003-12-28T22:11:00.000-05:00

The article on Zito will be up within the next day. this time i mean it

2003-12-23T00:32:00.000-05:00

Some of you might remember my strong criticism of an article Joe Sheehan wrote on Barry Zito last month. If you didn't catch it, you can find both Sheehan's article, and my response here.

Well now it seems Rob Neyer agrees with Sheehan's claims, which still seem absurd to me. I don't have the time to do it right this second, but expect a rather detailed post in the next day or so, arguing that not only is Zito a top of the rotation starter, he's the best of Oakland's "big three". Believe me when i tell you that the numbers back me up.

2003-12-20T03:52:00.000-05:00

When a large star dies, it goes through increasingly violent fusion reactions, until finally the rush of neutrinos produced is so great that it carries the shells surrounding the core outward in a hellacious explosion called a supernova. During the supernova, the core implodes, and without going through the details of the process, a neutron star is formed. If it was originally a star of more then three solar masses then the neutron star eventually collapses into a singularity, and forms a black hole.

You might be wondering what this has to do with the Mets. The answer is nothing really. Except that i'm pretty sure it occured in the center field of Shea Stadium a little over 14 years ago. The day Lenny Dykstra was traded. Unfortuantely i can't tell you what happens whena black hole collapses, but that is exactly what happened in that same spacious center field of Shea Stadium this week. After a decade of incompetence, the Mets have a real center fielder. The Juan Samuel Event Horizon is no more.

Mike Cameron Age:30 Bats: R Throws: R

1999: 256/357/469 with 80/145 BB/K and 64 xbh (21 HR) in 542 AB, 38/50 SB/Att
2000: 267/365/438 with 78/133 BB/K and 51 xbh (19 HR) in 543 AB, 24/31 SB/Att
2001: 267/353/480 with 69/155 BB/K and 60 xbh (25 HR) in 540 AB, 34/39 SB/Att
2002: 239/340/442 with 79/176 BB/K and 56 xbh (25 HR) in 545 AB, 31/29 SB/Att
2003: 253/344/431 with 70/137 BB/K and 54 xbh (18 HR) in 534 AB, 17/24 SB/Att

Willie Mays he is not, but Mike Cameron is consistently above average offensively for a center fielder, providing both power and speed. And that's more then enough for an extremely durable, reliable, and defensively superior center fielder. Would i have preferred Carlos Beltran? Of course. But even in this severaly depressed market, Beltran will command double the 20 million we gave Cameron at the very least, and probably more like 3-4 times that amount. Not that Beltran isn't worth that. But Cameron was available, he's only 30, he's one of the five or six best all around center fielders in the game, and he was very reasonably priced. Look at it this way, if we were going to spend the money on Beltran, we still have most of that left to spend on a star somewhere else, on top of a real good player in center. If you gave me a choice between a) Carlos Beltran, or b) Mike Cameron and 50 million to spend on one of the many aces coming into free agency over the next couple of years, i'll take option B every time. Of course, that is dependant on the Mets actually spending the money that alot of us would have liked to see go to Beltran. Enough speculation though. Let's get back to Cameron. I wont discuss his defense much, because we all know it is deserving of any superlative one could name. Some have actually suggested that Cameron is the best defensive center fielder in the game right now. Even in my now biased opinion, i would still give that honor to Andruw Jones, but Cameron isn't far behind. And those who think he's surpassed Andruw have a case to make, because the numbers support it. Over the last two years, Mike Cameron has gotten to more balls then any other outfielder. And that's while playing next to Ichiro, who gets to a few balls himself. Sufficed to say that Cameron is Tom Glavine's new best friend. So let's talk about his hitting.

2001

Home: 220/310/359 with 21 xbh (7 HR) in 259 AB
Away: 310/392/591 with 39 xbh (18 HR) in 281 AB

Road Differential: +40% Avg, +26% OBP, +102% IsoP

2002

Home: 218/334/370 with 22 xbh (7 HR) in 262 AB
Away: 258/345/509 with 34 xbh (18 HR) in 283 AB

Road Differential: +18% Avg, +3% OBP, +65% IsoP

2003

Home: 235/329/429 with 24 xbh (11 HR) in 247 AB
Away: 268/357/432 with 30 xbh (7 HR) in 287 AB

Road Differential: +14% Avg, +9% OBP, - 15% IsoP

Three Year Averages 2001-2003

Home: 224/324/385 with 67 xbh (25 HR) in 768 AB
Away: 278/364/510 with 103 xbh (43 HR) in 851 AB

Road Differential: +24% Avg, +12% OBP, +44% IsoP

Cameron has quite obviously been hurt a great deal by Safeco Field. Much more so then other Mariners. So it's quite possible that Cameron's claims that he had trouble seeing the ball against Safeco's backgrounds are true, and he will not be hurt as much by pitcher friendly Shea as he was by pitcher friendly Safeco. Whatever the reason or reasons, Cameron is a far better hitter away from the park he used to call home. Some have suggested that he's a candidate for a major break out season by leaving Safeco. I think that's overstating it, because except for 2001, Cameron's road numbers weren't terribly impressive. Even if he manages to perform at Shea just as well as he does on the road, i still think Cameron is unlikely to exceed a .275 Avg and .365 OBP, and that is probably stretching it, because even with his superb 2001 road numbers, his three year road splits barely get to those levels. I'd consider 265/355 a very succesful season for Cameron.

There is one area though, where Cameron could indeed breakout in a big way. His Power. Did i say that other then 2001, his road numbers aren't particularly impressive? Because i meant that his Avg and OBP weren't particulalry impressive. Cameron's got some big time power away from Safeco. 2003 was almost certainly an abberation, and a down year for his power in general, but in 2001 and 2002 Cameron's road IsoP's were staggering. To give you an idea, his .281 road IsoP in 2001 would have placed him in between Carlos Delgado, and Jason Giambi this year, and his 2002 road IsoP of .251 would place him between Mike Lowell and Jeromy Burnitz (who finished with 31 HR if you hadn't noticed). That's some pretty good company. Even in the not so friendly confines of Shea, it would not surprise me at all to see Cameron have his first 30 HR season.

Which brings me to this question. If Mike Cameron hits somewhere in the area i've talked about, say 265/355 with 30+ HR, will there be any signifigant difference between him and Andruw Jones? They'd be almost exactly the same player. Superb defense, big time power, great durability, and speed (even though Andruw no longer steals bases). But problems making contact, and/or laying off bad pitches. Both strike out a ton. Cameron a bit more then Jones, but he also draws more walks. Jones has had some fairly large swings from year to year, but if we assume he's settled into his natural level over the last two years, a typical year for him is something like 270/350 with 35 HR. That's very much in line with what we could see from Mike Cameron next year. Come to think of it, is there any signifigant difference between Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron on the road the last few years, since my expectations for Cameron are based in large part on his road numbers. It turns out there isn't.

(Jones home/raod splits are extremely close, so i won't bother listing them here, though it should be noted he does hit for slightly more power on the road)

Three Year Home/Road Splits

Andruw Jones: 262/344/504 with 105 xbh (55 HR) in 907 AB

Mike Cameron: 278/364/510 with 103 xbh (43 HR) in 851 AB

Interesting isn't it? Jones has hit for a bit more power, with the edge in home runs, but Cameron hit just 2 less xbh in 56 less at bats. And just like Cameron's edge in Avg/OBP is due to his unusually high road numbers in 2001, Jones edge in power is due to Cameron's unsuually low power number on the road in 2003. All things considered, there isn't a whole lot of difference there. And as i alluded too, they're likely the two best defensive center fielders in baseball.

So as i see it, we just got a player whose rather comparable to Andruw Jones. That is, they are two center fielders who play outstnading defense, and if they were to play in the same park, against the same pitchers, they'd probably put up very similar offensive numbers. And we got this player for 3 years/21 million, with a team option for a fourth year.

If nothing else, Mike Cameron is going to help our pitchers immensely. And chances are he's going to hit pretty well too. All at a very reasonable price. It's been said that this isn't the time for the Mets to dip into the free agent market, and for the most part, i agree with that. But when you've got a guy who fills a huge need, at a bargain price considering his skills, you take it. And that's exactly what Mike Cameron was.

2003-12-13T04:51:00.000-05:00

Wow, it's been awhile since i've written a real article. School's done with now, so hopefully that's going to change. The major event in Metland since my last real update was the signing of Kaz Matsui. So let's talk about that.

Kazuo Matsui

1999 JPL age 23: 330/389/482 with 56/75 and 48xbh (15 HR) in 539 AB
2000 JPL age 24: 322/372/560 with 46/60 and 74xbh (23 HR) in 550 AB
2001 JPL age 25: 308/365/496 with 46/83 and 54xbh (24hr) in 552 AB
2002 JPL age 26: 332/389/617 with 53/112 and 88xbh (36hr) in 582 AB
2003 JPL age 27: 305/368/549 with 55/124 and 73xbh (33hr) in 587 AB

And it goes back even further. Kazuo Matsui has been performing at a high level in a league about as hard as AAA for a long, long time. So i have no doubt that he's a very talented baseball player. The question is how well will his offensive game transfer to the majors. Because Matsui better hit, or his signing has to be considered a complete failure, if only because it forced us to move Reyes. So will Matsui hit? I think it depends on which Matsui shows up. It's a safe bet that his power won't translate particularly well. Beyond all the other problems involved in moving to the majors, he's coming to spacious Shea. So a pretty large drop off in IsoP should be expected. Something like 15 HR seems realistic. There's just no way he's going to get by on power here. What's going to make or break Kaz is his ability to make contact and get on base. Everyone's quick to point out that his 2002 numbers are probably a peak season, and that's true, but the .332 part does not strike me as a fluke. Kaz's .309 liftime average is dragged down by 700 at bats in his age 19 and 20 season. Since then he's hit 309, 311, 330, 322, 308, 332, and 305. Four seasons of 305-309, three of 322-332. And there in lies the key. It's reasonable to expect at least some drop off in his average and OBP, but a drop off from 305/365 probably puts him at somewhere in range range of 275/335 to 290/350. The former would be mediocre, the latter good, but repalceable unless his defense is as good as it's supposed to be. However, a drop off from 330/390 probably puts him somewhere in the range of 300/360 to 315/375. At 300/360, we're getting into the area where shortstops are hard to replace. 315/375 and we start talking All Star.

If he swings for the fences, Shea and major league pitchers are going to get the better of him. But if he focuses on his obvious contact ability, hitting ground balls and line drives to all fields, then he can be quite succesful. He could actually use Shea to his advantage, racking up lots of doubles because of his speed and the big outfield. Which brings me to the next question about Matsui, his speed. In this case, i'm completely sold/. Alot of people have pointed out the severe decline in SB rate last year(13 SB/10 CS), and somehow not once have i heard anyone suggest the possibility that it's a fluke. Which is almost certainly what it is. Fluke seasons, both good and bad, occur all the time in regards to batting numbers. Why not stolen bases/SB rate. Let's look a little further. His career stolen base rate is 81.3 %(83% after 2002). In the three previous years, Kaz stole 85 bases, and was caught just 14 times for a success rate of 86%. In 2001 he swiped 26 without being thrown out a single time. Ichiro called Matsui faster then he was. He was probably just being gracious, and may not actually believe that, but for it to even be suggested, it's got to be close. Anyone in the neighborhood of Ichiro is lightning. If he's even close to Ichiro's speed down the line to 1st, or from 1st-3rd/2nd-Home, then noone's going to complain if he isn't stealing bases. That said, it would be a nice asset to have a second 25+ steal, very high success rate guy. Stolen bases are overrated, the havoc they can create with opposing defenses and pitchers isn't.

There's also the question of how good his defense is. To this i really have nothing to add to what you've already read, because i've never seen him play. By all reports he should be very, very good, though there are some question about his arm. I even read one reprt which suggested he had the ability to play defense at a Vizquel like level, though i find that unlikely.

As i mentioned, this signing has to be judged not just on Matsui's success, but on whether it's good enough to have warranted Reyes shift. Reyes had enough on his plate going into his first full major league season, now he's got to learn a new position on top of it. And of course his overall ceiling is lower at second base, because it's notch below shortstop in importance. So what would it take to justify moving Reyes? In my opinion, Matsui will have to be in the upper range of my estimates. He's got to hit 300 or better with an OBP of at least 360-370. He's got to hit at least 15 home runs, provide great speed on the basepaths, and play stellar defense. That's my dividing line. Anything less and the signing is a failure to some degree, depending on how much worse then those numbers he is. Right at those numbers and i'll consider it a success, but not any better then keeping Reyes at short and signing Luis Castillo, since the player i just described is basically Castillo with a little bit more power. Anything above that, and it becomes a truly good sign.

As for Reyes, there is little question he can handle second base. He has all the skills to be a gold glove shortstop. The skills at second are all the same, except it requires less range and less arm strength. If anything Reyes' skills are overkill for the position. An interesting note for us Mets fans. As people get used to Reyes as a second basemen, they're going to start using Roberto Alomar as a comparison for his potential. His ceiling drops a little at second base, but he still projects to be a star at a premium defensive position. Just slightly less premium.

I'd like to belive that Matsui will be a star here, and the decison to move Reyes ( and not make a better offer to Castillo, or simply sign a stopgap) will be justified. However, i have a bad feeling that Matsui is going to be merely good, which of course won't be good enough. Maybe it's just my skepticism after two years of blown offseason moves. I really hope so. Only time will tell.

2003-12-08T05:45:00.000-05:00

Just a quick note. A follow up to what i wrote last week about Joe Sheehan's article on Barry Zito. Barry Zito has the best numbers out of the Oakland trio. Actually it's not even close. Zito has pretty clearly been a better pitcher then Tim Hudson or Mark Mulder. I'm studying for finals, so i don't have time to start posting all the numbers, but if you don't want to take my word for it, go have a look. Zito is no 1 of the three in just about every major statistic. Oh, and he's the youngest of the three too. So if Zito is a middle of the rotation starter with an ace's reputation, what are Mulder and Hudson, career minor leaguers with no 1 starter reputations?

2003-12-06T02:33:00.000-05:00

Reyes to 2nd

Is anyone else starting to feel like Sisyphus, rolling the stone up the hill, only to have it pushed back down by the will of the Gods?

Because i know i am. If we had aquired A-Rod or Nomar, then yes, move Reyes over to second. But for a guy whose never played a game in the majors. Whose power probably isn't going to "translate" well to the majors. I'm pretty sure Kaz Matsui will be a pretty good major leauge player. But good enough to move our 20 year old phenom to second? I doubt it.

2003-12-03T10:48:00.000-05:00

I know i've been saying this alot lately, but i'm just too busy to post this week. Two Finals tommorow, work Fir/Sat/Sun/Mon, two finals tuesday. So unfortuantely there's a decent chance i won't have anything up till next wednesday, except maybe a quick hit or two.

2003-11-25T03:32:00.000-05:00

Warren Spahn (April 23, 1921 - Nov 25, 2003)

Tonight i drank a toast to the winningest pitcher of the live ball era. Two actually, because the first just didn't seem like enough for Warren Spahn. One of the handful of greatest pitchers to ever grace the mound in our beloved game. And one of the two greatest lefties ever (see Koufax, Sandy). His accomplishments can not be described as anything less then extraordinary, amazing, or any other superlatives one could name. Here are just a few:

363 career victories, 382 complete games, 63 shutouts, 2583 strikeouts, 3.09 career ERA in 5243.2 innings, and career ERA+ of 118.

From 1946-1958 Spahn had an ERA + above 100 ever year, and it was above 115 in every year but 1948. Then, after dipping to 98 in 1960, Spahn came back with three straight years of a 124 ERA+. That's almost two decades of excellence.

Thirteen 20 win seasons.

Eleven straight years with 17 or more wins. And it would have been 17 straight years with at least 15 wins if not for a 14 win season in 1952.

Winningest left handed pitcher ever.

All of that is incredible, and it of course is what makes him one of the greatest pitchers ever. None of it though, can sum up Warren Spahn the pitcher like July 2, 1963. On that day 15,921 fans showed up to see the Giant's Juan Marichal face Warren Spahn and his Milwaukee Braves. They were probably expecting a good game based on the pitching matchup, but little did these 16,000 people know that they would witness what was perhaps the greatest baseball game ever played. For sixteen (16!!) scoreless innings, Spahn and Marichal matched each other pitch for pitch. It must have seemed as if there were two robots on the mound, retiring batter after batter, and never seeming to tire. Finally the Giants broke through in the bottom of the 16th on a solo home run by who else, Willie Mays. When it was all over two pitchers had the staggering pitch totals of 201 for Spahn and 227 for Marichal. Never again will anything like that be seen.

What could possibly be more amazing then two pitchers throwing sixteen scoreless innings you ask? How about the fact that Warren Spahn was 42 years old when he did that.

2003-11-24T01:36:00.000-05:00

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, usually one of the best baseball writers around, recently wrote the following:

Honestly, I think the A's traded the wrong left-hander. Lilly is a decent
pitcher who is unlikely to be a star, and well-suited to the big outfield in
Oakland. He's not very highly regarded, which you can probably tell by his
being dealt straight up for Bobby Kielty. The A's got in the trade about
what Lilly is worth.

The key in trading, though, is to swap a player whose perceived value is
greater than his actual value, taking advantage of that gap to come out of a
trade with more talent than you had before. Right now, there are few players
in the game for whom the gap between perception and reality is greater than
Barry Zito. Zito is just one year removed from a Cy Young Award, but he's
been regressing ever since his best year, which was actually 2001.

Year W-L ERA IP BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9
-----------------------------------------------------
2000 7-4 2.72 92.2 4.37 7.58 1.73 0.58
2001 17-8 3.49 214.1 3.36 8.61 2.56 0.76
2002 23-5 2.75 229.1 3.06 7.14 2.33 0.94
2003 14-12 3.30 231.2 3.42 5.67 1.66 0.74

Pull away the Cy Young Award, the association with a great team and two
other great starting pitchers, and the image of the flaky left-hander that
doesn't get bothered by anything, and what you have is a pitcher who is
heavily dependent on his defense and his ballpark, both of which have kept
Zito's ERA down as his core stats regress. Subjectively, Zito has thrown a
ton of pitches from ages 23-25, many of them sharp-breaking, joint-rending
curveballs. He's the worst of the big three pitchers, but the only one with
a gaudy trophy on the mantle. He's marketable, personable, and signed
through 2006 at a total of about $16.5 million.
Zito is a mid-rotation starter with an ace's reputation. Trading him in the
right deal--and the right deal would almost certainly be available--would be
the kind of bold move that would solidify the team's spot atop the AL West
for years to come. Think the Mets wouldn't have to consider a Zito-for-Jose
Reyes trade? The Yankees are falling all over themselves to deal Nick
Johnson and Alfonso Soriano this winter. Either would improve the A's;
getting both--and would you put it past George Steinbrenner to trade
both?--would make them a truly great team. Zito is a SoCal guy; both the
Angels and Dodgers have good prospects within their system and new owners
dying to be loved. The Cubs want a left-hander and appear to have no use for
Juan Cruz or Hee Seop Choi.

There are any number of possibilities, all available because Zito has a
superstar's name and a fourth-year player's price tag. What makes a move
like this sensible is that Zito isn't likely to continue being one of the
league's top pitchers, and I have to believe a performance-conscious
braintrust like the A's have sees the degradation in his performance and
would concur with that idea. All they need to do is leverage that knowledge.

With Lilly gone, the A's have probably sealed off this route, but perhaps
not. After all, they have Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer and Mike Wood
available right now, and Joe Blanton could be ready by midseason. Patching
the hole left by Zito's absence would likely only be a problem for a short
time, and the potential benefits, when you consider Zito's market value, are
huge.

I've got alot of respect for Joe Sheehan, and the work he does, but in the
case, he's very, very wrong. To begin with, he's guilty of
something a great number of writers do from time to time. Sheehan makes it
look like 2001 is Zito's best year. Because for the purpose of his article,
it's real easy to say that Zito had his best year in 2001 and has been
declining since. The problem with this is that 2001 was not Zito's best
year, unless you live in bizzarro world. I like sabermetrics, which means i
look at strike out and walk rates alot. And yes, by those stats 2001 was
Zito's best year. But strike outs and walks are'nt everything folks. They're
just good indicators of success or failure, they do not determine it.
Sometimes sabermetric minded writers are too quick to focus only onthe
indicators, and not on the actual performance. As is typical in situations
when someone is trying to come to a certain conclusion, Sheehan shows only
the stats which help him. He leaves out the rest of Zito's numbers.

2001: 214.1 IP, 184 H, 83 ER, 18 HR, 30 2B, 80 BB, 205 K, 3.49 ERA, 1.23
WHIP, 125 ERA+, 8.61 K/9, 2.56 K/BB, .76 HR/9, .230/.307/.345 against.

2002: 229.1 IP, 182 H, 70 ER, 24 HR, 24 2B, 78 BB, 182 K, 2.75 ERA, 1.13
WHIP, 169 ERA+, 7.14 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, .94 HR/9, .218/.286/.340

In 2002 Zito pitched 15 more innings. In those 15 more innings he gaveup 2
less hits, 13 less earned runs, and walked two less batters. He gave up 6
more home runs, but 6 less doubles, and did strike out 23 less batters in 15
more innings. His ERA was three quarters of a run lower in 2002. It was 69
% better then the leauge ERA in 2002, 25 % better in 2001. His WHIP was .10
lower. In 2002 opponents hit for lower Avg/OBP/SLG then in 2001. Their
IsoP was 7 points higher, which is essentially meaningless.

Let's review. In 2002 Zito pitched 15 more innings. He gave up less hits
and earned runs, had a better ERA, a better ERA compared to the league, a
lower WHIP, and held opposing batters to lower numbers. The only way in
which Zito was worse in 2002 then 2001 was that he struck out one and a half
less batters per game, and 6 doubles turned into home runs. He actually
gave up one less extra base hit in 2002 ( 4 triples in 2001, 3 in 2002), in
15 more innings.

Barry Zito was a much, much better pitcher in 2002 then in 2001. That's not
my opinion, that's a fact. By any objective measure 2002 was the better
year. There's simply no way to argue that one and a half less strike outs
per 9 innings, and 6 doubles getting over the wall out weighs being a good
deal better in every other conceivable way that a pitcher can be. I can't
imagine that Sheehan actually believes this. Even the most sabermetric
minded person can't be that blinded by strike out and home runs rates that
they can ignore every other statistic, can they? More likely, Sheehan knows
his case is faulty, but makes it anyway because it suits his article, and
he's pobably got a deadline, like most professional writers do.

What about his other claim? That Zito is a pitcher aided greatly by his
defense and his ballpark. Well, i don't know any great way of measuring
team defense, but as for the home park, let's look at his splits.

Three Year Average (2001-2003)

Home: 322 IP, 270 H, 111 ER, 31 HR, 3.10 ERA, .227 Avg against
Away: 353.1 IP, 282 H, 127 ER, 30 HR, 3.24 ERA .218 Avg against

32 more innings, an ERA difference of .14, a lower opponents average and less home runs on the road. So where's this huge advantage he's getting
fromhis home park? Rob Neyer wrote recently that just because a pitcher isn't pitching better at home (assuming home is a pitcher's park, and actually he wrote this about hitters, but it would have to apply to pitching too) doesn't mean his home park isn't helping him. It means that without the help of his home park, the home numbers would be worse then they are. But where's the logic in this? If Zito's home numbers are helped as much as some claim by Network Associates Collisseum, that would mean that he's actually a much worse pitcher at home then on the road, because his road numbers are just as good as his home numbers. And wouldn't that necessarily mean that the park is actually hurting Zito? If the home numbers being in line with his road numbers is only a factor of his home park, and without the advantage he gets from his home park they'd be a good deal worse then the road numbers, then Zito is obviously a better pitcher on the road then at home, right, despite the fact that his home park is supposedly helping him. So how can the park be helping him and hurting him at the same time? Is there some flaw in my logic i'm not seeing? Throw all the math in the world at me, i don't see how the massive contradiction i just laid out can be argued with.

Isn't things like this the reason that road numbers are considered the better test of a pitcher's true ability? That's exactly what statistical minded people have been arguing for years. Well, Zito is one hell of a pitcher on the road. Once again, i doubt that Joe Sheehan is un aware of any of this. The man knows much more about baseball and statistical analysis then i do. He has to know that what he wrote about Zito doesn't hold up to even my modest scrutiny. Barry Zito is not a middle of the rotation picher with an ace's reputation. He is an ace with an ace's reputation. He's a 25 year old lefty with one of the best curveballs of his era, and a 3.12 career ERA in 768 innings. His ERA has never been hgiher then 3.49. Middle of the rotation starter? I don't think so.

2003-11-21T01:35:00.000-05:00

Well, the Islanders lost, but i had a blast at the hockey game. Best seats i've ever had. If anyone watched the game tonight, the guy right next to the Lightning bench in the front row wearing the Islanders road jersey (um.. i guess it's the home jersey now actually, the dark one. That was me.

Anyway, let's get back top the topic at hand. See below if you havent read the beginning yet.

3. A competent center fielder. I don't even mean one competent with the bat. I'll settle for one that's just good with the glove at this point. No we're not going to compete anyway, but if i have to live through something like Cedeno patrolling center again i'll go insane. Eventually we'll need one that can hit too of course. We have'nt had a a good all around center fielder since Lenny Dykstra. The middle of Shea's outfield has been a black hole since then, or as i like to call it, the Juan Samuel Event Horizon. In a spacious park like Shea, this is an absolute necessity.

4. Speed. Now we all know i like "the new math", so i'm no huge advocate of the stolen base. I am big however, on the extra base, and the free outs. 1st to 3rd. 2nd to home. Little tappers beat out to 1st. Errors caused by an over anxious fielder. Lots of little things that speed does. I'll take the slow guy who gets on base 40% of the time and hit 35 jacks any day, but every good team needs at least a couple of guys who can put pressure on the opposing defense, and take extra bases on hits. Right now we've got one in Jose Reyes (I'm not counting Cedeno). I'd like to add at least one more guy with good speed. Again, this is'nt about the stolen base, but since it's the simplest way to estimate a guy's speed, let's say at least a 20-30 SB guy.

Those are the four basic needs of our line up, as i see them. Not that i'm advocating trying to compete next year, but all this would help for 2005 and beyond if the right guy is available. Even if we slot David Wright and Justin Huber into the lineup for the second half of 2005, and we assume Phillips is still with the organization, pushing him to RF, none of this changes. We still need a center fielder that's at least adequate. The need for another left handed bat becomes even greater. Wright and Huber are both righties. If the rest fo the line up is still the same, which is entirely possible, that leaves us at 1 lefty, 1 switch, 5 righties(second base being the one position open). This need becomes a whole lot easier to fill if Piazza is not re signed after 2005. That opens up 1st base, meaning we can sign a lefty bat at 1st, or put Phillips at 1st again and sign an outfielder, whichever is the better option given whose available. Not only does it give us more options, it's a whole lot easier to find a good left handed hitter at 1st or in a corner outfield spot then at second base. And of course neither Huber or Wright is particularly fast. Wright is by all accunts a very smart player, who makes superb use of his decent but not great speed. Even still, we need another guy who has real speed. The smartest base running in the world is'nt going to help you beat out the double play, or make a defender rush a throw to 1st, etc etc. The only thing i can see changing here is the need for a leadoff hitter, depending on Reyes developement. The speed, switch hitting ability, phenomenal stolen base rate, good contact, and lack of signifigant power still strikes me as a template for a lead off hitter. And yes, i know Reyes is only 20 and all, but i just don't see him ever being a middle of the order run producer. Reyes is the type of player who should score 100+ runs a year, not collect 100 + RBI. That said, he showed surprising pop for his frame last year, and he is only 20, it should only get better and better as he developes not just as a baseball player, but physically. So i can see Reyes being a 20 HR a year guy. Which would probably mean we'd want to back Reyes up a slot to the no. 2 hole. Which of course would create a need for a lead off hitter.

As for the pitching. I really don't see a whole lot of room for anyone right now, let alone any needs. We've got a whole slew of good relief candidates, and if we assume Heilman will be given another shot, five starters pencilled in. On that note, i think Heilman has to be given another shot. He was a first round draft pick just two years ago. He's developed and veryprojectible. He's got 4 quality pitches that he can throw for strikes, and best of all, a very good minor leauge track record. Half a season of struggles in the majors is'nt enough for me to lose confidence that he's going to be a good pitcher for years to come. Between Seo, Heilman, Kazmir, Peterson, and DeNardo, we've got five real good pitching prospects. We have to know more about all of them, and which continue to progress before we can assess what's needed to compliment the ones that make it. That said, eventually we'll probably need at least one more top of the rotation starter, since expecting to get more then one ace out of the five youngsters is unreasonable. Unless Rick Peterson is as good as Oakland has made him look. Which brings me to our one true pitching need, and the single thing we can do to return to respectability in 2004 and to competition after that:

Have the good sense to stay the hell out of Peterson's way. Let him do this thing with no interference. So far so good, as the Mets have given Peterson complete authority over pitching in the entire organization. I do have a question though. How is it that the Wilpons are smart enough to hold out for Peterson, then give him complete control, and yet not smart enough to at least interview Paul DePodesta? It's not like this is a big stretch. He's in the same organization, and they obviously have at least some appreciation with the way that organization does things. I like Duquette a whole lot. I think he's going to be an excellent GM, and so far he's done a great job. But bringing DePodesta and Peterson over together would have been amazing. We would have joined Oakland, Boston, and Toronto as an "enlightened" ( my own completely biased word) organization. I don't think i need to tell you how happy that would have made me. But hey, like i said, i like the Duke, and Peterson is one hell of a first step.

2003-11-17T23:21:00.000-05:00

Barry won his sixth MVP award today, and third straight. He was expected to win of course. And Barry setting new heights in the sport has become commonplace. Despite it all though, i continue to be amazed by Mr. Bonds. Maybe it's because at 22 years old i've never been fortunate enough to see this kind of all time great before in baseball. With regards to positional players anyway, which is who everyone tends to think of when naming the greatest to ever play the sport. I've seen lots and lots of superstars, Hall of Famers even, but in my lifetime there has been no Willie Mays, no Ted Williams or Babe Ruth. Until Barry. Not that we should necessarily have expected there to be, given how rare players of this caliber are. I'm sure that contributes to the awe with which i watch Bonds as well. I know that we may not see another player like this for another 20 years after Barry. Whatever the reason, i'm going to have a real good time watching Barry chase the Babe, and then Aaron. As i'm sure all of you will too.

Anyway, back to the Mets

State of the Mets - Part 2

I said that most of this article will be about 2004 and beyond, rather then a recap of the 2003 season. And it will be, so here is the last reference to the 2003 season.

2003 Mets

C: Mike Piazza / Vance Wilson
1B: Mo Vaugh / Jason Phillips
2B: Roberto Alomar / several others
SS: Rey Sanchez / Jose Reyes
3B: Ty Wigginton
LF: Cliff Floyd
RF: Jeromy Burnitz / Roger Cedeno
CF: Roger Cedeno / Timo Perez
Bench: Joe McEwing, Tony Clark, Raul Gonzalez, Jay Bell

SP: Tom Glavine
SP: Al Leiter
SP: Steve Traschel
SP: Jae Weong Seo
SP: Pedro Astacio / Grant Roberts

RP: David Weathers
RP: Mike Stanton

A whole assortment of other guys, out of whom Pedro Feliciano, Dan Wheeler, and Jamie Cerda had the most innings. Also remember that Franco got regular action after returning from surgery. And Graeme Lloyd was a regular before being traded to Kansas City.

Closer: Armando Benitez

That's it folks. Caeser has cross the Rubicon. There will be no more talk of the failure that was the 2003 Mets.

Here's what we've got so far for 2004

C: Mike Piazza / Jason Phillips
1B: Jason Phillips / Mike Piazza
2B: ???
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: Ty Wigginton
LF: Cliff FLoyd
CF: ???
RF: ???
Bench: Joe McEwing, Vance Wilson, ???

SP: Tom Glacine
SP: Al Leiter
SP: Steve Traschel
SP Jae Weong Seo
SP ?, but with Aaron Heilman the overwhelming favorite if noone is signed

RP: David Weathers
RP: Mike Stanton
RP 3-5: ???
Closer: ???

The wholes by position are obvious. So let's take a look at what we do have, to get a better idea of what type of players we should be trying to aquire for the vacant positions. Just one note before i begin. What i'm going to try and look at here is the ideal type of player to compliment our current strengths and weaknesses. But given our recent trend, i think we'd all be more then happy for a "prouctive" player period, regardless if he has exactly the same strengths and weaknesses as some other guys on the team. An unbalanced productive team is at least still productive.

1B/Catcher: Jason Phillips / Mike Piazza

You know, in any decently run organization, one of the elite right handed hitters in the leauge would have been moved from behind the plate long before age 35.

At 29: .328/.390/.570
At 30: .303/.361/.575
At 31: .324/.398/.614
At 32: .300/.384/.573
At 33: .280/.359/.544
At 34: .286/.377/.483 ( this can really be disregarded because of the injury, before which Piazza was hitting .333/.422/.613)

Yes, we're really only talking about one down year here. A year in which the entire team collapsed around him. But even as new analysis provides evidence to the contrary of more and more "conventional baseball wisdoms", a great many of them still remain true. One of them is that if you have a catcher who can hit, it's a real good idea to move him somewhere else as he passes 30, to preserve his bat. We're taking steps in the right direction, but i have a bad feeling that Piazza is going to continue to get more then half the catching duty even after he gets his catcher's home run record. Another 100 games on the knees, another 100 games with the increased chance of injury. He's not that far removed from a Piazza like season. If he stays healthy, it's not at all unreasonable to see Piazza like numbers again this year. But at 35, there's a real strong chance he's not going to be healthy trying to catch 90 + games.

Now that i've gotten that rant out, let's actually take a look at the position. I think we can expect a split at catcher something in the nature of Piazza 90. Philips 60, with a dozen or so left over for Vance Wilson. Phillips will spend the majority of games at first, with Piazza geting maybe 50 starts there, and Tony Clark or his replacement starting when Phillips is catching and Piazza rested.

If Phillips season was'nt a fluke, this will be excellent production for the two positions. Of course a lot is expected of a first basemen, but very very little of a catcher. So if you slot Piazza's production in at first, and Phillips at catcher, we should be well above average in both areas. Piazza, if he's healthy, provides well above average contact, on base skills and power, but either at catcher or at 1st will be a defensive liability. Phillips provides contact, on base skills, and solid defense at a premium(read: up the middle) position. When he plays there anyway. He did a very good job of adapting to 1st last year, and is at least adequate there now. So no matter whcih of them is at which position, we're looking at one spot solid defensively, and another lacking. Obviously its preferablly to have the strength at catcher.

Shorstop: Jose Reyes

Reyes has the potential to contribute in every possible way a positional player can. But his power or on base skills are'nt developed yet, so let's stick to what he actually provides right now. Contact, defense at a premium position (both range and arm), and speed. I think it's unreasonable to expect a repeat of July and August, but the major leauge average for shortstops was .265/.325/.399 last year. It's not at all unreasonable to expect him to be a good bit above that.

Third Base: Ty Wigginton

At this point, Wigginton does'nt bring a whole lot to the table, outside of good defense at a semi premium (read: third base) position. He's demonstrated some decent contact ability at times, but they trailed off sharply as the season wore on. Still though, he's about average for third base, which is extremely weak around the majors right now, and a few small adjustments could leaves him as a very useful player, with above average production for his position.

Left Field: Cliff Floyd

Floyd has always been productive. He just has problems staying healthy. Last year was no exception, playing through pain for the entire year before shutting it down two months early to have surgery. When he manages to stay i the lineup, Floyd provides good contact, good plate discipline, and above average power. He's adequate in left.

That's what we've got for our line up so far. There are three gaping holes, and question marks about all of the five guys we do have penciled in. But you know something else? All five of them are pretty good hitters, except Wigginton, who could be with a few adjustments and some more patience. We can reasonably expect above average production for there position from four of the five. That's pretty good. We're not going to be striking fear into any pitchers, but a coupleof decent stopgaps, one solid player, a decent bench, and we could be a respectable offensive club.

So what is it that we need, ideally? ( I'm not going to speculate, or offer my opinion on possible signings in this. There will be plenty of that in fortchoming articles)

1. Another left handed power bat. Phillips, Wigginton and Piazza all bat right handed. Reyes of course is a switch hitter, and while he is far better from the left side, he does'nt have more then the occasional flash of power yet. Is one switch hitter and one left handed hitter that unbalanced when you've only got 5 guys slotted in? Not at all, but if it doesn't increase as that goes to 8, then it becomes unblanced. Most the pitchers in baseball are right handed, left handers generally hit right handers better then other right handers do. You do the math.

2. A table setter. I still think Reyes skill set is best suited to batting leadoff, or perhaps no 2, though there's a growing number of fans that think he'll wind up as a no. 3 type guy. In either case, he's pretty clearly not suited for batting lead off just yet. Great as he was, that OBP was still low, and he does'nt take a whole lot of pitches. Sure, he could come out and dramatically improve, yet again. But i'm being realistic here in thinking that Reyes will come out and have a solid, productive year that will be good for his developement, but is not going to do anything spectacular. So that leaves us with a need for a leadoff man. Out of the current options, i'd nominate Jason Phillips. If not at leadoff, then certainly at no 2.

Bah ran out of time, gotta leave to go watch the Islanders. Living in Tampa, i don't get to do this very often, don't want to be late.

2003-11-16T04:03:00.000-05:00

2500 word paper due tommorow, been working on it all week. State of the Mets part 2 coming soon

2003-11-11T01:40:00.000-05:00

Straying from the State of the Mets topic for a moment, i have a couple of things i'd like to say.

The poor man's Andruw Jones

Please stop all the Preston Wilson talk. Should'nt everyone, even those who don't like "the new math" realize by now how drastically Coors "Lite" Field inflates offensive numbers? I actually read an article which said "the Mets could wind up in the delicious position of pursuing Mookie's stepson to patrol centerfield at Shea". All due respect to Mark Hale over at the New York Post, but he must have been smoking something when he described the possibility of bringing in Preston Wilson as a "delicious position".

Preston Wilson - 2003

Home .302/.370/.591

Away .260/.316/.479

Even including his season in Colorado, Wilson has never batted above .282, he's never had an OBP over .350, and it's usually more in the .330 range. Then there's this disturbing list

Preston Wilson's BB/K

1999 46/156
2000 55/187
2001 36/107 (played only 123 games)
2002 58/140
2003 54/139

That's just scary. And at 29 years old, he's not likely to ever improve upon it. Does he have some power? Absolutely. 26, 31, 23, 23, and 36 HR's since 1999, and he always hits at least a decent amount of doubles. That's great for a center fielder, but is it enough to justify a mediocre average, a pitiful OBP and an insanely high amount of strike outs? The answer is a resounding no.

P.S. I call him a poor man's Andruw Jones because they have basically the exact same strengths and weaknesses. Power, defense, and some speed vs lack of contact, low obp, and high strike outs. The difference is that Jones justifies it because his strengths are greater and his weaknesses not as glaring. And because he is the best defensive CF since some guy named Mays. Seriously though, has anyone ever seen Andruw lay off the low and away breaking ball, ever?

A lot can happen in a second

The second thing i wanted to talk about is the Rookie of the Year voting. In a single moment, i gained a new level of respect for baseball writers across the country, and then went right back to believing that most of them lack any kind of creative ability to "think outside the box", and spend most their time writing and re writing the same un enlightened, un intelligent articles. The new found respect came when i saw that the writers had selected Angel Berroa as AL rookie of the year. Finally i said, the writers made an enlightened choice. They looked past the hype, media attention, and inflated RBI totals of Hideki Matsui to pick the under appreciated rookie shortstop. Brave to to the voters.

And then i scanned down a little further, i saw the NL rookie of the year vote, and it all came crashing down. I guess i should have expected it, but i can't believe that the voters thought Dontrelle Willis was the best rookie in the National League.

Dontrelle Willis 160 IP, 148 IP, 59 ER, 142 K, 58 BB, 13 HR, 3.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.95 K/9, 2.45 K/BB, .245/.313/.385 (opponents numbers)
Brandon Webb 180.2 IP, 140 H, 57 ER, 172 K, 68 BB, 12 HR, 2.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.57 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, .212/.295/.307

That's not even close. Webb pitched 20 more innings, gave up 8 less hits, 1 less home run and 2 less earned runs. He had a lower ERA, lower WHIP, higher K/9 and higher K/BB ratio. And hitters numbers against aren't even close.

Dontrelle Willis was very good. Brandon Webb was one of the five or six best pitchers in the National League. 4th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, 3rd in Opp Avg, 7th in Opp OBP, 1st in Opp SLG, 2nd in Opp OPS. And the fact that that performance will not be rewarded by the rookie of the year award is astonishing. There's no doubt who was the better pitcher here. But Dontrelle gets all the attention, he was the darling of baseball at the all star break, and he's lucky enough to play for a team that came out of baseball purgatory this year to win the World Series. Yes, he helped them make the playoffs, but this is'nt the MVP award, and there's just no way to argue that Willis was even close to as good as Brandon Webb.

2003-11-06T19:59:00.000-05:00

State of the Mets

Today i'll begin my state of the mets report. This was going to be strictly a review of the 2003 major leauge season, but i decided that was pointless. So while i will spend a good deal of time going over what happened in the 2003, the focus of this article will be on next season and beyond.

Let's begin with the major events of the last year, as i see them:

1. Jim Duquette replaces Steve Phillips as GM

As i wrote last Thursday, i really don't think Phillips was a bad GM. He had his flaws to be sure, but he was one of the hardest working executives in the game, constantly on the phone with other GMs to explore potential trades. He just was'nt qualified to be making talent decisions. The organization definately needed a change though. The miserable last couple of years demanded it, especially in New York. And as Herman Edwards said last year, when you need to shake up a team, you don't replace the offensive linemen. So Phillips had to go, and Duquette was the obvious succesor. If we did'nt want him, quite a few organizations would be more then happy to take him as there GM jobs open up. Though his people skills are said to be superb, a stark contrast to Phillips, Duquette is also an administrative GM. The key will be to surround the Duke with experienced talent evaluators to advise him. Overall, i think this is a positive move. Phillips needed to go, and Duquette is one of the brightest young executives in the game.

2. Art Howe replaces Bobby Valentine as Manager

I'm not as down on Art Howe as most people. I'd like to see him get angry once in awhile, and his game management leaves something to be desired, but he did a very good job with the young Oakland team. So as this team gets younger, i think he could be a decent manager. That said, i loved Bobby Valentine. As i documented in one of my earliest posts, he is one of the only managers in major leauge history whose teams have consistently won more games then their runs scored / runs allowed says they should. He was one of the most intelligent managers in the game, and he was a great in game manager, not counting the infamous Kenny Rogers decision in the '99 NLCS. And he clearly gave a shit. Name me another manager who would sneak back into the dugout wearing a cheesy disguise after getting ejected. So i look at this as a downgrade. Hopefully New York will wake Art up a bit.

3. Jose Reyes

I'm a rather stubborn person, but when im clearly wrong i'll admit it. And i was quite clearly wrong about Jose Reyes. Many of my early articles were filled with comments about how Reyes belonged in AAA. And then Jose Reyes shut me and every other critic up. I won't go over the numbers again. You all know them, you've read them here and on every other Mets site. Sufficed to say that Reyes is here to stay, and so far he's lived up to all the hype.

4. The trades of Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, and Armando Benitez for several prospects

Out with the old, in with the new. Out went the disaster that was Alomar, the fragile and hated Benitez, and Burnitz who thankfully had restored his trade value. In came Victor Diaz, Royce Ring, and a bunch of arms. This was the final abandonment of the failed rebuilding efforts of the last two years. As many symbols of that failure as possible were shipped out in return for a decent set of prospects that if nothing else added valuable depth to our system. Roger Cedeno would have been moved as well, except noone would take his contract. In addition to adding organizational depth, these trades freed up money, and cleared spots for several young players to get some major league experience after the all star break. Definately a step in the right direction.

5. Mo Vaughn goes onto the DL indefinately

Do i feel bad for Mo Vaughn? Yes. Do i believe he honestly wants to do everything he can to once again become a great hitter? Sure. But facts are facts. Vaugh has been awful since he put on a Mets uniform. He's due an obscene amount of money next year, something like 18 million. If he stays on the DL, insurance covers 75% of that. I wish Mo Vaugh all the best in the world, i hope his knees recover and he's able to play again for many years to come. Just not till 2005, when he's no longer under contract with us.

6. Al Leiter comes off the DL to be one of the 5 best pitchers of the second half

Ok, i admit that this is partly self serving because a) Senator Al is my favorite baseball player right now and b) i told all the Leiter critics that they were wrong when they started writing him off in June. But this has to be considered one of the biggest events of the season. It reestablished him as a top left starter. And with Leiter pitching like an ace, and Traschel enjoying his second good year in a row, the rotation was actually decent in the second half. In my admittedly biased opinion, i expected Leiter to have a very good 2004.

7. Mike Piazza starts the move to first base

It's about damn time. This should prolong his time as an elite hitter, and his career. And it clears the way for a catcher who can play defense, probably Jason Phillips for now, and hopefully Justin Huber in the future.

8. Jason Phillips

Jason Phillips was a total surprise. Sure, when i look now i see that he actually has a good minor leauge track record. But who knew? He handles the bat real well, great plate discipline, gap power. And he's a catcher. Phillips could be a real nice find.

9. Tom Glavine

What the hell happened here? He did'nt lose his stuff, because he never really had any to begin with outside of a superb circle change. And you don't lose a change up with age. Questec? I have'nt seen an update, but at one time Glavine was pitching signifgantly better in non Questec parks. And in regards to Shea, should'nt at least some of the Questect effect, assuming there is one, be negated by the fact that Shea is a pitcher's park? Hitters come to Shea and fall apart, not pitchers. We can only hope this isn't the beginning of a trend that some say started in the second half of 2002.

10. The failed pursual of Lou Pinella

Ok, this is a stretch, i just wanted a tenth. But still, this was a pretty big deal. Pinella is one of the most highly regarded managers in the game, and was obviously our first choice. Actually, he would've fit in just like Valentine. Pinella is not afraid to show emotion, and he obviously cares about winning. And he manages a good game to. Him and Valentine are actually very similar. Unfortuantely Seattle asked for too much. There initial offer for compensation was Jose Reyes. The talks died shortly after, and we settled for Artie.